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151.
Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that
are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river.
We present an example of a rapid flood risk assessment methodology for the Elbe River. A 1D hydraulic routing model is extended
by including the effect of planned (regulated and unregulated) and unintended retention (dike breaches) on the peak water
levels. We further add an inundation model for dike breaches due to dike overtopping and a macroscale economic approach to
assess the flood damage. The flexible approach to model the effects of measures by means of volume storage functions allows
for rapid assessment of combinations of retention measures of various proposed dimensions and at multiple locations. The method
allows for the comparison of the flood risk at the scale of the main river trajectory, which has not been possible for the
Elbe River to date. The model is applied to a series of exemplary flood risk mitigation measures to show the downstream effects
and the additive effects of combinations of measures on the flood risk along the river. We further demonstrate the increase
in the downstream flood risk resulting from unilateral decisions to increase the dike height at upstream locations. As expected,
the results underline the potential effectiveness of increased retention along the river. The effects of controlled retention
at the most upstream possible location and largest possible extent generate the most pronounced reduction of average annual
damage. As expected, the effect of uncontrolled retention with dike relocations is significantly lower. 相似文献
152.
In the Netherlands the current dike design policy is to design flood defence structures corresponding to an agreed flooding
probability with an extra safety board of at least 0.5 m. For river dikes a return period of 1,250 years is used to determine
the design water levels. A problem with this strategy is that it builds on assumptions with regard to the intrinsically uncertain
probability distributions for the peak discharges. The uncertainty is considerable and due to (1) the measuring records that
are limited to about 100 years and (2) the changing natural variability as a result of climate change. Although the probability
distributions are regularly updated based on new discharge data the nature of the statistics is such that a change in the
natural variability of the peak discharge affects the probability distribution only long after the actual change has happened.
Here we compare the performance of the probabilistic dike design strategy with the older strategy, referred to as the ‘self-learning
dike’. The basic principle of the latter strategy is that the dike height is kept at a level equal to the highest recorded
water level plus a certain safety margin. The two flood prevention strategies are compared on the basis of the flooding safety
over a 100-year period. The Rhine gauge station at Lobith serves as case study. The results indicate that the self-learning
dike performs better than the probabilistic design in terms of safety and costs, both under current and climate change conditions. 相似文献