Assessing parameter identifiability for multiple performance criteria to constrain model parameters

ABSTRACT

Reliable simulations of hydrological models require that model parameters are precisely identified. In constraining model parameters to small ranges, high parameter identifiability is achieved. In this study, it is investigated how precisely model parameters can be constrained in relation to a set of contrasting performance criteria. For this, model simulations with identical parameter samplings are carried out with a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to three contrasting catchments in Germany (lowland, mid-range mountains, alpine regions). Ten performance criteria including statistical metrics and signature measures are calculated for each model simulation. Based on the parameter identifiability that is computed separately for each performance criterion, model parameters are constrained to smaller ranges individually for each catchment. An iterative repetition of model simulations with successively constrained parameter ranges leads to more precise parameter identifiability and improves model performance. Based on these results, a more consistent handling of model parameters is achieved for model calibration.     

Variations in bottom water activity at the southern Argentine margin: indications from a seismic analysis of a continental slope terrace

Continental slope terraces at the southern Argentine margin are part of a significant contourite depositional system composed of a variety of drifts, channels, and sediment waves. Here, a refined seismostratigraphic model for the sedimentary development of the Valentin Feilberg Terrace located in ~4.1?km water depth is presented. Analyzing multichannel seismic profiles across and along this terrace, significant changes in terrace morphology and seismic reflection character are identified and interpreted to reflect variations in deep water hydrography from Late Miocene to recent times, involving variable flow of Antarctic Bottom Water and Circumpolar Deep Water. A prominent basin-wide aggradational seismic unit is interpreted to represent the Mid-Miocene climatic optimum (~17?C14?Ma). A major current reorganization can be inferred for the time ~14?C12?Ma when the Valentin Feilberg Terrace started growing due to the deposition of sheeted and mounded drifts. After ~12?Ma, bottom water flow remained vigorous at both margins of the terrace. Another intensification of bottom flow occurred at ~5?C6?Ma when a mounded drift, moats, and sediment waves developed on the terrace. This may have been caused by a general change in deep water mass organization following the closure of the Panamanian gateway, and a subsequent stronger southward flow of North Atlantic Deep Water.     

Seasonality in the North Sea during the Allerød and Late Medieval Climate Optimum using bivalve sclerochronology

Seasonal temperature patterns may have changed through time in response to current global warming. However, the temporal resolution of available proxy records is not sufficient to quantify paleotemperature seasonality prior to anthropogenic forcing of the climate. In the present study, we reconstructed seasonal and inter-annual temperature patterns of the North Sea during the last 140 years, the Allerød Interglacial and the Late Medieval Climate Optimum using sclerochronological and δ¹⁸O_aragonite data from bivalve shells, Arctica islandica. On average, the climate during 1278–1353 AD was ca. 1.1°C colder and seasonality was ca. 60% less than today. During the Allerød, long-term temperatures remained about 3.2°C below present values, and absolute summer and winter anomalies were ca. ?4 and ?2.7°C, respectively. However, seasonality was statistically indistinguishable from today. Long-term average temperatures compare well with existing data for the Late Medieval and Allerød, but detailed information on seasonality during the studied time intervals has never been presented before. Our data also demonstrated that annual instrumental and δ¹⁸O_aragonite-derived temperatures did not always match. This difference is explained by (1) NAO-driven salinity changes, which influence the temperature estimation from δ¹⁸O_aragonite and (2) food-driven changes in growth rates; portions of the shell that formed more rapidly are overrepresented in carbonate samples. Our study indicated that individual bivalve shells can open discrete, near-century long, ultra-high-resolution windows into the climate past. Such information can be vital for testing and verifying numerical climate models.     

Timing of Uralian orogenic gold mineralization at Kochkar in the evolution of the East Uralian granite-gneiss terrane

Gold mineralization at Kochkar (Urals, Russia) is hosted mainly by quartz lodes, which developed at lithological contacts between mafic dikes and granitoids of the Plast massif during late Carboniferous to early Permian, regional E–W compression in the East Uralian Zone (EUZ). The alteration mineralogy in mafic dikes comprises biotite, actinolite, albite, K-feldspar, quartz, epidote, tourmaline, sericite, pyrite, arsenopyrite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, fahlores, galena, bismuthinite, and gold, and in Plast granitoids quartz, sericite, calcite, epidote, and ore minerals. Geochemically, an enrichment of Si, K, Rb, Ba, S, base metals, W, and Au can be observed. The ore fluid had δ¹⁸O values between 8.2‰ and 9.5‰ typical for metamorphic or deep magmatic fluids. The tectonometamorphic evolution of the EUZ is marked by peak metamorphic conditions at 635±40°C and 5–6 kbar through 500±20°C during gold mineralization, and 300–350°C and 2–3 kbar. The last event was dated on a late, barren quartz vein formed during greenschist facies metamorphism at 265±3 Ma by the Rb–Sr method. Fluids related to this overprint had a δ¹⁸O value of 5.2‰ and an initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.70685 indicating that they are largely equilibrated with metamorphic lithologies of the EUZ. The Plast granitoids and the adjacent Borisov granite, which was dated at 358±23 Ma (U–Pb zircon age), have an adakitic character. This, together with the arc-signature of the mafic dikes, supports the setting of the EUZ within the Valerianovsky continental arc. Eastward subduction of the Uralian Ocean below this arc began during the late Devonian to early Carboniferous. Between 320 and 265 Ma, the oblique closure of the ocean resulted in doming of granitoid massifs in a sinistral transpressional regime, subsequent retrograde gold mineralization during E–W compression and a later greenschist facies overprint. This long-lasting retrograde evolution of the EUZ was caused by the lack of postcollisional collapse. Heat for a “deep-later" type of metamorphism and triggering the auriferous fluid system was supplied by radiogenic heating of an overthickened crust. The greenschist facies overprint at Kochkar and coeval crustal melting in the EUZ was additionally initiated by local external heating of the terrane. This could have been caused by syn- to postcollisional slab rollback or delamination resulting in magmatic underplating of the EUZ, which postdates orogenic gold mineralization at Kochkar. The tectonic interpretation of the EUZ indicates that gold mineralization at Kochkar formed in a mid-crustal environment of a continental magmatic arc at the cessation of active subduction predating post orogenic plutonism.     

Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs,simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model

Abstract

This study quantifies global changes in irrigation requirements for areas presently equipped for irrigation of major crop types, using climate projections from 19 GCMs up to the 2080s. Analysis is based on results from the global eco-hydrological model LPJmL that simulates the complex and dynamic interplay of direct and indirect climate change effects upon irrigation requirements. We find a decrease in global irrigation demand by ～17% in the ensemble median, due to a combination of beneficial CO₂ effects on plants, shorter growing periods and regional precipitation increases. In contrast, increases of >20% are projected with a high likelihood (i.e. in more than two thirds of the climate change scenarios) for some regions, including southern Europe, and, with a lower likelihood, for parts of Asia and North America as well. If CO₂ effects were not accounted for, however, global irrigation demand would hardly change, and increases would prevail in most regions except for southern Asia (where higher precipitation is projected). We stress that the CO₂ effects may not be realized everywhere, that irrigation requirements will probably increase further due to growing global food demand (not considered here), and that a significant amount of water to meet future irrigation requirements will have to be taken from fossil groundwater, environmental flow reserves or diverted rivers.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., and Heinke, J., 2013. Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs, simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–18.     

Zoning of platinum group mineral assemblages in the UG2 chromitite determined through in situ SEM-EDS-based image analysis

In situ scanning electron microscopy–energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry analysis of platinum group minerals (PGM) and base metal sulfides in the UG2 chromitite shows that this ore body is zoned along at least ∼6 km of strike. The uppermost part of the UG2 chromitite, referred to as the leader seam, is ∼16 cm thick and has a PGM assemblage that is dominated by PGE arsenides, sulpho-arsenides, and alloys (∼70 vol.% of all PGM), which are typical secondary PGM assemblages in other segments of UG2. This is the first time such laterally persistent secondary assemblages have been identified in the UG2 chromitite, as previously, they were only known to occur adjacent to transgressive fluid-bearing structures (e.g., pipes, faults). The underlying main seam is thicker (one to nine seams totaling ∼130 cm) and has a PGM assemblage that consists mostly of Pt sulfide, Pt–Pd sulfide, Pt–Rh–Cu sulfide, laurite, and Fe–Pt alloys (∼85 vol.% of all PGM), typically regarded as primary magmatic constituents of UG2 chromitite. There are, however, some subtle vertical changes in the PGM assemblages of the main seam that include the occasional presence of secondary assemblages in the top and bottom parts. The origin of these secondary PGM assemblages is related to alteration by hydrothermal fluids and/or fluid-rich melts that infiltrated during crystallization of the UG2 and may possibly have been derived from the UG2 chromitite itself.     

Importance of geological information for assessing drain flow in a Danish till landscape

There has, in recent years, been an increasing interest in developing nutrient load mitigation measures focussing on tile drains. To plan the location of such tile drain measures, it is important to know where in the landscape drain flow is generated and to understand the key factors governing drain flow dynamics. In the present study, we test two approaches to assess spatial patterns in drain flow generation and thereby assess the importance of including geological information. The approaches are the widely used topographical wetness index (TWI), based solely on elevation data, and hydrological models that include the subsurface geology. We set‐up an ensemble of 20 hydrological models based on 20 stochastically generated geological models to predict drain flow dynamics in the clay till Norsminde catchment in Denmark and test the results against TWI. We find that the hydrological models predict observed daily drain flow reasonably well. High drain flow volumes were found in stream valleys and in wetlands and lower drain flow volumes in the more hilly parts of the catchment. In spite of the apparent connection to the landscape, there was no statistically significant correlation between TWI and drain flow at grid scale (100 × 100 m). TWI was therefore not found to be a sufficient index on its own to assess where drain flow is generated, especially in the highlands of the catchment. The geology below 3 m was found to have a large impact on the drain flow, and correlations between sand percentage in the subsurface geology and drain flow volume were found to be statistically significant. Geological uncertainty therefore give rise to uncertainty on simulated drain flow, and this uncertainty was found to be high at the model grid scale but decreasing with increasing scale.     

Making the transition from discrete shot records to continuous seismic records and source wavefields,and its potential impact on survey efficiency and environmental footprint

A marine seismic method based on continuous source and receiver wavefields has been developed. The method requires continuous recording of the seismic data. The source that may consist of multiple source elements can emit signals continuously while moving. The ideal source wavefield to be used with this method should be as white as possible both in a temporal and a spatial sense to avoid deep notches in the spectrum enabling a stable multi-dimensional deconvolution. White noise has such properties. However, equipment that can generate white noise does not exist. In order to generate a continuous source wavefield that is approaching the properties of white noise using existing equipment onboard marine seismic vessels, individual air-guns can be triggered with short randomized time intervals in a near-continuous fashion. The main potential benefits with the method are to reduce the environmental impact of marine seismic surveys and to improve acquisition efficiency. The peak sound pressure levels are significantly reduced by triggering one air-gun at a time compared to conventional marine seismic sources. Sound exposure levels are also reduced in most directions. Since the method is based on continuous recording of seismic data and the air-guns are triggered based on time and not based on position, there are less vessel speed limitations compared to conventional marine seismic data acquisition. Also, because the source wavefield is spread out in time, the wavefields emitted from source elements in different cross-line positions can be designed such that the emitted wavefield is spatially white in this direction. This means that source elements in multiple cross-line positions can be operated simultaneously, potentially improving the cross-line sampling and/or the acquisition efficiency.     

Improving BeiDou real-time precise point positioning with numerical weather models

Precise positioning with the current Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System is proven to be of comparable accuracy to the Global Positioning System, which is at centimeter level for the horizontal components and sub-decimeter level for the vertical component. But the BeiDou precise point positioning (PPP) shows its limitation in requiring a relatively long convergence time. In this study, we develop a numerical weather model (NWM) augmented PPP processing algorithm to improve BeiDou precise positioning. Tropospheric delay parameters, i.e., zenith delays, mapping functions, and horizontal delay gradients, derived from short-range forecasts from the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are applied into BeiDou real-time PPP. Observational data from stations that are capable of tracking the BeiDou constellation from the International GNSS Service (IGS) Multi-GNSS Experiments network are processed, with the introduced NWM-augmented PPP and the standard PPP processing. The accuracy of tropospheric delays derived from NCEP is assessed against with the IGS final tropospheric delay products. The positioning results show that an improvement in convergence time up to 60.0 and 66.7% for the east and vertical components, respectively, can be achieved with the NWM-augmented PPP solution compared to the standard PPP solutions, while only slight improvement in the solution convergence can be found for the north component. A positioning accuracy of 5.7 and 5.9 cm for the east component is achieved with the standard PPP that estimates gradients and the one that estimates no gradients, respectively, in comparison to 3.5 cm of the NWM-augmented PPP, showing an improvement of 38.6 and 40.1%. Compared to the accuracy of 3.7 and 4.1 cm for the north component derived from the two standard PPP solutions, the one of the NWM-augmented PPP solution is improved to 2.0 cm, by about 45.9 and 51.2%. The positioning accuracy for the up component improves from 11.4 and 13.2 cm with the two standard PPP solutions to 8.0 cm with the NWM-augmented PPP solution, an improvement of 29.8 and 39.4%, respectively.     

Local effects of blue mussels around turbine foundations in an ecosystem model of Nysted off-shore wind farm, Denmark

The development of off-shore wind farms along the coastline of north-west Europe is rapidly increasing; it is therefore important to study how this will affect the marine environment. The present study modelled the growth and feed-backs of blue mussels in natural beds and on turbine foundations in an off-shore wind farm (OWF) located in a shallow coastal ecosystem by coupling a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model to a small-scale 3D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model. The model results showed that blue mussels located higher up in the water column on turbine pillars achieved a 7–18 times higher biomass than those located on the scour protection because the former experience an enhanced advective food supply. Secondly, the high biomasses of blue mussels on foundations created local ‘hot spots’ of biological activity and changed ecosystem dynamics due to their feed-backs e.g. ingestion of microplankton and copepods, excretion of ammonium and egestion of faecal pellets. The model results were supported by field measurements around foundations of Chl a concentrations and biomasses of the fauna community. Our study emphasised that OWFs seem to be particularly favourable for blue mussels in the western Baltic Sea and that the functioning of the OWFs as artificial reef ecosystems depends upon how the blue mussels interact with their local pelagic and benthic environment.