The role of antecedent groundwater heads in controlling transient aquifer storage and flood peak attenuation in karst watersheds

Transient storage of floodwaters in aquifers is known to attenuate peak flows in rivers and drive subsurface dissolution. Transient aquifer storage could be enhanced in watersheds overlying karst aquifers where caves facilitate surface and groundwater exchange. Few studies, however, have examined controls on, or magnitudes of, transient aquifer storage or flood peak attenuation in karstic watersheds. Here we evaluate flood peak attenuation with multiple linear regression analyses of 10 years of river and groundwater data from the Suwannee River, which flows over the karstic upper Floridan aquifer in north-central Florida and experiences frequent flooding. Regressions show antecedent river stage exerts the dominant control on magnitudes of transient aquifer storage, with recharge and time to peak having secondary controls. Specifically, low antecedent stages result in larger magnitudes of transient aquifer storage and thus greater flood attenuation than conditions of elevated antecedent stage. These findings suggest subsurface weathering, including cave formation and enlargement, caused by transient aquifer storage could occur on a more frequent basis in aquifers where groundwater table elevation is lowered due to anthropogenic or climatic influences. Our work also shows that measures of groundwater table elevation prior to an event could be used to improve predictive flood models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Molecular line profiles as diagnostics of protostellar collapse: modelling the 'blue asymmetry' in inside-out infall

The evolution of star-forming core analogues undergoing inside-out collapse is studied with a multipoint chemodynamical model which self-consistently computes the abundance distribution of chemical species in the core. For several collapse periods the output chemistry of infalling tracer species such as HCO⁺, CS and N₂H⁺ is then coupled to an accelerated Λ-iteration radiative transfer code, which predicts the emerging molecular line profiles using two different input gas/dust temperature distributions. We investigate the sensitivity of the predicted spectral line profiles and line asymmetry ratios to the core temperature distribution, the time-dependent model chemistry, as well as to ad hoc abundance distributions. The line asymmetry is found to be strongly dependent on the adopted chemical abundance distribution. In general, models with a warm central region show higher values of blue asymmetry in optically thick HCO⁺ and CS lines than models with a starless core temperature profile. We find that in the formal context of Shu-type inside-out infall, and in the absence of rotation or outflows, the relative blue asymmetry of certain HCO⁺ and CS transitions is a function of time and, subject to the foregoing caveats, can act as a collapse chronometer. The sensitivity of simulated HCO⁺ line profiles to linear radial variations, subsonic or supersonic, of the internal turbulence field is investigated in the separate case of static cores.     

Mineralogy and petrogenesis of lunar magnesian granulitic meteorite Northwest Africa 5744

Lunar meteorite Northwest Africa (NWA) 5744 is a granulitic breccia with an anorthositic troctolite composition that may represent a distinct crustal lithology not previously described. This meteorite is the namesake and first‐discovered stone of its pairing group. Bulk rock major element abundances show the greatest affinity to Mg‐suite rocks, yet trace element abundances are more consistent with those of ferroan anorthosites. The relatively low abundances of incompatible trace elements (including K, P, Th, U, and rare earth elements) in NWA 5744 could indicate derivation from a highlands crustal lithology or mixture of lithologies that are distinct from the Procellarum KREEP terrane on the lunar nearside. Impact‐related thermal and shock metamorphism of NWA 5744 was intense enough to recrystallize mafic minerals in the matrix, but not intense enough to chemically equilibrate the constituent minerals. Thus, we infer that NWA 5744 was likely metamorphosed near the lunar surface, either as a lithic component within an impact melt sheet or from impact‐induced shock.     

Evaluating Subsurface Parameterization to Simulate Hyporheic Exchange: The Steinlach River Test Site

Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of river water and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic exchange has been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. Our study evaluates the trade-offs between intrinsic (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) model errors when choosing between homogeneous and highly complex subsurface parameter structures. We modeled the Steinlach River Test Site in Southwest Germany using a fully coupled surface water-groundwater model to simulate hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive errors and uncertainties of transit time distributions. A highly parameterized model was built, treated as a “virtual reality” and used as a reference. We found that if the parameter structure is too simple, it will be limited by intrinsic model errors. By increasing subsurface complexity through the addition of zones or heterogeneity, we can begin to exchange intrinsic for epistemic errors. Thus, the appropriate level of detail to represent the subsurface depends on the acceptable range of intrinsic structural errors for the given modeling objectives and the available site data. We found that a zonated model is capable of reproducing the transit time distributions of a more detailed model, but only if the geological structures are known. An interpolated heterogeneous parameter field (cf. pilot points) showed the best trade-offs between the two errors, indicating fitness for practical applications. Parameter fields generated by multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) produce transit time distributions with the largest uncertainties, however, these are reducible by additional hydrogeological data, particularly flux measurements.     

Turbulent flow over a dune: Green River,Colorado

Detailed echo‐sounder and acoustic Doppler velocimeter measurements are used to assess the temporal and spatial structure of turbulent flow over a mobile dune in a wide, low‐gradient, alluvial reach of the Green River. Based on the geometric position of the sensor over the bedforms, measurements were taken in the wake, in transitional flow at the bedform crest, and in the internal boundary layer. Spatial distributions of Reynolds shear stress, turbulent kinetic energy, turbulence intensity, and correlation coefficient are qualitatively consistent with those over fixed, two‐dimensional bedforms in laboratory flows. Spectral and cospectral analysis demonstrates that energy levels in the lee of the crest (i.e. wake) are two to four times greater than over the crest itself, with minima over the stoss slope (within the developing internal boundary layer). The frequency structure in the wake is sharply defined with single, dominant peaks. Peak and total spectral and cross‐spectral energies vary over the bedform in a manner consistent with wave‐like perturbations that ‘break’ or ‘roll up’ into vortices that amalgamate, grow in size, and eventually diffuse as they are advected downstream. Fluid oscillations in the lee of the dune demonstrate Strouhal similarity between laboratory and field environments, and correspondence between the peak frequencies of these oscillations and the periodicity of surface boils was observed in the field. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assimilating QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Winds with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Surface Wind-Field Simulation over the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas

To achieve a high-quality simulation of the surface wind field in the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea region, quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) ocean surface winds were assimilated into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model by using its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The SeaWinds instrument on board the polar-orbiting QuikSCAT satellite is a specialized radar that measures ice-free ocean surface wind speed and direction at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. A total of eight assimilation case studies over two five-day periods, 1–5 October 2002 and 20–24 September 2004, were performed. The simulation results with and without the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds were then compared with QuikSCAT data available during the subsequent free-forecast period, coastal station observations, and North American Regional Reanalysis data. It was found that QuikSCAT winds are a potentially valuable resource for improving the simulation of ocean near-surface winds in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas region. Specifically, the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds improved, (1) offshore surface winds as compared to unassimilated QuikSCAT winds, (2) sea-level pressure, planetary boundary-layer height, as well as surface heat fluxes, and (3) low-level wind fields and geopotential height. Verification against QuikSCAT data also demonstrated the temporal consistency and good quality of QuikSCAT observations.     

Seasonal and inter-annual relationships between vegetation and climate in central New Mexico, USA

Linear correlations between seasonal and inter-annual measures of meteorological variables and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are calculated at six nearby yet distinct vegetation communities in semi-arid New Mexico, USA Monsoon season (June–September) precipitation shows considerable positive correlation with NDVI values from the contemporaneous summer, following spring, and following summer. Non-monsoon precipitation (October–May), temperature, and wind display both positive and negative correlations with NDVI values. These meteorological variables influence NDVI variability at different seasons and time lags. Thus vegetation responds to short-term climate variability in complex ways and serves as a source of memory for the climate system.     

U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through Science–Management partnerships

Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United States national forests is just starting. We established science–management partnerships on the Olympic National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (California) in the first effort to develop adaptation options for specific national forests. We employed a focus group process in order to establish the scientific context necessary for understanding climate change and its anticipated effects, and to develop specific options for adapting to a warmer climate. Climate change scientists provided the scientific knowledge base on which adaptations could be based, and resource managers developed adaptation options based on their understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and management. General adaptation strategies developed by national forest managers include: (1) reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-induced stress by increasing resilience at large spatial scales, (2) consider tradeoffs and conflicts that may affect adaptation success, (3) manage for realistic outcomes and prioritize treatments that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate, (4) manage dynamically and experimentally, and (5) manage for structure and composition. Specific adaptation options include: (1) increase landscape diversity, (2) maintain biological diversity, (3) implement early detection/rapid response for exotic species and undesirable resource conditions, (4) treat large-scale disturbance as a management opportunity and integrate it in planning, (5) implement treatments that confer resilience at large spatial scales, (6) match engineering of infrastructure to expected future conditions, (7) promote education and awareness about climate change among resource staff and local publics, and (8) collaborate with a variety of partners on adaptation strategies and to promote ecoregional management. The process described here can quickly elicit a large amount of information relevant for adaptation to climate change, and can be emulated for other national forests, groups of national forests with similar resources, and other public lands. As adaptation options are iteratively generated for additional administrative units on public lands, management options can be compared, tested, and integrated into adaptive management. Science-based adaptation is imperative because increasing certainty about climate impacts and management outcomes may take decades.     

Implications of recent sea level rise science for low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A.

Recently published work estimates that global sea level rise (SLR) approaching or exceeding 1 m by 2100 is plausible, thus significantly updating projections by the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the 21st century will not only influence SLR in the next ??90 years, but will also commit Earth to several meters of additional SLR over subsequent centuries. In this context of worsening prospects for substantial SLR, we apply a new geospatial dataset to calculate low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. potentially impacted by SLR in this and following centuries. In total, 20 municipalities with populations greater than 300,000 and 160 municipalities with populations between 50,000 and 300,000 have land area with elevations at or below 6 m and connectivity to the sea, as based on the 1 arc-second National Elevation Dataset. On average, approximately 9% of the area in these coastal municipalities lies at or below 1 m. This figure rises to 36% when considering area at or below 6 m. Areal percentages of municipalities with elevations at or below 1?C6 m are greater than the national average along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. In contrast to the national and international dimensions of and associated efforts to curb GHG emissions, our comparison of low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. clearly shows that SLR will potentially have very local, and disproportionate, impacts.