An ocean observation system for monitoring the affects of climate change on the ecology and sustainability of pelagic fisheries in the Pacific Ocean

Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change.     

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.     

Bridging the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Turbulence in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

With a focus towards developing multiscale capabilities in numerical weather prediction models, the specific problem of the transition from the mesoscale to the microscale is investigated. For that purpose, idealized one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model framework. It is demonstrated that switching from one-dimensional turbulent diffusion in the mesoscale model to three-dimensional LES mixing does not necessarily result in an instantaneous development of turbulence in the LES domain. On the contrary, very large fetches are needed for the natural transition to turbulence to occur. The computational burden imposed by these long fetches necessitates the development of methods to accelerate the generation of turbulence on a nested LES domain forced by a smooth mesoscale inflow. To that end, four new methods based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field along the LES inflow boundaries are developed, and investigated under convective conditions. Each method accelerated the development of turbulence within the LES domain, with two of the methods resulting in a rapid generation of production and inertial range energy content associated to microscales that is consistent with non-nested simulations using periodic boundary conditions. The cell perturbation approach, the simplest and most efficient of the best performing methods, was investigated further under neutral and stable conditions. Successful results were obtained in all the regimes, where satisfactory agreement of mean velocity, variances and turbulent fluxes, as well as velocity and temperature spectra, was achieved with reference non-nested simulations. In contrast, the non-perturbed LES solution exhibited important energy deficits associated to a delayed establishment of fully-developed turbulence. The cell perturbation method has negligible computational cost, significantly accelerates the generation of realistic turbulence, and requires minimal parameter tuning, with the necessary information relatable to mean inflow conditions provided by the mesoscale solution.     

Simultaneous calibration of surface flow and baseflow simulations: a revisit of the SWAT model calibration framework

Accurate analysis of water flow pathways from rainfall to streams is critical for simulating water use, climate change impact, and contaminants transport. In this study, we developed a new scheme to simultaneously calibrate surface flow (SF) and baseflow (BF) simulations of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) by combing evolutionary multi‐objective optimization (EMO) and BF separation techniques. The application of this scheme demonstrated pronounced trade‐off of SWAT's performance on SF and BF simulations. The simulated major water fluxes and storages variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and groundwater) using the multiple parameters from EMO span wide ranges. Uncertainty analysis was conducted by Bayesian model averaging of the Pareto optimal solutions. The 90% confidence interval (CI) estimated using all streamflows substantially overestimate the uncertainty of low flows on BF days while underestimating the uncertainty of high flows on SF days. Despite using statistical criteria calculated based on streamflow for model selection, it is important to conduct diagnostic analysis of the agreement of SWAT behaviour and actual watershed dynamics. The new calibration technique can serve as a useful tool to explore the trade‐off between SF and BF simulations and provide candidates for further diagnostic assessment and model identification. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

Natural Hazards - Effective tsunami risk reduction requires an understanding of how at-risk populations are specifically vulnerable to tsunami threats. Vulnerability assessments primarily have been...     

Rare and unusual mineral inclusions in diamonds from Mwadui, Tanzania

Syngenetic diamond inclusions from the Mwadui kimberlite reveal that an unusually fertile section of lithospheric mantle beneath the Central African Craton was sampled. This is shown by a very high ratio of lherzolitic to harzburgitic garnet inclusions (1:2) and low Mg/Fe-ratios in olivine and orthopyroxene. Geothermometry applied to the peridotitic inclusions indicates disequilibrium between non-touching inclusion pairs to be common. Disequilibrium between garnet-olivine and garnet-orthopyroxene pairs suggests successive iron enrichment during diamond formation, e.g. leading to the presence of harzburgitic garnet and lherzolitic olivine in the same diamond. Apart from the dominant peridotitic inclusion suite (88%), rare eclogitic inclusions occur (2%) and a number of uncertain paragenesis. Two diamonds, one with eclogitic garnets with moderate pyroxene solid solution and the other with a single ferro-periclase inclusion, suggest the contribution of a small sub-lithospheric component. The finding of the association Fe-FeO-Fe₃O₄ in one single diamond indicates diamond formation over a large range of f _O2 conditions, possibly along redox fronts. Steep compositional gradients may also be reflected by the joint occurrence of harzburgitic garnet and a SiO₂-phase in the same diamond. Alternatively the formation of the SiO₂-phase may be due to extreme carbonation of the peridotitic source. Further unusual findings include the exsolution of a silicate phase from magnetite inclusions, (i.e. primary solution of γ-olivine) and an ilmenite inclusion with an eskolaite (Cr₂O₃) component of 14.5 mol%, the latter together with harzburgitic paragenesis silicate inclusions. Received: 23 August 1997 / Accepted: 7 January 1998     

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.     

Liver lesions in winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) from Jamaica Bay,New York: Indications of environmental degradation

Liver sections of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) collected from Jamaica Bay and Shinnecock Bay, New York, in 1989, were examined microscopically to determine the pervasiveness of liver lesions observed previously in Jamaica Bay winter flounder. Neoplastic lesions were not detected in fish from Jamaica Bay or the Shinnecock Bay reference site. Twenty-two percent of Jamaica Bay winter flounder examined (n=103) had unusual vacuolization of hepatocytes and biliary pre-ductal and ductal cells (referred to hereafter as the vacuolated cell lesion). The lesion, identical to that found in 25% of Jamaica Bay winter flounder examined in 1988, has previously been identified in fishes taken from highly polluted regions of the Atlantic coast (e.g., Boston Harbor, Massachusetts, and Black Rock Harbor, Connecticut). Prevalence of the vacuolated cell lesion in winter flounder from Jamaica Bay was significantly greater (p<0.0001) than in 102 specimens collected from Shinnecock Bay. Current scientific literature indicates vacuolated hepatocytes and cholangiocytes are chronically injured and that the extent of their deformity is consistent with the action of a hepatotoxicant. The high prevalence of vacuolated hepatocytes in Jamaica Bay winter flounder and absence of the lesion in flounder from reference sites strongly supports the hypothesis that this impairment is a manifestation of a toxic condition in at least some portions of Jamaica Bay.     

Religion and governmentality: Understanding governance in urban Brazil

In this paper I argue that geographies of religion are fundamental to understanding governance and social order in contemporary urban space. More specifically, I show how Foucault’s notion of governmentality characterizes regimes of power beyond the state apparatus, positing that religion and churches also produce and maintain the knowledges, truths, and social order associated with governmentality and self-regulated governance. By considering the geography of religion literature within the context of Foucualt’s work, I illustrate the importance of religious and spiritual practices to contemporary urban space, and the roles they play in producing and maintaining governance and socio-political order. My purpose is not to suggest that governmentality has been misapplied as a theoretical tool for understanding the state and political power, but to show how the term actually describes power more generally, including spiritual moments in addition to political ones. Drawing from my case study in Fortaleza, Brazil, I substantiate my theoretical argument using empirical examples, showing how governmentality is produced through religion and churches and the relationship between spiritual practices and governance in everyday space.