Statistics of extremes in hydrology

The statistics of extremes have played an important role in engineering practice for water resources design and management. How recent developments in the statistical theory of extreme values can be applied to improve the rigor of hydrologic applications and to make such analyses more physically meaningful is the central theme of this paper. Such methodological developments primarily relate to maximum likelihood estimation in the presence of covariates, in combination with either the block maxima or peaks over threshold approaches. Topics that are treated include trends in hydrologic extremes, with the anticipated intensification of the hydrologic cycle as part of global climate change. In an attempt to link downscaling (i.e., relating large-scale atmosphere–ocean circulation to smaller-scale hydrologic variables) with the statistics of extremes, statistical downscaling of hydrologic extremes is considered. Future challenges are reviewed, such as the development of more rigorous statistical methodology for regional analysis of extremes, as well as the extension of Bayesian methods to more fully quantify uncertainty in extremal estimation. Examples include precipitation and streamflow extremes, as well as economic damage associated with such extreme events, with consideration of trends and dependence on patterns in atmosphere–ocean circulation (e.g., El Niño phenomenon).     

Seasonal variability of cohesive sediment aggregation in the Bach Dang–Cam Estuary, Haiphong (Vietnam)

In the Bach Dang–Cam Estuary, northern Vietnam, mechanisms governing cohesive sediment aggregation were investigated in situ in 2008–2009. As part of the Red River delta, this estuary exhibits a marked contrast in hydrological conditions between the monsoon and dry seasons. The impact on flocculation processes was assessed by means of surveys of water discharge, suspended particulate matter concentration and floc size distributions (FSDs) conducted during a tidal cycle at three selected sites along the estuary. A method was developed for calculating the relative volume concentration for the modes of various size classes from FSDs provided by the LISST 100X (Sequoia Scientific Inc.). It was found that all FSDs comprised four modes identified as particles/flocculi, fine and coarse microflocs, and macroflocs. Under the influence of the instantaneous turbulent kinetic energy, their proportions varied but without significant modification of their median diameters. In particular, when the turbulence level corresponded to a Kolmogorov microscale of less than ∼235 μm, a major breakup of flocs resulted in the formation of particles/flocculi and fine microflocs. Fluctuations in turbulence level were governed by seasonal variations in freshwater discharge and by the tidal cycle. During the wet season, strong freshwater input induced a high turbulent energy level that tended to generate sediment transfer from the coarser size classes (macroflocs, coarse microflocs) to finer ones (particles/flocculi and fine microflocs), and to promote a transport of sediment seawards. During the dry season, the influence of tides predominated. The turbulent energy level was then only episodically sufficiently high to generate transfer of sediment between floc size classes. At low turbulent energy, modifications in the proportions of floc size classes were due to differential settling. Tidal pumping produced a net upstream transport of sediment. Associated with the settling of sediment trapped in a near-bed layer at low turbulent energy, this causes the silting up of the waterways leading to the harbour of Haiphong.     

The Effect of Scale on the Applicability of Taylor’s Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Taylor’s frozen turbulence hypothesis is the central assumption invoked in most experiments designed to investigate turbulence physics with time resolving sensors. It is also frequently used in theoretical discussions when linking Lagrangian to Eulerian flow formalisms. In this work we seek to quantify the effectiveness of Taylor’s hypothesis on the field scale using water vapour as a passive tracer. A horizontally orientated Raman lidar is used to capture the humidity field in space and time above an agricultural region in Switzerland. High resolution wind speed and direction measurements are conducted simultaneously allowing for a direct test of Taylor’s hypothesis at the field scale. Through a wavelet decomposition of the lidar humidity measurements we show that the scale of turbulent motions has a strong influence on the applicability of Taylor’s hypothesis. This dependency on scale is explained through the use of dimensional analysis. We identify a ‘persistency scale’ that can be used to quantify the effectiveness of Taylor’s hypothesis, and present the accuracy of the hypothesis as a function of this non-dimensional length scale. These results are further investigated and verified through the use of large-eddy simulations.     

Thermal segmentation along the N. Ecuador–S. Colombia margin (1–4°N): Prominent influence of sedimentation rate in the trench

Along the deformation front of the North Ecuador–South Colombia (NESC) margin, both surface heat flow and trench sediment thickness show prominent along-strike variations, indicating significant spatial variations in sedimentation rate. Investigating these variations helps us address the important question of how trench sedimentation influences the temperature distribution along the interplate contact and the extent of the megathrust seismogenic zone. We examine this issue by analysing 1/ a new dense reflection data set, 2/ pre-stack depth migration of selected multichannel seismic reflection lines, 3/ numerous newly-identified bottom-simulating reflectors and 4/ the first heat probe measurements in the region. We develop thermal models that include sediment deposition and compaction on the cooling oceanic plate as well as viscous corner flow in the mantle wedge. We estimate that the temperature from 60–150 °C to 350–450 °C, commonly associated with the updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone, extends along the plate interface over a downdip distance of 160 to 190 ± 20 km. We conclude that the updip limit of the seismogenic zone for the great megathrust earthquake of 1979 is associated with low-temperature (60–70 °C) processes. Our models also suggest that 60–70% of the two-fold decrease in measured heat flow from 3°N to 2.8°N is related to an abrupt southward increase in sedimentation rate in the trench. Such a change may potentially induce a landward shift of the 60–150 °C isotherms, and thus the updip limit of the seismogenic zone, by 10 to 20 km.     

Eustatic and hydrodynamic controls on the architecture of a deep shelf sand bank (Celtic Sea)

The architecture of a tidal sand bank in the south-eastern Celtic Sea was examined using very high-resolution seismic surveys. The bank comprises four depositional units. The lowest unit 1 is characterized by gently dipping (1–8°) strata that strike parallel to the length of the bank. Unit 1 is erosionally overlain by unit 2, which forms the bulk of the bank. This unit consists of stacked sets of downcurrent-dipping (7–12°) master bedding formed by climbing, sinuous-crested tidal dunes that are up to 20 m high. These deposits are locally incised by an anastomosed channel network (unit 3) that may represent a buried swatchway system. The upper part of the bank comprises wave-related deposits that are mainly preserved on the bank flanks (unit 4). The outer bank surface is erosional. The bank is believed to have formed during the last post-glacial sea-level rise. The facies evolution from unit 1 to unit 3 indicates an upward increase in tidal energy, mainly characterized by the thickening of dune cross-bed sets in unit 2. The majority of bank growth is inferred to have occurred in water depths of the order of 60 m. This evolution was controlled by relative sea-level rise, which is likely to have caused an episode of tidal resonance with associated strong tidal currents that were responsible for the incision of the deep, cross-cutting channels of unit 3. The transition to wave-dominated sedimentation in unit 4 is related to the decay of resonance with continued sea-level rise.     

LMDZ5B: the atmospheric component of the IPSL climate model with revisited parameterizations for clouds and convection

Based on a decade of research on cloud processes, a new version of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model has been developed that corresponds to a complete recasting of the parameterization of turbulence, convection and clouds. This LMDZ5B version includes a mass-flux representation of the thermal plumes or rolls of the convective boundary layer, coupled to a bi-Gaussian statistical cloud scheme, as well as a parameterization of the cold pools generated below cumulonimbus by re-evaporation of convective precipitation. The triggering and closure of deep convection are now controlled by lifting processes in the sub-cloud layer. An available lifting energy and lifting power are provided both by the thermal plumes and by the spread of cold pools. The individual parameterizations were carefully validated against the results of explicit high resolution simulations. Here we present the work done to go from those new concepts and developments to a full 3D atmospheric model, used in particular for climate change projections with the IPSL-CM5B coupled model. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments, we document the differences with the previous LMDZ5A version distinguishing the role of parameterization changes from that of model tuning. Improvements found previously in single-column simulations of case studies are confirmed in the 3D model: (1) the convective boundary layer and cumulus clouds are better represented and (2) the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall over continents is delayed by several hours, solving a longstanding problem in climate modeling. The variability of tropical rainfall is also larger in LMDZ5B at intraseasonal time-scales. Significant biases of the LMDZ5A model however remain, or are even sometimes amplified. The paper emphasizes the importance of parameterization improvements and model tuning in the frame of climate change studies as well as the new paradigm that represents the improvement of 3D climate models under the control of single-column case studies simulations.     

Unsteady soil erosion due to rainfall impact: a model of sediment sorting on the hillslope

A new method is presented for predicting sediment sorting associated with soil erosion by raindrop impact for non-equilibrium conditions. The form of soil erosion considered is that which results from raindrop impact in the presence of shallow overland flow itself where the flow is not capable of eroding sediment. The method specifically considers early time runoff and erosion when sediment leaving an eroding area is generally finer and thus may have a higher potential for transport of sorbed pollutants. The new mechanism described is the formation of a deposited layer on the soil surface, which is shown to lead to sediment sorting during an erosion event. The deposited layer is taken to have two roles in this process: to temporarily store sediment on the surface between successive trajectories, and to shield the underlying soil from erosive stresses. Equations describing the dynamics of the suspended sediment mixture and the deposited layer are developed. By integrating these equations over the length of eroding land element and over the duration of the erosion event, an event-based solution is proposed which predicts total sediment sorting over the event. This solution is shown to be consistent with experimentally observed trends in enrichment of fine sediment. Predictions using this approach are found to only partly explain measured enrichment for sets of experimental data for two quite different soils, but to be in poor agreement for an aridsol of dispersive character. It is concluded that the formation of the deposited layer is a significant mechanism in the enrichment of fine sediment and associated sorbed pollutants, but that processes in the dispersive soil are not as well described by the theory presented.     

A simple method for the rapid determination of exponential soil-water diffusivity in the laboratory

We present a simple method in two dimensions for the determination of exponential soil-water diffusivity. This determination is made by measuring the wetting front position when water is injected in the soil at different fluxes. The results are exact and represent an improvement over previous techniques both in terms of ease and accuracy.¹     

Polyphase wrench tectonics in the southern french Massif Central: kinematic inferences from pre- and syntectonic granitoids

In the Variscan French Massif Central, the South Limousin area consists of low- to medium-grade metamorphic rocks intruded by two granitic bodies. The structural and textural analyses of these plutons undertaken in parallel with the structural analysis of their host rocks allow us to characterize and to date different stages in the tectonic evolution of this area. This study shows that the South Limousin area experienced successivelly two strike-slip events along two geographically distinct shear zones, from north to south the left-lateral Estivaux and the right-lateral South Limousin strike-slip faults, respectively. These ductile faults subdivide the South Limousin into three structural units, from north to south they are the Upper Gneiss unit, Thiviers-Payzac unit .and Génis unit. The two granitic bodies intrude the Thiviers-Payzac unit only. The younger Estivaux granite is a syntectonic pluton which emplaced during left-lateral wrenching. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates from biotites indicate an Early Carboniferous age (346 ± 3 Ma). The older granite is a pretectonic body. It is the Ordovician Saut du Saumon augen orthogneiss in which detailed structural analyses show the polyphase nature of the solid-state deformation. Our microtectonic data indicate that the right-lateral motions overprint the left-lateral ones and produce apparently symmetrical fabrics.