The Inclusion of Stakeholder Knowledge and Perspectives in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

Over the past few decades Integrated Assessment (IA) has emerged as an approach to link knowledge and action in a way that is suitable to accommodate uncertainties, complexities and value diversities of global environmental risks. Responding to the complex nature of the climate problem and to the changing role of climate change in the international climate policy process, the scientific community has started to include stakeholder knowledge and perspectives in their assessments. Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is in its early stage of development. Methodology varies strongly across PIA projects. This paper analyzes four recent IA projects of climate change that included knowledge or perspectives from stakeholders in one-way or another. Approaches and methods used turn out to differ in whether stakeholders are involved actively or passively, whether the approach is bottom-up or top-down, and whether the different functions in the IA process are open or closed to stakeholder input. Also, differences can be seen in the degree to which boundaries are pre-set that limit the roles and domains of competencies attributed to each scientific or non-scientific participant (so-called boundary work). The paper discusses pros and cons of the various approaches identified, and outlines heuristics and considerations to assist those who plan, design or fund new IA processes with stakeholder input on what approaches best to choose in view of the objectives for stakeholder involvement, in view of the role that the IA plays in the overall risk management process and in view of considerations regarding boundary work.     

A very rare triple-peaked type-I X-ray burst in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636−53

We have discovered a triple-peaked X-ray burst from the low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) 4U 1636−53 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ( RXTE ). This is the first triple-peaked burst reported from any LMXB using RXTE , and it is only the second burst of this kind observed from any source. (The previous one was also from 4U 1636−53, and was observed with EXOSAT .) From fits to time-resolved spectra, we find that this is not a radius-expansion burst, and the same triple-peaked pattern seen in the X-ray light curve is also present in the bolometric light curve of the burst. Similar to what was previously observed in double-peaked bursts from this source, the radius of the emitting area increases steadily during the burst, with short periods in between during which the radius remains more or less constant. The temperature first increases steeply, and then decreases across the burst also showing three peaks. The first and last peak in the temperature profile occur, respectively, significantly before and after the first and last peaks in the X-ray and bolometric light curves. We found no significant oscillations during this burst. This triple-peaked burst, as well as the one observed with EXOSAT and the double-peak bursts in this source, all took place when 4U 1636−53 occupied a relatively narrow region in the colour–colour diagram, corresponding to a relatively high (inferred) mass-accretion rate. No model presently available is able to explain the multiple-peaked bursts.     

Rock crevices determine woody and herbaceous plant cover in the karst critical zone

The study of the critical zones(CZs) of the Earth link the composition and function of aboveground vegetation with the characteristics of the rock layers, providing a new way to study how the unique rock and soil conditions in karst regions affect the aboveground vegetation. Based on survey results of the rocks, soils and vegetation in the dolomite and limestone distribution areas in the karst area of central Guizhou, it was found that woody plant cover increases linearly with the number of cracks with a width of more than 1 mm, while the cover of herbaceous plants shows the opposite trend(p0.01). The dolomite distribution area is characterized by undeveloped crevices, and the thickness of the soil layer is generally less than 20 cm, which is suitable for the distribution of herbaceous plants with shallow roots. Due to the development of crevices in the limestone distribution area, the soil is deeply distributed through the crevices for the deep roots of trees, which leads to a diversified species composition and a complicated structure in the aboveground vegetation. Based on moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) remote sensing data from 2001 to 2010, the normalized differentiated vegetation index(NDVI) and annual net primary productivity(NPP) results for each phase of a 16-day interval further indicate that the NDVI of the limestone distribution area is significantly higher than that in the dolomite distribution area, but the average annual NPP is the opposite. The results of this paper indicate that in karst CZs, the lithology determines the structure and distribution of the soil, which further determines the cover of woody and herbaceous plants in the aboveground vegetation. Although the amount of soil in the limestone area may be less than that in the dolomite area, the developed crevice structure is more suitable for the growth of trees with deep roots, and the vegetation activity is strong. At present, the treatment of rocky desertification in karst regions needs to fully consider the rock-soilvegetation-air interactions in karst CZs and propose vegetation restoration measures suitable for different lithologies.     

南加州地壳的伴随层析成像

使用基于伴随方法的反演策略,研制出了南加州地壳的三维地震模型。该模型涉及到16次层析成像迭代,需要6800次波场模拟和总计80万个中心处理单位小时。与南加州地震中心给出的最初三维模型比较,该新的地壳模型揭示了更强的非均匀性,包括±30%的局部变化。模型说明了诸如沉积盆地和横跨断层的构造反差的浅部特征。也揭示了深部的地壳特征,从而帮助重建诸如俯冲捕获洋壳碎块的南加州构造。新模型有助于对地震危险性做出更实际而准确的评估。     

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

     

Bridging the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Turbulence in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

With a focus towards developing multiscale capabilities in numerical weather prediction models, the specific problem of the transition from the mesoscale to the microscale is investigated. For that purpose, idealized one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model framework. It is demonstrated that switching from one-dimensional turbulent diffusion in the mesoscale model to three-dimensional LES mixing does not necessarily result in an instantaneous development of turbulence in the LES domain. On the contrary, very large fetches are needed for the natural transition to turbulence to occur. The computational burden imposed by these long fetches necessitates the development of methods to accelerate the generation of turbulence on a nested LES domain forced by a smooth mesoscale inflow. To that end, four new methods based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field along the LES inflow boundaries are developed, and investigated under convective conditions. Each method accelerated the development of turbulence within the LES domain, with two of the methods resulting in a rapid generation of production and inertial range energy content associated to microscales that is consistent with non-nested simulations using periodic boundary conditions. The cell perturbation approach, the simplest and most efficient of the best performing methods, was investigated further under neutral and stable conditions. Successful results were obtained in all the regimes, where satisfactory agreement of mean velocity, variances and turbulent fluxes, as well as velocity and temperature spectra, was achieved with reference non-nested simulations. In contrast, the non-perturbed LES solution exhibited important energy deficits associated to a delayed establishment of fully-developed turbulence. The cell perturbation method has negligible computational cost, significantly accelerates the generation of realistic turbulence, and requires minimal parameter tuning, with the necessary information relatable to mean inflow conditions provided by the mesoscale solution.     

Verification of a coupled climate-hydrological model against Holocene palaeohydrological records

We have coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) offline to simulate palaeodischarge of nineteen rivers (Amazon, Congo, Danube, Ganges, Krishna, Lena, Mackenzie, Mekong, Meuse, Mississippi, Murray–Darling, Nile, Oder, Rhine, Sacramento–San Joaquin, Syr Darya, Volga, Volta, Zambezi) for three time-slices: Early Holocene (9000–8650 BP), Mid-Holocene (6200–5850 BP) and Recent (1750–2000 AD). To evaluate the model's skill in retrodicting broad changes in mean palaeodischarge we have compared the model results with palaeodischarge estimates from multi-proxy records. We have compared the general trends inferred from the proxy data with statistical differences in modelled discharge between the three periods, thereby developing a technique to assess the level of agreement between the model and proxy data. The quality of the proxy data for each basin has been classed as good, reasonable or low. Of the model runs for which the proxy data were good or reasonable, 72% were in good agreement with the proxy data, and 92% were in at least reasonable agreement. We conclude that the coupled climate-hydrological model performs well in simulating mean discharge in the time-slices studied. The discharge trends inferred from the proxy and model data closely follow latitudinal and seasonal variations in insolation over the Holocene. For a number of basins for which agreement was not good we have identified specific mechanisms which could be responsible for the discrepancy, primarily the absence of the Laurentide ice sheet in our model. In order to use the model in an operational sense within water management studies it would be useful to use a higher spatial resolution and a daily time-step.     

Nematode diversity and its relation to the quantity and quality of sedimentary organic matter in the deep Nazaré Canyon,Western Iberian Margin

Samples collected in the deep Nazaré Canyon and at the adjacent slope, during the HERMES RRS Discovery D297 cruise (2005), were analysed for metazoan meiofauna, nematode structure and diversity and its relation to quality and quantity of sedimentary organic material. The amount and quality of organic matter available for direct consumption was much higher in the canyon compared to the slope and positively correlated with high nematode abundances (795–1171 ind. 10 cm^?2) and biomass (93.2–343.5 μg dry weight 10 cm^?2), thus leading to higher standing stocks. Canyon nematode assemblages also showed particular adaptations (e.g. higher trophic complexity, variability of nematode morphology, and presence of opportunistic genera) to canyon conditions, particularly in the deeper sediment layers. The Nazaré Canyon's nematode diversity was slightly lower than that of the adjacent slope and its assemblages were characterised by a higher dominance of certain genera. Still, the canyon contributes considerably to total Western Iberian Margin diversity due to different assemblages present compared to the slope. Furthermore, the harsh conditions in terms of hydrodynamic disturbance and the high organic matter flux are likely to have a negative impact on the establishment of species rich meiobenthic communities, especially in the canyon axis.