Generating Surface Models of Population Using Dasymetric Mapping*

Aggregated demographic datasets are associated with analytical and cartographic problems due to the arbitrary nature of areal unit partitioning. This article describes a methodology for generating a surface‐based representation of population that mitigates these problems. This methodology uses dasymetric mapping and incorporates areal weighting and empirical sampling techniques to assess the relationship between categorical ancillary data and population distribution. As a demonstration, a 100‐meter‐resolution population surface is generated from U.S. Census block group data for the southeast Pennsylvania region. Remote‐sensing‐derived urban land‐cover data serve as ancillary data in the dasymetric mapping.     

Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios (2071–2100)

We present an analysis of climate change over Europe as simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) nested within time-slice atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Changes in mean and interannual variability are discussed for the 30-year period of 2071–2100 with respect to the present day period of 1961–1990 under forcing from the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. In both scenarios, the European region undergoes substantial warming in all seasons, in the range of 1–5.5°C, with the warming being 1–2°C lower in the B2 than in the A2 scenario. The spatial patterns of warming are similar in the two scenarios, with a maximum over eastern Europe in winter and over western and southern Europe in summer. The precipitation changes in the two scenarios also show similar spatial patterns. In winter, precipitation increases over most of Europe (except for the southern Mediterranean regions) due to increased storm activity and higher atmospheric water vapor loadings. In summer, a decrease in precipitation is found over most of western and southern Europe in response to a blocking-like anticyclonic circulation over the northeastern Atlantic which deflects summer storms northward. The precipitation changes in the intermediate seasons (spring and fall) are less pronounced than in winter and summer. Overall, the intensity of daily precipitation events predominantly increases, often also in regions where the mean precipitation decreases. Conversely the number of wet days decreases (leading to longer dry periods) except in the winter over western and central Europe. Cloudiness, snow cover and soil water content show predominant decreases, in many cases also in regions where precipitation increases. Interannual variability of both temperature and precipitation increases substantially in the summer and shows only small changes in the other seasons. A number of statistically significant regional trends are found throughout the scenario simulations, especially for temperature and for the A2 scenario. The results from the forcing AGCM simulations and the nested RCM simulations are generally consistent with each other at the broad scale. However, significant differences in the simulated surface climate changes are found between the two models in the summer, when local physics processes are more important. In addition, substantial fine scale detail in the RCM-produced change signal is found in response to local topographical and coastline features.     

Velocity anisotropy and attenuation of shale in under- and overpressured conditions

The seismic velocity and attenuation of fully saturated shales were measured for the first time under overpressured conditions, using the ultrasonic reflection technique. Shale cores from naturally overpressured horizons in the North Sea were tested in the laboratory, at confining and pore pressures relevant to in situ conditions.
A single-frequency tone-burst pulse wave was used to determine the seismic wave velocities and quality factors of the shale samples, with errors less than 0.3% and 0.1 dB/cm, respectively, at a frequency of 0.75 MHz. Sample length changes with varying confining and pore pressure were measured and the pore pressure equilibration time was monitored for each sample.
The anisotropy of the seismic attributes ( V _p, V _s, Q _p and Q _s) was determined over a range of differential pressures from 5 to 60 MPa, with respect to the predominant foliation. The ultrasonic velocity data followed a transversely isotropic pattern depending on the direction of wave propagation with respect to the laminations. The Poisson's ratio was found to rise by 5% as the shale material progressed from a normally pressured to an overpressured state. The quality factor ( Q ) characteristics were interpreted in terms of pore geometry and connectivity as well as the directional permeability of the transversely isotropic shale material. The results were converted to bulk and shear loss modulus defects, and a positive bulk loss was observed for waves propagating perpendicular to the lamination plane even above differential pressures of 20 MPa. This indicates different levels of Biot-flow and squirt-flow attenuation mechanisms acting within the shale structure, depending on the wave propagation and vibration directions.     

Move a Tropical Cyclone with 4D-Var and Vortex Dynamical Initialization in WRF Model

Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper.     

Estimating suspended sediment concentrations in areas with limited hydrological data using a mixed‐effects model

Sediment rating curves are commonly used to estimate the suspended sediment load in rivers and streams under the assumption of a constant relation between discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) over time. However, temporal variation in the sediment supply of a watershed results in shifts in this relation by increasing variability and by introducing nonlinearities in the form of hysteresis or a path‐dependent relation. In this study, we used a mixed‐effects linear model to estimate an average SSC–Q relation for different periods of time within the hydrologic cycle while accounting for seasonality and hysteresis. We tested the performance of the mixed‐effects model against the standard rating curve, represented by a generalized least squares regression, by comparing observed and predicted sediment loads for a test case on the Chilliwack River, British Columbia, Canada. In our analyses, the mixed‐effects model reflected more accurate patterns of interpolated SSC from Q data than the rating curve, especially for the low‐flow summer months when the SSC–Q relation is less clear. Akaike information criterion scores were lower for the mixed‐effects model than for the standard model, and the mixed‐effects model explained nearly twice as much variance as the standard model (52% vs 27%). The improved performance was achieved by accounting for variability in the SSC–Q relation within each month and across years for the same month using fixed and random effects, respectively, a characteristic disregarded in the sediment rating curve. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pore fluid viscosity effects on P‐ and S‐wave anisotropy in synthetic silica‐cemented sandstone with aligned fractures

Ultrasonic (500 kHz) P‐ and S‐wave velocity and attenuation anisotropy were measured in the laboratory on synthetic, octagonal‐shaped, silica‐cemented sandstone samples with aligned penny‐shaped voids as a function of pore fluid viscosity. One control (blank) sample was manufactured without fractures, another sample with a known fracture density (measured from X‐ray CT images). Velocity and attenuation were measured in four directions relative to the bedding fabric (introduced during packing of successive layers of sand grains during sample construction) and the coincident penny‐shaped voids (fractures). Both samples were measured when saturated with air, water (viscosity 1 cP) and glycerin (100 cP) to reveal poro‐visco‐elastic effects on velocity and attenuation, and their anisotropy. The blank sample was used to estimate the background anisotropy of the host rock in the fractured sample; the bedding fabric was found to show transverse isotropy with shear wave splitting (SWS) of 1.45 ± 1.18% (i.e. for S‐wave propagation along the bedding planes). In the fractured rock, maximum velocity and minimum attenuation of P‐waves was seen at 90° to the fracture normal. After correction for the background anisotropy, the fractured sample velocity anisotropy was expressed in terms of Thomsen's weak anisotropy parameters ε, γ & δ. A theory of frequency‐dependent seismic anisotropy in porous, fractured, media was able to predict the observed effect of viscosity and bulk modulus on ε and δ in water‐ and glycerin‐saturated samples, and the higher ε and δ values in air‐saturated samples. Theoretical predictions of fluid independent γ are also in agreement with the laboratory observations. We also observed the predicted polarisation cross‐over in shear‐wave splitting for wave propagation at 45° to the fracture normal as fluid viscosity and bulk modulus increases.     

Size,shape and spatial arrangement of mega‐scale glacial lineations from a large and diverse dataset

Mega‐scale glacial lineations (MSGLs) are a characteristic landform on ice stream beds. Solving the puzzle of their formation is key to understanding how ice interacts with its bed and how this, in turn, influences the dynamics of ice streams. However, a comprehensive and detailed characterization of this landform's size, shape and spatial arrangement, which might serve to test and refine formational theories, is largely lacking. This paper presents a detailed morphometric analysis and comparison of 4043 MSGLs from eight palaeo‐ice stream settings: three offshore (Norway and Antarctica), four onshore (Canada), and one from under a modern ice stream in West Antarctica. The length of MSGLs is lower than previously suggested (mode 1000–2000 m; median 2892 m), and they initiate and terminate at various locations on an ice stream bed. Their spatial arrangement reveals a pattern that is characterized by an exceptional parallel conformity (80% of all mapped MSGLs have an azimuth within 5° from the mean values), and a fairly constant lateral spacing (mode 200–300 m; median 330 m), which we interpret as an indication that MSGLs are a spatially self‐organized phenomenon. Results show that size, shape and spatial arrangement of MSGLs are consistent both within and also generally between different ice stream beds. We suggest this results from a common mechanism of formation, which is largely insensitive to local factors. Although the elongation of MSGLs (mode 6–8; median 12.2) is typically higher than features described as drumlins, these values and those of their width (mode 100–200 m; median 268 m) overlap, which suggests the two landforms are part of a morphological continuum and may share a similar origin. We compare their morphometry with explicit predictions made by the groove‐ploughing and rilling instability theories of MSGL formation. Although the latter was most compatible, neither is fully supported by observations. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The use of RFID in soil‐erosion research

In this paper, we examine the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) tags for studying soil erosion. Surrogate soil particles were created by coating RFID tags with silicone clay and bronze powder to give them an overall density similar to that of quartz particles. The particles were between 2.5 mm and 4.0 mm in diameter and had specific weights of 2.5 to 3.0. These tagged particles were deployed on two plots: first, in a proof‐of‐concept laboratory study and secondly in a field study, the latter involving repeated surveys after rainfall events. Seven surveys under natural rainfall over four months yielded recovery rates averaged 56%. RFIDs are shown to provide useful insights into the movement of individual soil particles during erosion processes. As RFID technology advances, further miniaturization is likely to occur enabling the movement of a greater range of soil particles to be studied, and we may anticipate improvements to the signal detection so that recovery does not rely wholly on visual identification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.