Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula

Fruit production systems that rely on winter chill for breaking of dormancy might be vulnerable to climatic change. We investigated decreases in the number of winter chilling hours (0–7.2°C) in four mountain oases of Oman, a marginal area for the production of fruit trees with chilling requirements. Winter chill was calculated from long-term hourly temperature records. These were generated based on the correlation of hourly temperature measurements in the oases with daylength and daily minimum and maximum temperatures recorded at a nearby weather station. Winter chill was estimated for historic temperature records between 1983 and 2008, as well as for three sets of synthetic 100-year weather records, generated to represent historic conditions, and climatic changes likely to occur within the next 30 years (temperatures elevated by 1°C and 2°C). Our analysis detected a decrease in the numbers of chilling hours in high-elevation oases by an average of 1.2–9.5 h/year between 1983 and 2008, a period during which, according to the scenario analysis, winter chill was sufficient for most important species in most years in the highest oasis. In the two climate change scenarios, pomegranates, the most important tree crop, received insufficient chilling in 13% and 75% of years, respectively. While production of most traditional fruit trees is marginal today, with trees barely fulfilling their chilling requirements, such production might become impossible in the near future. Similar developments are likely to affect other fruit production regions around the world.     

Acoustic and petrophysical properties of mechanically compacted overconsolidated sands: Part 2 – Rock physics modelling and applications

Part one of this paper reported results from experimental compaction measurements of unconsolidated natural sand samples with different mineralogical compositions and textures. The experimental setup was designed with several cycles of stress loading and unloading applied to the samples. The setup was aimed to simulate a stress condition where sediments underwent episodes of compaction, uplift and erosion. P-wave and S-wave velocities and corresponding petrophysical (porosity and density) properties were reported. In this second part of the paper, rock physics modelling utilizing existing rock physics models to evaluate the model validity for measured data from part one were presented. The results show that a friable sand model, which was established for normally compacted sediments is also capable of describing overconsolidated sediments. The velocity–porosity data plotted along the friable sand lines not only describe sorting deterioration, as has been traditionally explained by other studies, but also variations in pre-consolidation stress or degree of stress release. The deviation of the overconsolidated sands away from the normal compaction trend on the V_P/V_S and acoustic impedance space shows that various stress paths can be predicted on this domain when utilizing rock physics templates. Fluid saturation sensitivity is found to be lower in overconsolidated sands compared to normally consolidated sands. The sensitivity decreases with increasing pre-consolidation stress. This means detectability for four-dimensional fluid saturation changes can be affected if sediments were pre-stressed and unloaded. Well log data from the Barents Sea show similar patterns to the experimental sand data. The findings allow the development of better rock physics diagnostics of unloaded sediments, and the understanding of expected 4D seismic response during time-lapse seismic monitoring of uplifted basins. The studied outcomes also reveal an insight into the friable sand model that its diagnostic value is not only for describing sorting microtextures, but also pre-consolidation stress history. The outcome extends the model application for pre-consolidation stress estimation, for any unconsolidated sands experiencing similar unloading stress conditions to this study.     

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.     

Long-term soil moisture dynamics derived from GNSS interferometric reflectometry: a case study for Sutherland,South Africa

Soil moisture is a geophysical key observable for predicting floods and droughts, modeling weather and climate and optimizing agricultural management. Currently available in situ observations are limited to small sampling volumes and restricted number of sites, whereas measurements from satellites lack spatial resolution. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers can be used to estimate soil moisture time series at an intermediate scale of about 1000 m². In this study, GNSS signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data at the station Sutherland, South Africa, are used to estimate soil moisture variations during 2008–2014. The results capture the wetting and drying cycles in response to rainfall. The GNSS Volumetric Water Content (VWC) is highly correlated (r ² = 0.8) with in situ observations by time-domain reflectometry sensors and is accurate to 0.05 m³/m³. The soil moisture estimates derived from the SNR of the L1 and L2P signals compared to the L2C show small differences with a RMSE of 0.03 m³/m³. A reduction in the SNR sampling rate from 1 to 30 s has very little impact on the accuracy of the soil moisture estimates (RMSE of the VWC difference 1–30 s is 0.01 m³/m³). The results show that the existing data of the global tracking network with continuous observations of the L1 and L2P signals with a 30-s sampling rate over the last two decades can provide valuable complementary soil moisture observations worldwide.     

Effects of Dredging Activities on Growth of Laminaria saccharina

Abstract. The possible effects of fine-grained deposits on the photosynthesis, growth, and nutrient uptake of Laminaria have been studied in field and laboratory experiments. Some of the plants were treated with fine-grained material for two hours and then transplanted in rows together with untreated plants. At two-week intervals the treatment was repeated and samples collected. The macroalgae were analyzed for growth as well as chlorophyll a , nitrogen, and phosphorus content. In the laboratory experiments, plants of a uniform size were incubated in Plexiglas containers after leaf-marking and treatment in a sediment suspension. At weekly intervals, photosynthesis, growth, chlorophyll a , and nutrients were analyzed.
The field study showed that Laminaria growth was significantly affected by the fine-grained material. The growth in the control experiment was 20% higher than in the treated plants. The chlorophyll a concentrations in the treated plants were significantly lower than in the control experiment, and the results indicated a reduced nutrient uptake in the treated plants. In the laboratory experiments the growth of the treated plants was only 30% of the controls, but no differences in photosynthetic capacities were detected. Nitrogen uptake was reduced in the treated plants, but no effects were observed on phosphorus uptake. Thick layers of fine-grained material caused direct harmful effects and rotting.
The results are discussed in relation to dredging activities; it is concluded that in heavy sedimentation areas, Laminaria growth may be significantly reduced beyond the indirect effect of shading from suspended material in the water.     

Variations in bottom water activity at the southern Argentine margin: indications from a seismic analysis of a continental slope terrace

Continental slope terraces at the southern Argentine margin are part of a significant contourite depositional system composed of a variety of drifts, channels, and sediment waves. Here, a refined seismostratigraphic model for the sedimentary development of the Valentin Feilberg Terrace located in ~4.1?km water depth is presented. Analyzing multichannel seismic profiles across and along this terrace, significant changes in terrace morphology and seismic reflection character are identified and interpreted to reflect variations in deep water hydrography from Late Miocene to recent times, involving variable flow of Antarctic Bottom Water and Circumpolar Deep Water. A prominent basin-wide aggradational seismic unit is interpreted to represent the Mid-Miocene climatic optimum (~17?C14?Ma). A major current reorganization can be inferred for the time ~14?C12?Ma when the Valentin Feilberg Terrace started growing due to the deposition of sheeted and mounded drifts. After ~12?Ma, bottom water flow remained vigorous at both margins of the terrace. Another intensification of bottom flow occurred at ~5?C6?Ma when a mounded drift, moats, and sediment waves developed on the terrace. This may have been caused by a general change in deep water mass organization following the closure of the Panamanian gateway, and a subsequent stronger southward flow of North Atlantic Deep Water.     

The BEEP project in the Baltic Sea: overview of results and outline for a regional biological effects monitoring strategy

Field studies in the framework of the EU funded BEEP project (Biological Effects of Environmental Pollution in Marine Coastal Ecosystems, 2001-2004) aimed at validating and intercalibrating a battery of biomarkers of contaminant exposure and effects in selected indicator species in the Mediterranean, the North Atlantic and the Baltic Seas. Major strategic goals of the BEEP project were the development of a sensitive and cost-efficient biological effects monitoring approach, delivery of information and advice to end-user groups, and the implementation of a network of biomarker researchers around Europe. Based on the main results obtained in the Baltic Sea component of the BEEP the present paper summarises and assesses the applicability of biomarkers for different regions and species in this sea area. Moreover, a general strategy and some practical considerations for the monitoring of biological effects in the Baltic Sea are outlined.