A Bayesian method for missing rainfall estimation using a conceptual rainfall–runoff model

The estimation of missing rainfall data is an important problem for data analysis and modelling studies in hydrology. This paper develops a Bayesian method to address missing rainfall estimation from runoff measurements based on a pre-calibrated conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The Bayesian method assigns posterior probability of rainfall estimates proportional to the likelihood function of measured runoff flows and prior rainfall information, which is presented by uniform distributions in the absence of rainfall data. The likelihood function of measured runoff can be determined via the test of different residual error models in the calibration phase. The application of this method to a French urban catchment indicates that the proposed Bayesian method is able to assess missing rainfall and its uncertainty based only on runoff measurements, which provides an alternative to the reverse model for missing rainfall estimates.     

The northwestern Argentina Tarija Basin: Stratigraphy, depositional systems, and controlling factors in a glaciated basin

The Tarija Basin, shared by Bolivia and Argentina, was subjected to glacial conditions during the Late Carboniferous and Early Permian. The Macharetí and Mandiyutí groups deposited during these times record in their facies advances and retreats of the Gondwanan ice cap. The lithostratigraphic subdivision of these groups presents stages with minor glacial influence in the basal formations of each group (Tupambi and Escarpment formations), whereas in the upper units, glacially related deposition prevails (Tarija and San Telmo formations). Typical facies deposited in relation to glacial settings are diamictites and mudstones mainly related to proglacial, lacustrine environments. During the stages of main ice retreat, deposition was dominated by fluvial and deltaic sandstones. Significant erosion and deep valley incision characterize the basal surfaces of both groups. Conversely, the stratigraphic surface that separates the sandy formations from the overlying diamictites tends to be rather flat. The dynamics of the glacial cap are not only reflected in the facies distribution but also were a key factor in creating accommodation space; the changes in the glacial-driven subsidence linked to the advance and retreat of the ice were its main control.     

Apport des isotopes stables dans l'estimation des altitudes de recharge de sources thermales du MarocRecharge altitude estimation of thermal springs using stable isotopes in Morocco

The recharge altitude estimation of thermal springs from northern and eastern Morocco using ¹⁸O and ²H contents requires the definition of regional isotopic altitudinal gradients (?0.25‰ for 100 m for the Rif and ?0.30‰ for the East) and the calculation of residence time using ¹⁴C. The altitudes of emergence vary widely between 170 and 1040 m under the altitude of the recharge areas. The ¹⁸O and ²H compositions of palaeowaters ($\text{>10}\text{000}$ yr BP) indicate two effects, altitude and palaeoclimate. To cite this article: A. Winckel et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 469–474.     

New Image Modeling Approaches

Earth observation relies heavily on imaging. Extraction of informationin turn relies on image processing and analysis. A new and powerfulmethodology has come to the fore in recent years, based on the waveletand other multiscale transforms. Of the many possible application areaswe describe in this paper some approaches for object and feature findingin images', noise filtering of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, andthe automatic geometrical registration of different images.     

The Teggiolo zone: a key to the Helvetic–Penninic connection (stratigraphy and tectonics in the Val Bavona,Ticino, Central Alps)

The Teggiolo zone is the sedimentary cover of the Antigorio nappe, one of the lowest tectonic units of the Penninic Central Alps. Detailed mapping, stratigraphic and structural analyses, and comparisons with less metamorphic series in several well-studied domains of the Alps, provide a new stratigraphic interpretation. The Teggiolo zone is comprised of several sedimentary cycles, separated by erosive surfaces and large stratigraphic gaps, which cover the time span from Triassic to Eocene. At Mid-Jurassic times it appears as an uplifted, partially emergent block, marking the southern limit of the main Helvetic basin (the Limiting South-Helvetic Rise LSHR). The main mass of the Teggiolo calcschists, whose base truncates the Triassic–Jurassic cycles and can erode the Antigorio basement, consists of fine-grained clastic sediments analogous to the deep-water flyschoid deposits of Late Cretaceous to Eocene age in the North-Penninic (or Valais s.l.) basins. Thus the Antigorio-Teggiolo domain occupies a crucial paleogeographic position, on the boundary between the Helvetic and Penninic realms: from Triassic to Early Cretaceous its affinity is with the Helvetic; at the end of Cretaceous it is incorporated into the North-Penninic basins. An unexpected result is the discovery of the important role played by complex formations of wildflysch type at the top of the Teggiolo zone. They contain blocks of various sizes. According to their nature, three different associations are distinguished that have specific vertical and lateral distributions. These blocks give clues to the existence of territories that have disappeared from the present-day level of observation and impose constraints on the kinematics of early folding and embryonic nappe emplacement. Tectonics produced several phases of superimposed folds and schistosities, more in the metasediments than in the gneissic basement. Older deformations that predate the amplification of the frontal hinge of the nappe generated the dominant schistosity and the km-wide Vanzèla isoclinal fold.     

Radar detection of Asteroid 2002 AA29

Radar echoes from Earth co-orbital Asteroid 2002 AA29 yield a total-power radar cross section of 2.9×10⁻⁵ km² ±25%, a circular polarization ratio of SC/OC=0.26±0.07, and an echo bandwidth of at least 1.5 Hz. Combining these results with the estimate of its visual absolute magnitude, H_V=25.23±0.24, from reported Spacewatch photometry indicates an effective diameter of 25±5 m, a rotation period no longer than 33 min, and an average surface bulk density no larger than 2.0 g cm⁻³; the asteroid is radar dark and optically bright, and its statistically most likely spectral class is S. The H_V estimate from LINEAR photometry (23.58±0.38) is not compatible with either Spacewatch's H_V or our radar results. If a bias this large were generally present in LINEAR's estimates of H_V for asteroids it has discovered or observed, then estimates of the current completeness of the Spaceguard Survey would have to be revised downward.     

Radar and photometric observations and shape modeling of contact binary near-Earth Asteroid (8567) 1996 HW1

We observed near-Earth Asteroid (8567) 1996 HW1 at the Arecibo Observatory on six dates in September 2008, obtaining radar images and spectra. By combining these data with an extensive set of new lightcurves taken during 2008-2009 and with previously published lightcurves from 2005, we were able to reconstruct the object’s shape and spin state. 1996 HW1 is an elongated, bifurcated object with maximum diameters of 3.8 × 1.6 × 1.5 km and a contact-binary shape. It is the most bifurcated near-Earth asteroid yet studied and one of the most elongated as well. The sidereal rotation period is 8.76243 ± 0.00004 h and the pole direction is within 5° of ecliptic longitude and latitude (281°, −31°). Radar astrometry has reduced the orbital element uncertainties by 27% relative to the a priori orbit solution that was based on a half-century of optical data. Simple dynamical arguments are used to demonstrate that this asteroid could have originated as a binary system that tidally decayed and merged.     

The 2010 European Venus Explorer (EVE) mission proposal

The European Venus Explorer (EVE) mission described in this paper was proposed in December 2010 to ESA as an ‘M-class’ mission under the Cosmic Vision programme. It consists of a single balloon platform floating in the middle of the main convective cloud layer of Venus at an altitude of 55?km, where temperatures and pressures are benign (～25°C and ～0.5 bar). The balloon float lifetime would be at least 10 Earth days, long enough to guarantee at least one full circumnavigation of the planet. This offers an ideal platform for the two main science goals of the mission: study of the current climate through detailed characterization of cloud-level atmosphere, and investigation of the formation and evolution of Venus, through careful measurement of noble gas isotopic abundances. These investigations would provide key data for comparative planetology of terrestrial planets in our solar system and beyond.     

Experimental determination of F and Cl partitioning between lherzolite and basaltic melt

We experimentally determined F and Cl partition coefficients together with that of 19 trace elements (including REE, U-Th, HFSE and LILE) between basaltic melt and lherzolite minerals: olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, plagioclase and garnet. Under conditions from 8 to 25 kbars and from 1,265 to 1,430°C, compatibilities of F and Cl are globally ordered as D ^Cpx/melt > D ^Opx/melt > D ^Grt/melt > D ^Ol/melt > D ^Plag/melt, and D _F ^mineral/melt is larger than D _Cl^mineral/melt. Four other major results were brought to light. (1) Chlorine partition coefficients positively correlate with the jadeite component in orthopyroxene, and increase of the CaTs component promotes Cl incorporation in clinopyroxene. (2) Variations of fluorine partition coefficients correlate strongly with melt viscosity. (3) F and Cl partition coefficients correlate with the Young’s modulus (E ₀) of pyroxene octahedral sites (M sites) and with Raman vibrational modes of pyroxenes. This demonstrates a fundamental interaction between the M site of pyroxenes and the incorporation of F and Cl. (4) We also determined the parameters of the lattice-strain model applied to 3+ cation trace elements for the two M sites in orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene: D ₀^M1, D ₀^M2, r ₀^M1, r ₀^M2, E ₀^M1 and E ₀^M2.