On a power series solution to the Boussinesq equation

For certain initial and boundary conditions the Boussinesq equation, a nonlinear partial differential equation describing the flow of water in unconfined aquifers, can be reduced to a boundary value problem for a nonlinear ordinary differential equation. Using Song et al.'s (2007) [7] approach, we show that for zero head initial condition and power-law flux boundary condition at the inlet boundary, the solution in the form of power series can be obtained with Barenblatt's (1990) [2] rescaling procedure applied to the power series solution obtained in Song et al. (2007) [7] for the power-law head boundary condition. Polynomial approximations can then be obtained by taking terms from the power series. Although for a small number of terms the newly obtained approximations may be worse than polynomial approximations obtained by other techniques, any desired accuracy can be achieved by taking more terms from the power series.     

Subglacial processes from drumlins in Clew Bay,western Ireland

Interpretation of subglacial processes and environments can be usefully informed by the stratigraphy and structures of sediments preserved within drumlins, and the down‐ice variability of these sediments. Drumlins in Clew Bay, western Ireland, were formed by westward late Pleistocene ice flow onto the Atlantic shelf, but the depositional processes and environments of these sediments remain uncertain. This study describes and interprets the drumlin stratigraphy and sediment properties and structures from two drumlins on the south side of Clew Bay. Drumlin sediments are dominated by massive to stratified diamicton deposited subglacially by deformation of flows of varying rheology. Folds, shears and clastic dikes within the sediments suggest active subglacial water flow related to variations in ice flow and ice‐bed coupling. The distal ends of the drumlins are dominated by stratified diamicton and gravel units with sandy interbeds. These sediments reflect deposition in a leeside subglacial cavity formed coevally with bedform development. A model is proposed that can account for sediment stratigraphic patterns and drumlin formation. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does geographic location impact the survival differential between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers?

Although mammography screening programs aim to diagnose breast cancer at an early stage, not all tumours are detected during the regular screening examination. This study examines the influence of various characteristics, including geographical residence, on the survival between screen- and interval-detected breast cancers among participants of a public population-based breast screening program in Queensland, Australia. The investigation was performed using the linked population-based datasets from BreastScreen Queensland and the Queensland Cancer Registry for the period of 1997–2008 for women aged 40–89 years at diagnosis. A Bayesian spatial relative survival modelling approach that accommodates rare outcomes in small geographic regions was adopted, with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo computation, to evaluate the relative excess risk of breast cancer. In the multivariate Bayesian spatial model, higher relative excess risk of mortality was observed in interval-detected cancer (RER = 1.59, 95 % credible interval = [1.33, 1.89]) compared to screen-detected cancer. Higher cancer survival among the study cohort was also observed among younger women (40–59 years), those of non-Indigenous ethnicity, with localised (stage I) tumour stage as well as those not in the work force. There was no independent association with marital status. Moreover, there was no substantive evidence of either measured geographical or latent random spatial inequalities in survival among screening participants across Queensland, meaning the higher survival for screen-detected breast cancer patients compared to interval-detected women was consistent across the state. These results provide suggestive evidence supporting the effectiveness of the BreastScreen Queensland screening program in reaching socio-economically disadvantaged women as well as those living in rural and remote areas of the state, but also highlights the need for any interval cancer awareness programs to be geographically widespread.     

Sustainability Through an Alternative Property‐Rights Regime for Bangladesh's Mangrove Forest

This study examines the challenges of achieving sustainable management of the world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, in Bangladesh. The Sundarbans is currently managed by the Bangladesh Department of Forest, under a state property‐rights regime, while our study explores an alternative property‐rights regime. We employed a mixed‐method approach to examine the prospects of alternative management and livelihood strategies to achieve sustainability. Both focus groups and household surveying were used to assess the opportunities for, and barriers to, achieving sustainability. It was found that two conflicting groups—forest‐dependent communities and foresters—are responsible for policy failures due to the absence of power‐sharing arrangements, nor is it likely a common property‐rights regime will be enough to cap degradation and achieve sustainability, while supply‐and‐demand policy interventions may well could help achieve sustainable management of the Sundarbans.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

A large landslide event in a post‐glacial landscape: rethinking glacial legacy

Threlkeld Knotts (c. 500 m above sea level) in the English Lake District has hitherto been considered to be a glacially‐modified intrusion of microgranite. However, its surface features are incompatible with glacial modification; neither can these nor the subsurface structures revealed by ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) be explained by post‐glacial subaerial processes acting on a glacially‐modified microgranite intrusion. Here we re‐interpret Threlkeld Knotts as a very large post‐glacial landslide involving the microgranite, with an estimated volume of about 4 × 10⁷ m³. This interpretation is tested against published and recent information on the geology of the site, the glacial geomorphic history of the area and newly‐acquired GPR data. More than 60 large post‐Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) rock–slope failures have significantly modified the glaciated landscape of the Lake District; this is one of the largest. Recognition of this major landslide deposit in such a well‐studied environment highlights the need to continuously re‐examine landscapes in the light of increasing knowledge of geomorphic processes and with available technology in currently active or de‐glaciating environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annual to decadal morphodynamics of the foredune system at Greenwich Dunes,Prince Edward Island,Canada

The purpose of this study was to quantify relationships between season, sediment availability, sediment transport pathways, and beach/foredune morphology at Greenwich Dunes, PEI. This was done for periods ranging from a few days to multiple decades using erosion pins, bedframe measurements, annual surveys, and digital photogrammetry using historical aerial photographs. The relative significance of seasonal/annual processes versus response of the foredune system to broader geomorphic controls (e.g. relative sea level rise, storms, etc.) was also assessed. The data show that there are clear seasonal differences in the patterns of sand supply from the beach to the foredune at Greenwich and that there are differences in sediment supply to the foredune between the east and west reaches of the study area, resulting in ongoing differences in foredune morphology. They also demonstrate that models that incorporate wind climate alone, or even models that include other factors like beach moisture, would not be able to predict the amount of sediment movement from the beach to the foredune in this environment unless there were some way to parameterize system morphology, especially the presence or absence of a dune ramp. Finally, the data suggest that the foredune can migrate landward while maintaining its form via transfers of sediment from the stoss slope, over the crest, and onto the lee slope. Although the rate of foredune development or recovery after disturbance changes over time due to morphological feedback, the overall decadal evolution of the foredune system at Greenwich is consistent with, and supports, the Davidson‐Arnott (2005) conceptual model of dune transgression under rising sea level. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Outlier separability analysis with a multiple alternative hypotheses test

Outlier separability analysis is a fundamental component of modern geodetic measurement analysis, positioning, navigation, and many other applications. The current theory of outlier separability is based on using two alternative hypotheses—an assumption that may not necessarily be valid. In this paper, the current theory of outlier separability is statistically analysed and then extended to the general case, where there are multiple alternative hypotheses. Taking into consideration the complexity of the critical region and the probability density function of the outlier test, the bounds of the associated statistical decision probabilities are then developed. With this theory, the probabilities of committing type I, II, and III errors can be controlled so that the probability of successful identification of an outlier can be guaranteed when performing data snooping. The theoretical findings are then demonstrated using a simulated GPS point positioning example. Detailed analysis shows that the larger the correlation coefficient, between the outlier statistics, the smaller the probability of committing a type II error and the greater the probability of committing a type III error. When the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.8, there is a far greater chance of committing a type III error than committing a type II error. In addition, to guarantee successful identification of an outlier with a set probability, the minimal detectable size of the outlier (often called the Minimal Detectable Bias or MDB) should dramatically increase with the correlation coefficient.     

Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.