Frame-based guide to situated decision-making on climate change

The present paper describes a frame-based approach to situated-decision-making on climate change. Building on the multidisciplinary literature on the relationship between frames and decision-making, it argues that decision-makers may gain from making frames more explicit and using them for generating different visions about the central issues. Frames act as organizing principles that shape in a “hidden” and taken-for-granted way how people conceptualize an issue. Science-related issues, such as climate change, are often linked to only a few frames, which consistently appear across different policy areas. Indeed, it appears that there are some very contrasting ways in which climate change may be framed. These frames can be characterized in terms of a simple framework that highlights specific interpretations of climate issues. A second framework clarifies the built-in frames of decision tools. Using Thompson's two basic dimensions of decision, it identifies the main uncertainties that should be considered in developing a decision strategy. The paper characterizes four types of decision strategy, focusing on (1) computation, (2) compromise, (3) judgment, or (4) inspiration, and links each strategy to the appropriate methods and tools, as well as the appropriate social structures. Our experiences show that the frame-based guide can work as an eye-opener for decision-makers, particularly where it demonstrates how to add more perspectives to the decision.     

A giant catastrophic mud‐and‐debris flow in the Miocene Makran

We challenge the former interpretation of the ‘sedimentary mélange’ of the Makran accretionary complex as a tectonic mélange diapirically emplaced from below and provide evidence for its sedimentary gravitational emplacement from the north during Tortonian–Messinian times (between 11.8 and 5.8 Ma). It is an olistostrome that includes blocks of ophiolites and oceanic sediments derived from the ‘coloured mélange’ to the north, and reworked chunks of the turbidites on which it rests with an erosional truncation. The chaotic scattering of blocks of any size and lithology and the weak, soft‐sediment deformation of the matrix argue against a tectonic emplacement of the chaotic formation. Its size and internal structure, together with the size of the individual blocks, make the olistostrome a fossil equivalent of the large, gravitationally emplaced debris flows observed along present‐day continental margins and unstable volcanic edifices.     

Information systems playground—the target infrastructure

The Target infrastructure has been specially built as a storage and compute infrastructure for the information systems derived from Astro-WISE. This infrastructure will be used by several applications that collaborate in the area of information systems within the Target project. It currently consists of 10 PB of storage and thousands of computational cores. The infrastructure has been constructed based on the requirements of the applications. The storage is controlled by the Global Parallel File System of IBM. This file system takes care of the required flexibility by combining storage hardware with different characteristics into a single file system. It is also very scalable, which allows the system to be extended into the future, while replacing old hardware with new technology.     

Spatial variability and temporal stability of throughfall water under a dominant beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree in relationship to canopy cover

Although the spatial heterogeneity of throughfall water (TF) under forest canopies has been related to vegetation structure in several forest types, few reports have been made of the driving factors of small-scale TF variability in deciduous stands. Therefore, the spatial variability of the amount of TF water under one dominant beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree was quantified in high temporal and spatial resolution over a 2-year period to examine the temporal stability of spatial TF variability and to relate spatial TF patterns to canopy cover determined photographically above each TF collector (n = 48). The spatial variability of TF was significantly higher during the leafed periods (coefficient of variation (CV) = 18%) than during the leafless periods (CV = 8%), and a strong negative relationship was observed between the CV of event TF and the TF fraction of rainfall in the open field. Geostatistical analysis showed that the cumulative TF water during the leafed periods was spatially correlated up to a distance of 3–4 m. There was a significant temporal stability of spatial TF patterns in the growing periods and in the dormant periods, but patterns differed largely between the two periods of the year. TF water during the growing periods significantly decreased with increasing canopy cover above the sampling locations (r = −0.54, p = 0.014, n = 20), but was more closely correlated with branch cover (r = −0.77, p < 0.001). However, the spatial pattern of TF during defoliated conditions was not related to the measured variation in branch cover.     

Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence as a predictor of thunderstorms

Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence (VIMFC) alone and in combination with the lifted stability index of the most unstable layer (SMUL) is evaluated as a thunderstorm predictor. By using six-hourly standard pressure weather analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) during 30 days in the summers of 1992 and 1994 containing several severe weather events along with quiescent events in northwestern Europe 17,206 events are obtained. The location and time of a lightning discharge are obtained from the Arrival Time Difference (ATD) sferics lightning location system from the UK Meteorological Office. Using the Heidke Skill Score (HEIDKE) to determine the best threshold we conclude that VIMFC alone, does not perform well as a dichotomous thunderstorm predictor compared to the stability index. However, the Thundery Case Probability (TCP) tested as function of VIMFC results in a high correlation with thunderstorms. By combining SMUL and VIMFC the surplus value as a thunderstorm predictor of VIMFC was established. TCP percentages up to 95% were found in an unstable environment with high positive values of VIMFC. In a marginally unstable environment with a high positive VIMFC the thunderstorm probability is higher than in a very unstable environment with no or negative VIMFC. These results are illustrated with a study of the case of the disastrous flash flood at Vaison-La-Romaine (southeastern France) on September 22, 1992. Although latent instability was present in a large area surrounding Vaison-La-Romaine, nearly all and especially the most severe thunderstorm activity occurred within the smaller area with positive VIMFC and latent instability.     

GIA-induced secular variations in the Earth's long wavelength gravity field: Influence of 3-D viscosity variations

Predictions of present day secular variations in the Earth's long wavelength geopotential driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have previously been analyzed to infer the radial profile of mantle viscosity and to constrain ongoing cryospheric mass balance. These predictions have been based on spherically symmetric Earth models. We explore the impact of lateral variations in mantle viscosity using a new finite-volume formulation for computing the response of 3-D Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models. The geometry of the viscosity field is constrained from seismic-to-mographic images of mantle structure, while the amplitude of the lateral viscosity variations is tuned by a free parameter in the modeling. We focus on the zonal J˙_? harmonics for degrees ? = 2,…,8 and demonstrate that large-scale lateral viscosity variations of two to three orders of magnitude have a modest, 5-10%, impact on predictions of J˙₂. In contrast, predictions of higher degree harmonics show a much greater sensitivity to lateral variation in viscosity structure. We conclude that future analyses of secular trends (for degree ? > 2) estimated from ongoing (GRACE, CHAMP) satellite missions must incorporate GIA predictions based on 3-D viscoelastic Earth models.