Assessing drought threats to agricultural water supplies under climate change by combining the SWAT and MODSIM models for the Geum River basin,South Korea

ABSTRACT

The impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km²) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Effective periods and seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames designed for risk categories I and IV according to IBC2009

In current seismic design, structures that are essential for post‐disaster recovery, and hazardous facilities are classified as risk category IV and are designed with higher importance factors and stringent drift limits. These structures are expected to perform better in an earthquake event because a larger base shear and more stringent drift limit are used. Although this provision has been in the seismic design code over the last three decades, few studies have investigated the performance of essential structures. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of higher importance factors and stringent drift limits on the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames. A total of 16 steel structures are designed for Los Angeles and Seattle. Different risk categories are used for the design. The effects of the risk categories on the structural periods, and thus on the seismic force demand, are investigated. A suite of inelastic time history analyses are carried out to understand the probability of exceeding a specified limit state when the structures are subjected to different levels of earthquake events. The results show that the periods of the structures in risk category IV decrease by a factor of 0.5 to 0.8, and the strengths increase by a factor of 1.5 to 3.2. Seismic fragility analysis shows that the structures in risk category IV generally satisfy the probabilistic performance objectives. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of a forensic geochemical technique and a hydrogeological assessment to determine the source of petroleum hydrocarbon contamination at a foreshore site in Korea

Investigations undertaken in 2013 at a foreshore site that was historically used for ship repairs in Korea indicated that soil and groundwater were contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons over an area of 10,000 m². Groundwater investigations and modelling were undertaken to determine the characteristics of aquifers beneath the site, including the direction and rate of groundwater flow and the extent of dispersion of total petroleum hydrocarbon contamination. To identify petroleum products residing in contaminated soils, the hump of an unresolved complex mixture on the baseline found in the data of gas chromatography was used as a new method. Based on objective facts obtained from basic investigation, the current state of contamination, and discrimination of oil species, the polluter as specified in the Korean Soil Environment Conservation Act was identified.     

Changes in mineralogy of loess-paleosol sections across the Chinese Loess Plateau

Quantitative mineralogical analysis of bulk samples and single particles was carried out on three loess sections of different local climate settings on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Mineralogy, geochemistry, and single-particle petrography of loess and paleosols are relatively uniform over the CLP. However, in detail, there are mineralogical changes related to eolian process and chemical weathering. Particle-size sorting eastward from western sources led to an eastward increase of the total phyllosilicate contents enriched in fine illitic clay minerals. After deposition, detrital minerals susceptible to chemical weathering were sequentially altered in a progressive fashion with increasing precipitation in the order of calcite, dolomite, biotite, illite, chlorite, amphibole, and plagioclase. The weathering of biotite, chlorite, and illite resulted in a significant increase of expandable phyllosilicate contents. The sequential weathering of the minerals is reflected chemically in the decrease of Na and Mg and the increase of iron oxidation. Mineralogy of the Chinese loess at individual sites reflects the effects of size fractionation during eolian transportation and progressive sequential weathering along the climatic gradient, and it is essential to consider both effects when using mineralogical and dependent chemical data in the paleoclimatic reconstruction of the CLP.     

Real-time acceleration monitoring-based rapid earthquake response for ports in Korea

To establish viable earthquake counterplans for ports in Korea, data regarding earthquake motion on the ground and in buildings must be collected using acceleration monitoring systems. Acceleration monitoring-based strategies for port facilities are useful not only for ensuring rapid responses during and after earthquakes but also for regional data collection to assist reliable seismic design. Acceleration monitoring systems were installed at coastal facility sites in target ports, including a soil site to represent the facility and a rock site as a reference. The systematic earthquake alert software was designed to help them in decision-making about a possible seismic hazard and its reporting. The earthquake alert system was composed of two sequential functional software systems sharing an acceleration monitoring database applied to the target ports. The earthquake response software system triggers an alarm based on the peak ground acceleration per second computed from the monitored data. Then, the earthquake hazard estimation software system evaluates possible earthquake-induced site-specific geotechnical hazards linked to the peak ground acceleration. The integrated system was successfully operated and was able to rapidly provide an emergency report containing event records and geotechnical earthquake hazards during the September 2016 Gyeongju earthquake, the largest recorded earthquake in Korea.