Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate

The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches +?2.0/2.4°C in winter and +?3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating.     

A Mercury orientation model including non-zero obliquity and librations

Planetary orientation models describe the orientation of the spin axis and prime meridian of planets in inertial space as a function of time. The models are required for the planning and execution of Earth-based or space-based observational work, e.g. to compute viewing geometries and to tie observations to planetary coordinate systems. The current orientation model for Mercury is inadequate because it uses an obsolete spin orientation, neglects oscillations in the spin rate called longitude librations, and relies on a prime meridian that no longer reflects its intended dynamical significance. These effects result in positional errors on the surface of ~1.5 km in latitude and up to several km in longitude, about two orders of magnitude larger than the finest image resolution currently attainable. Here we present an updated orientation model which incorporates modern values of the spin orientation, includes a formulation for longitude librations, and restores the dynamical significance to the prime meridian. We also use modern values of the orbit normal, spin axis orientation, and precession rates to quantify an important relationship between the obliquity and moment of inertia differences.     

Structure of Réunion Island (Indian Ocean) inferred from the interpretation of gravity anomalies

Réunion is a volcanic edifice whose origin is related to a hot spot in the Indian Ocean. Only 3% of its volume is emergent. Many geological and geophysical studies were carried out on Réunion Island during the 1980's but few of them allow study of the internal structure of the edifice. Several gravity surveys have been carried out on the island since 1976 and we have compiled the available data set. The lack of data on the western side of the island led us to conduct a regional survey in 1993 to obtain a more homogeneous distribution of the stations. Computation of Bouguer anomalies for different correction densities accounts for the variable density of the rocks constituting the edifice and provides a distribution of gravity anomalies interpreted as dense bodies of intrusive rocks inside the edifice. Two very large intrusive complexes can be unambiguously recognised: one beneath Piton des Neiges and one beneath the Grand Brûlé area. Both have been penetrated by geothermal exploration drill holes and the first is also known from outcrop observations. 2.5D simple models were constructed to reveal the geometry and extent of the buried intrusives. They are deeply rooted, extending several kilometres below sea level, and extensive (20–25 km long and 10–13 km wide for the Piton des Neiges complex, 12–15 km long and some kilometres wide for the Grand Brûlé complex). The development of such complexes implies that the activity of the two volcanic centres was long lasting and remained stable while the volcanoes were growing. The Grand Brûlé complex has been interpreted as relics of an old volcano named Alizés Volcano. The interpretation of the gravity maps suggests the presence of a ridge of dense rocks to the North of the axis joining the centres of Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes. By analogy with the other structures, 2.5D models show that this structure would culminate between 0 and 1 km below sea level and be 15 km wide. This complex induces a maximum anomaly in Takamaka Valley and we thus propose to name it Takamaka Volcano. No geological evidence of the nature of these dense rocks is available but the ridge coincides with structures revealed by magnetic and seismic data. Interpretation of the Bouguer anomaly maps suggests that the inner gravity structure of Piton de la Fournaise is not characterised by the presence of a voluminous dense body but probably by more restricted concentrations of dense rocks. Some structures can be recognised: along the present NE and SE rift zones and in the previous central part of Piton de la Fournaise to the West of the present summit. The recent eastward migration of the centre of activity of Piton de la Fournaise accounts for the lack of a large positive anomaly beneath the active craters.     

Stable isotope contents of porewater in a claystone formation (Tournemire, France): assessment of the extraction technique and preliminary results

Claystones are one of the types of geological formations that are considered for the isolation of radioactive wastes. The study of water transfer through these rocks comes up against a lot of difficulties. Among them is the problem of extracting representative samples of interstitial water from indurated claystones with very low water contents (usually less than 10% vol.). The vacuum distillation technique considered here for samples from the Tournemire site (Toarcian argillite formation), is one of the few usable techniques to extract water from this type of rock in order to perform stable isotope investigations on porewater. Tests have shown that the isotope water content is not only influenced by the yield of extraction and the temperature of distillation (as already known), but also by the rain size and the contact time between the crushed sample and the atmosphere. This affects particularly¹⁸O data.The first isotopic results on the Tournemire claystones suggest a meteoric origin for its interstitial water. Data show a depletion in heavy isotopes with respect to present day meteoric water, that could suggest a recharge under climatic conditions cooler than at present. A clear link appears between the isotope contents of water and the structural context: interstitial waters of rock samples taken in the fractured zone of the massif seem to have been affected by a secondary process (evaporation or water-rock exchange) leading to the enrichment in heavy isotopes.     

Sigmoidal particle density distribution in a subplinian scoria fall deposit

A general expression to describe particle density distribution in tephra fall deposits is essential to improve fallout tephra mass determination and numerical modelling of tephra dispersion. To obtain particle density distributions in tephra fall deposits, we performed high-resolution componentry and particle density analyses on samples from the 2006 subplinian eruption of Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador. Six componentry classes, including pumice and scoria, have been identified in our sample collection. We determined the class of 300 clasts in each 0.5? fractions from ?4.5? to 3.5? and carried out water pycnometry density measurements on selected size fractions. Results indicate that the mean particle density increases with ? up to a plateau of ~2.6?g/cm³ for clasts finer than 1.5?. The density of scoria and pumice increases between ?3 and 1?, while dense particle density is sub-constant with grainsize. We show that the mean particle density ?? of the vesicular fractions is a function of grainsize i (? scale) given by a sigmoidal law: $ \mu (i)={{{K+\beta }} \left/ {{\left( {1+\alpha {e^{-ri }}} \right)}} \right.} $ , where K, ??, ?? and r are constants. These sigmoidal distributions can be used to determine accurately the load of each componentry class and should be applicable to many tephra deposits and for modelling purposes.     

Deep sea in situ excess pore pressure and sediment deformation off NW Sumatra and its relation with the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

The swath bathymetric data acquired during the “Sumatra Aftershocks” cruise from the Sunda trench in the Indian Ocean to the north of the Sumatra Island imaged several scars and deposits. In situ pore pressure measurements using the Ifremer piezometer and coring demonstrate that high excess pore pressure and sediment deformation was generated by a recent event in the scar of the slope failure zone identified by J.T. Henstock and co-authors. This excess pore pressure is localized in the upper sedimentary layers and is not related to an interplate subduction process. Numerical simulations of the hydrological system that take into account the hydro-mechanical properties of the upper sediment layer show that the excess pore pressure and sediment deformations could be generated at the time of the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra Earthquake. The Sumatra Aftershocks team: J.-C. Sibuet, S. Singh, R. Apprioual, N.C. Aryanto, J. Begot, A. Cattaneo, A.P.S. Chauchan, R. Creach, J. Crozon, A. Domzig, N. Falleau, D. Graindorge, F. Harmegnies, Y. Haryadi, F. Klingelhoffer, S.K. Kolluru, J.-Y. Landuré, C. Le Lann, J. Malod, A. Normand, G. Oggian, C. Rangin, D. Restunin Galih, J.-L. Schneider, N. Sultan, M. Taufik, M. Umber and H. Yamaguchi.     

From marginal to conditional probability functions of parameters in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model: an event-based approach

ABSTRACT

A parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events.     

Influence of instruments on the H/V spectral ratios of ambient vibrations

For an optimal analysis of the H/V curve, it appears necessary to check the instrument signal to noise ratio in the studied frequency band, to ensure that the signal from the ground noise is well above the internal noise. We assess the reliability and accuracy of various digitizers, sensors and/or digitizer-sensor couples. Although this study is of general interest for any kind of seismological study, we emphasize the influence of equipment on H/V analysis results. To display the impact of the instrumental part on the H/V behavior, some series of tests have been carried out following a step-by-step procedure: first, the digitizers have been tested in the lab (sensitivity, internal noise...), then the three components sensors, still in the lab, and finally the usual user digitizers-sensors couple in lab and outdoors. In general, the digitizer characteristics, verified during this test, correspond well to the manufacturer specifications, however, depending on the digitizer, the quality of the digitized waveform can be very good to very poor, with variation from a channel to another channel (gain, time difference etc.). It appears very clearly that digitizers need a warming up time before the recording to avoid problems in the low-frequency range. Regarding the sensors, we recommend strongly to avoid the use of “classical” accelerometers (i.e., usual force balance technology). The majority of tested seismometers (broadband and short period, even 4.5 Hz) can be used without problems from 0.4 to 25 Hz. In all cases, the instrumentation should be checked first to verify that it works well for the defined study aim, but also to define its limit of use (frequency, sensitivity...).