Numerical investigation of alternative fracture stiffness measures and their respective scaling behaviours

We study the mechanical deformation of fractures under normal stress, via tangent and specific fracture stiffnesses, for different length scales using numerical simulations and analytical insights. First, we revisit an equivalent elastic layer model that leads to two expressions: the tangent stiffness is the sum of an “intrinsic” stiffness and the normal stress, and the specific stiffness is the tangent stiffness divided by the fracture aperture at current stress. Second, we simulate the deformation of rough fractures using a boundary element method where fracture surfaces represented by elastic asperities on an elastic half‐space follow a self‐affine distribution. A large number of statistically identical “parent” fractures are generated, from which sub‐fractures of smaller dimensions are extracted. The self‐affine distribution implies that the stress‐free fracture aperture increases with fracture length with a power law in agreement with the chosen Hurst exponent. All simulated fractures exhibit an increase in the specific stiffness with stress and an average decrease with increase in length consistent with field observations. The simulated specific and tangent stiffnesses are well described by the equivalent layer model provided the “intrinsic” stiffness slightly decreases with fracture length following a power law. By combining numerical simulations and the analytical model, the effect of scale and stress on fracture stiffness measures can be easily separated using the concept of “intrinsic” stiffness. We learn that the primary reason for the variability in specific stiffness with length comes from the fact that the typical aperture of the self‐affine fractures itself scales with the length of the fractures.     

A test case for anomalous fading correction in IRSL dating

Infrared-stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating of feldspars has the potential to date deposits beyond the age range of quartz optical (OSL) dating. Successful application of feldspar IRSL dating is, however, often precluded due to anomalous-fading, the tunnelling of electrons from one defect site to another. In this paper we test procedures proposed for anomalous-fading correction by comparing feldspar IRSL and quartz OSL dating results on a suite of samples from continental deposits from the southeastern Netherlands. We find that even after anomalous-fading correction IRSL ages underestimate the burial age of the deposits and argue that this may be a consequence of a dependency of anomalous fading rate on the dose rate and on the absorbed dose.     

Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse,northwest Europe)

We used a calibrated coupled climate–hydrological model to simulate Meuse discharge over the late Holocene (4000–3000 BP and 1000–2000 AD). We then used this model to simulate discharge in the twenty-first century under SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1, with and without future land use change. Mean discharge and medium-sized high-flow (e.g. Q₉₉) frequency are higher in 1000–2000 AD than in 4000–3000 BP; almost all of this increase can be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture. In the twentieth century, mean discharge and the frequency of medium-sized high-flow events are higher than in the nineteenth century; this increase can be attributed to increased (winter half-year) precipitation. Between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, anthropogenic climate change causes a further increase in discharge and medium-sized high-flow frequency; this increase is of a similar order of magnitude to the changes over the last 4,000 years. The magnitude of extreme flood events (return period 1,250-years) is higher in the twenty-first century than in any preceding period of the time-slices studied. In contrast to the long-term influence of deforestation on mean discharge, changes in forest cover have had little effect on these extreme floods, even on the millennial timescale.     

Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century

Flood risks of deltaic areas increase because of population growth, economic development, land subsidence and climatic changes such as sea-level rise. In this study, we analyze trends in flood exposure by combining spatially explicit historical, present, and future land-use data with detailed information on the maximum flood inundation in the Netherlands. We show that the total amount of urban area that can potentially become inundated due to floods from the sea or main rivers has increased six-fold during the 20th century, and may double again during the 21st century. Moreover, these developments took, and probably will take, place in areas with progressively higher potential inundation depths. Potential flood damage has increased exponentially over the 20th century (16 times) and is expected to continue to increase exponentially (∼ten-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a high economic growth scenario. Flood damages increase more moderately (two- to three-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a low growth scenario. The capacity to deal with catastrophic flood losses - expressed as the ratio damage/GDP - will, however, decrease slightly in the low growth scenario (by about 20%). This trend deviates from the historical trend of the 20th century, which shows an increasing capacity to cope with flood damage (almost doubling). Under the high growth scenario the capacity to deal with such losses eventually increases slightly (by about 25%). These findings illustrate that, despite higher projections of potential flood damage, high economic growth scenarios may not necessarily be worse than low growth scenarios in terms of the impact of floods.     

Novel applications of fluid inclusions and isotope geochemistry in unravelling the genesis of fossil travertine systems

The Denizli Basin is a fault‐bounded Neogene–Quaternary depression located in the Western Anatolian Extensional Province, Western Turkey. The basin is a unique geological site with abundant active and fossil (Quaternary) travertine and tufa deposits. Fluid inclusion microthermometry and isotopic analysis were applied to study the genesis of the Ball?k fossil travertine deposits, located in the south‐eastern part of the basin. Microthermometry on fluid inclusions indicates that the main travertine precipitating and cementing fluids are characterized by low salinity (<0·7 wt% NaCl equivalent) and variable temperatures that cluster at <50°C and ca 100°C. Fluids of meteoric origin have been heated by migration to the deeper subsurface, possibly in a local high geothermal gradient setting. A later uncommon cementation phase is related to a fluid with a significantly higher salinity (25·5 to 26·0 wt% bulk). The fluid obtained its salinity by interaction with Late Triassic evaporite layers. Strontium isotopes indicate that the parent carbonate source rock of the different travertine precipitates is very likely to be the Triassic limestone of the Lycian Nappes. Carbon isotopes suggest that the parent CO₂ gas originated from thermal decarbonation of the Lycian limestones with minor contributions of magmatic degassing and organic soil CO₂. Oxygen isotopes confirm the meteoric origin of the fluids and indicate disequilibrium precipitation because of evaporation and degassing. Results were integrated within the available geological data of the Denizli Basin in a generalized travertine precipitation model, which enhanced the understanding of fossil travertine systems. The study highlights the novel application of fluid inclusion research in unravelling the genesis of continental carbonates and provides several recommendations for hydrocarbon exploration in travertine‐bearing sedimentary basins. The findings suggest that travertine bodies and their parent carbonate source rocks have the potential to constitute interesting subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs.