U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through Science–Management partnerships

Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United States national forests is just starting. We established science–management partnerships on the Olympic National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (California) in the first effort to develop adaptation options for specific national forests. We employed a focus group process in order to establish the scientific context necessary for understanding climate change and its anticipated effects, and to develop specific options for adapting to a warmer climate. Climate change scientists provided the scientific knowledge base on which adaptations could be based, and resource managers developed adaptation options based on their understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and management. General adaptation strategies developed by national forest managers include: (1) reduce vulnerability to anticipated climate-induced stress by increasing resilience at large spatial scales, (2) consider tradeoffs and conflicts that may affect adaptation success, (3) manage for realistic outcomes and prioritize treatments that facilitate adaptation to a warmer climate, (4) manage dynamically and experimentally, and (5) manage for structure and composition. Specific adaptation options include: (1) increase landscape diversity, (2) maintain biological diversity, (3) implement early detection/rapid response for exotic species and undesirable resource conditions, (4) treat large-scale disturbance as a management opportunity and integrate it in planning, (5) implement treatments that confer resilience at large spatial scales, (6) match engineering of infrastructure to expected future conditions, (7) promote education and awareness about climate change among resource staff and local publics, and (8) collaborate with a variety of partners on adaptation strategies and to promote ecoregional management. The process described here can quickly elicit a large amount of information relevant for adaptation to climate change, and can be emulated for other national forests, groups of national forests with similar resources, and other public lands. As adaptation options are iteratively generated for additional administrative units on public lands, management options can be compared, tested, and integrated into adaptive management. Science-based adaptation is imperative because increasing certainty about climate impacts and management outcomes may take decades.     

Implications of recent sea level rise science for low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A.

Recently published work estimates that global sea level rise (SLR) approaching or exceeding 1 m by 2100 is plausible, thus significantly updating projections by the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the 21st century will not only influence SLR in the next ??90 years, but will also commit Earth to several meters of additional SLR over subsequent centuries. In this context of worsening prospects for substantial SLR, we apply a new geospatial dataset to calculate low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. potentially impacted by SLR in this and following centuries. In total, 20 municipalities with populations greater than 300,000 and 160 municipalities with populations between 50,000 and 300,000 have land area with elevations at or below 6 m and connectivity to the sea, as based on the 1 arc-second National Elevation Dataset. On average, approximately 9% of the area in these coastal municipalities lies at or below 1 m. This figure rises to 36% when considering area at or below 6 m. Areal percentages of municipalities with elevations at or below 1?C6 m are greater than the national average along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. In contrast to the national and international dimensions of and associated efforts to curb GHG emissions, our comparison of low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. clearly shows that SLR will potentially have very local, and disproportionate, impacts.     

Growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder in two New England estuaries

A length-based model for calculating growth and mortality of juvenile winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) populations has been developed. This model is based on work by Sullivan et al. (1990) and incorporates the von Bertalanffy growth equation, including stochasticity in growth, and a mortality rate that decreases exponentially with size. The length-based model was fit to observed size-frequency distributions, and model likelihood profiles were generated to produce 95% confidence intervals about parameter estimates. We analyzed size-frequency distributions of 3 to 15 cm juvenile winter flounder, collected with a 1-m beam trawl, at monthly intervals from June to October during 1993 and 1994. Growth rates were higher at a contaminated site, New Haven Harbor, than at a clean site, the Connecticut River estuary, however, the parameter estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals. Mortality rates were similar at the two sites.     

Response of low‐angle dunes to variable flow

Current understanding of bedform dynamics is largely based on field and laboratory observations of bedforms in steady flow environments. There are relatively few investigations of bedforms in flows dominated by unsteadiness associated with rapidly changing flows or tides. As a consequence, the ability to predict bedform response to variable flow is rudimentary. Using high‐resolution multibeam bathymetric data, this study explores the dynamics of a dune field developed by tidally modulated, fluvially dominated flow in the Fraser River Estuary, British Columbia, Canada. The dunes were dominantly low lee angle features characteristic of large, deep river channels. Data were collected over a field ca 1·0 km long and 0·5 km wide through a complete diurnal tidal cycle during the rising limb of the hydrograph immediately prior to peak freshet, yielding the most comprehensive characterization of low‐angle dunes ever reported. The data show that bedform height and lee angle slope respond to variable flow by declining as the tide ebbs, then increasing as the tide rises and the flow velocities decrease. Bedform lengths do not appear to respond to the changes in velocity caused by the tides. Changes in the bedform height and lee angle have a counterclockwise hysteresis with mean flow velocity, indicating that changes in the bedform geometry lag changes in the flow. The data reveal that lee angle slope responds directly to suspended sediment concentration, supporting previous speculation that low‐angle dune morphology is maintained by erosion of the dune stoss and crest at high flow, and deposition of that material in the dune trough.     

中国当代土地利用对区域气候影响的数值模拟

使用RegCM3区域气候模式，嵌套欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)ERA40再分析资料，分别进行了中国区域在实际植被和理想植被分布情况下各15年时间长度（1987-2001）的积分试验，以研究我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。通过两个试验结果的对比，研究了我国土地利用状况对气候的影响。分析主要集中于气温、降水等的变化上，并对结果进行了统计显著性检验。结果表明，当代土地利用/植被覆盖变化加强了中国地区冬、夏季的季风环流，同时改变了地表能量平衡状况，从而对各气候要素产生重要影响。冬季，植被改变引起长江以南降水减少、气温降低，长江以北降水增加。夏季，植被改变显著影响了南方地区的气候，使得这里降水增多，黄淮、江淮气温降低，华南气温上升；同时引起中国北方降水减少，气温在西北部分植被退化地区升高。植被变化对日最低、最高气温的影响更大。总体来说，土地利用引起了年平均降水在南方增加、北方减少，年平均气温在南方显著降低。     

A review of inverse methods in seismic site characterization

Journal of Seismology - Seismic site characterization attempts to quantify seismic wave behavior at a specific location based on near-surface geophysical properties, for the purpose of mitigating...     

The roles of surface heat flux and ocean heat transport convergence in determining Atlantic Ocean temperature variability

The temperature variability of the Atlantic Ocean is investigated using an eddy-permitting (1/4°) global ocean model (ORCA-025) forced with historical surface meteorological fields from 1958 to 2001. The simulation of volume-averaged temperature and the vertical structure of the zonally averaged temperature trends are compared with those from observations. In regions with a high number of observations, in particular above a depth of 500 m and between 22° N and 65° N, the model simulation and the dataset are in good agreement. The relative contribution of variability in ocean heat transport (OHT) convergence and net surface heat flux to changes in ocean heat content is investigated with a focus on three regions: the subpolar and subtropical gyres and the tropics. The surface heat flux plays a relatively minor role in year-to-year changes in the subpolar and subtropical regions, but in the tropical North Atlantic, its role is of similar significance to the ocean heat transport convergence. The strongest signal during the study period is a cooling of the subpolar gyre between 1970 and 1990, which subsequently reversed as the mid-latitude OHT convergence transitioned from an anomalously weak to an anomalously strong state. We also explore whether model OHT anomalies can be linked to surface flux anomalies through a Hovmöller analysis of the Atlantic sector. At low latitudes, increased ocean heat gain coincides with anomalously strong northward transport, whereas at mid-high latitudes, reduced ocean heat loss is associated with anomalously weak heat transport.     

Assessment of δ13C and C/N ratios in bulk organic matter as palaeosalinity indicators in Holocene and Lateglacial isolation basin sediments,northwest Scotland

Carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) and C/N ratios from bulk organic matter have recently been used as alternative proxies for relative sea‐level (RSL) reconstruction where there are problems associated with conventional biological indictors. A previous study on a single isolation basin (Upper Loch nan Eala) in northwest Scotland has shown a clear relationship between δ¹³C, C/N ratios and palaeosalinity from Younger Dryas and Holocene aged sediments. In this paper we present results of δ¹³C and C/N ratio analyses from other isolation basins in northwest Scotland over the Holocene and the Lateglacial period in order to validate this technique. The results from the Holocene sequences support the earlier findings that this technique can be used to identify RSL change from isolation basins over the Holocene in this region. The relationship between δ¹³C, C/N ratios and RSL change is not apparent in sediments of Lateglacial age. Other environmental variables such as atmospheric CO₂ concentration, poor vegetation development and temperature influence δ¹³C values during this period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First cosmogenic 10Be age constraint on the timing of Younger Dryas glaciation and ice cap thickness,western Scottish Highlands

We use cosmogenic ¹⁰Be surface exposure age techniques at a locality close to Rannoch Moor, western Scottish Highlands, in order to establish the age and chronology of its most recent glaciation. Glacial erratics and an in situ bedrock quartz vein sampled from this site—the summit of Beinn Inverveigh—have yielded zero‐erosion exposure ages of 12.9 ± 1.5 ka to 11.6 ± 1.0 ka, implying complete ice cover of the mountain during the Younger Dryas, or Loch Lomond Stadial. These results fit closely with published ¹⁴C dates that bracket the maximum (lateral) extent of ice cap outlet glaciers, and are the first internally consistent ages to specifically address this period of glaciation in Scotland. Furthermore, the dates imply that previous palaeoglaciological reconstructions for this area may have underestimated both the thickness of the former ice cap and, by implication, its volume. © British Geological Survey/Natural Environment Research Council copyright 2007. Reproduced with the permission of BGS/NERC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial variability of snowmelt timing from AMSR‐E and SSM/I passive microwave sensors,Pelly River,Yukon Territory,Canada

Spring snow melt run‐off in high latitude and snow‐dominated drainage basins is generally the most significant annual hydrological event. Melt timing, duration, and flow magnitude are highly variable and influence regional climate, geomorphology, and hydrology. Arctic and sub‐arctic regions have sparse long‐term ground observations and these snow‐dominated hydrologic regimes are sensitive to the rapidly warming climate trends that characterize much of the northern latitudes. Passive microwave brightness temperatures are sensitive to changes in the liquid water content of the snow pack and make it possible to detect incipient melt, diurnal melt‐refreeze cycles, and the approximate end of snow cover on the ground over large regions. Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR‐E) passive microwave brightness temperatures (T_b) and diurnal amplitude variations (DAV) are used to investigate the spatial variability of snowmelt onset timing (in two stages, ‘DAV onset’ and ‘melt onset’) and duration for a complex sub‐arctic landscape during 2005. The satellites are sensitive to small percentages of liquid water, and therefore represent ‘incipient melt’, a condition somewhat earlier than a traditional definition of a melting snowpack. Incipient melt dates and duration are compared to topography, land cover, and hydrology to investigate the strength and significance of melt timing in heterogeneous landscapes in the Pelly River, a major tributary to the Yukon River. Microwave‐derived melt onset in this region in 2005 occurred from late February to late April. Upland areas melt 1–2 weeks later than lowland areas and have shorter transition periods. Melt timing and duration appear to be influenced by pixel elevation, aspect, and uniformity as well as other factors such as weather and snow mass distribution. The end of the transition season is uniform across sensors and across the basin in spite of a wide variety of pixel characteristics. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.