An Approximation of Inner Boundary Conditions for Wells Intersecting Highly Conductive Structures

Inner boundary conditions describe the interaction of groundwater wells with the surrounding aquifer during pumping and are associated with well-skin damage that limits water production and water derived from wellbore storage. Pumping test evaluations of wells during immediate and early time flow require assignment of inner boundary conditions. Originally, these concepts were developed for vertical well screens, and later transferred to wellbores intersecting highly conductive structures, such as preferential flow zones in fractured and karstic systems. Conceptual models for pumping test analysis in complex bedrock geology are often simplified. Classic analytical solutions generally lump or ignore conditions that limit or enhance well productivity along the well screen at the onset of pumping. Numerical solutions can represent well drawdowns in complex geological settings, such as karst systems, more precisely than many analytical solutions by accounting for additional physical processes and avoiding assumptions and simplifications. Suitable numerical tools for flow simulations in karst are discrete pipe-continuum models that account for various physical processes such as the transient hydraulics of wellbores intersecting highly conductive structures during pumping.     

Application of periodic autoregressive process to the modeling of the Garonne river flows

Accurate forecasting of river flows is one of the most important applications in hydrology, especially for the management of reservoir systems. To capture the seasonal variations in river flow statistics, this paper develops a robust modeling approach to identify and to estimate periodic autoregressive (PAR) model in the presence of additive outliers. Since the least squares estimators are not robust in the presence of outliers, we suggest a robust estimation based on residual autocovariances. A genetic algorithm with Bayes information criterion is used to identify the optimal PAR model. The method is applied to average monthly and quarter-monthly flow data (1959–2010) for the Garonne river in the southwest of France. Results show that the accuracy of forecasts is improved in the robust model with respect to the unrobust model for the quarter-monthly flows. By reducing the number of parameters to be estimated, the principle of parsimony favors the choice of the robust approach.     

Automatic detection of P- and S-wave arrival times: new strategies based on the modified fractal method and basic matching pursuit

In this work, new strategies for automatic identification of P- and S-wave arrival times from digital recorded local seismograms are proposed and analyzed. The database of arrival times previously identified by a human reader was compared with automatic identification techniques based on the Fourier transformation in reduced time (spectrograms), fractal analysis, and the basic matching pursuit algorithm. The first two techniques were used to identify the P-wave arrival times, while the third was used for the identification of the S-wave. For validation, the results were compared with the short-time average over long-time average (STA/LTA) of Rietbrock et al., Geophys Res Lett 39(8), (2012) for the database of aftershocks of the 2010 Maule M _w = 8.8 earthquake. The identifiers proposed in this work exhibit good results that outperform the STA/LTA identifier in many scenarios. The average difference from the reference picks (times obtained by the human reader) in P- and S-wave arrival times is ～ 1 s.     

Impact of vertical structure on water mass circulation in a tropical lagoon (Ebrié, Ivory Coast)

A one-dimensional vertical model has been developed to simulate the water mass circulation along the vertical structure in all deep coastal areas. The model has hydrodynamic and transport components solved using finite difference scheme. The one-dimensional vertical model results are coupled to the vertically averaged two-dimensional model results at each point of a horizontal grid. A theoretical salinity profile is introduced for each vertically integrated value obtained from the 2DH model results. A viscosity profile, simulating a viscosity value close to zero at the surface and with large viscosity gradients, is applied along the water column. The model is applied to the Vridi channel, connecting the Ebrié lagoon to the sea (Ivory Coast).The response of the Ebrié lagoon is studied in terms of inflow and outflow of water in the system through the Vridi channel. Due to the abrupt variation of the surface slope, vertical velocities along the water column show an anticlockwise spiral from bottom to surface during a tidal cycle. Due to the bottom friction and to the vertical viscosity profile, velocities decrease from surface to bottom. However, the freshwater inflow slows down the tidal propagation during the flood and causes the surface velocity to be smaller than the bottom velocity at mid-tide. Close to the bottom, velocities follow an anticlockwise movement due to the tidal propagation. At the water surface, velocities follow only an alternative movement of either ebb or flood, along the channel direction. No cross shore velocities can develop at the surface in the channel.     

From oblique subduction to intra-continental transpression: Structures of the southern Kermadec-Hikurangi margin from multibeam bathymetry,side-scan sonar and seismic reflection

The southern Kermadec-Hikurangi convergent margin, east of New Zealand, accommodates the oblique subduction of the oceanic Hikurangi Plateau at rates of 4–5 cm/yr. Swath bathymetry and sidescan data, together with seismic reflection and geopotential data obtained during the GEODYNZ-SUD cruise, showed major changes in tectonic style along the margin. The changes reflect the size and abundance of seamounts on the subducting plateau, the presence and thickness of trench-fill turbidites, and the change to increasing obliquity and intracontinental transpression towards the south. In this paper, we provide evidence that faulting with a significant strike-slip component is widespread along the entire 1000 km margin. Subduction of the northeastern scrap of the Hikurangi Plateau is marked by an offset in the Kermadec Trench and adjacent margin, and by a major NW-trending tear fault in the scarp. To the south, the southern Kermadec Trench is devoid of turbidite fill and the adjacent margin is characterized by an up to 1200 m high scarp that locally separates apparent clockwise rotated blocks on the upper slope from strike-slip faults and mass wasting on the lower slope. The northern Hikurangi Trough has at least 1 km of trench-fill but its adjacent margin is characterized by tectonic erosion. The toe of the margin is indented by 10–25 km for more than 200 km, and this is inferred to be the result of repeated impacts of the large seamounts that are abundant on the northern Hikurangi Plateau. The two most recent impacts have left major indentations in the margin. The central Hikurangi margin is characterized by development of a wide accretionary wedge on the lower slope, and by transpression of presubduction passive margin sediments on the upper slope. Shortening across the wedge together with a component of strike-slip motion on the upper slope supports an interpretation of some strain partitioning. The southern Hikurangi margin is a narrow, mainly compressive belt along a very oblique, apparently locked subduction zone.     

Ethnic groups’ response to the 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia

The 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami unfairly hit the different ethnic groups of Aceh, Indonesia. About 170,000 Acehnese and Minangkabau people died in the Northern tip of Sumatra while only 44 Simeulue people passed away in the neighbouring Simeulue island located near the earthquake epicentre. Such a difference in the death toll does not lie in the nature of the hazard but in different human behaviours and ethnic contexts. The present study draws on a contextual framework of analysis where people’s behaviour in the face of natural hazards is deeply influenced by the cultural, social, economic and political context. Questionnaire-based surveys among affected communities, key informant interviews and literature reviews show that the people of Simeulue detected the tsunami very early and then escaped to the mountains. On the other hand, Acehnese and Minangkabau people, respectively in the cities of Banda Aceh and Meulaboh, did not anticipate the phenomenon and were thus caught by the waves. The different behaviours of the victims have been commanded by the existence or the absence of a disaster subculture among affected communities as well as by their capacity to protect themselves in facing the tsunami. People’s behaviours and the capacity to protect oneself can be further tracked down to a deep tangle of intricate factors which include the armed conflict that has been affecting the province since the 1970s, the historical and cultural heritage and the national political economy system. This paper finally argues that the uneven impact of the 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Aceh lies in the different daily life conditions of the ethnic groups struck by the disaster.     

Multifractal analysis of three large earthquakes in Chile: Antofagasta 1995, Valparaiso 1985, and Maule 2010

A multifractal analysis of seismicity of three large earthquakes in Chile is made: the Central Zone 1985 (M _W = 8.0), Antofagasta 1995 (M _W = 8.1), and Maule 2010 (M _W = 8.8) earthquakes. The analysis shows that the fractal dimension spectrum D _q decreases with time before an earthquake. This fact suggests that the spatial distribution of seismic events could form a cluster before a main shock.