Dealing with uncertainty in risk assessments in early stages of a CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage project: comparison of pure-probabilistic and fuzzy-probabilistic frameworks

CO₂ capture and storage is recognized as a promising solution among others to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. This technology requires robust risk assessment and management from the early stages of the project (i.e. during the site selection phase, prior to injection), which is a challenging task due to the high level of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. This paper aims at implementing and comparing two frameworks for dealing with uncertainties: a classical probabilistic framework and a probabilistic-fuzzy-based (i.e. jointly combining fuzzy sets and probabilities) one. The comparison of both frameworks is illustrated for assessing the risk related to leakage of brine through an abandoned well on a realistic site in the Paris basin (France). For brine leakage flow computation, a semi-analytical model, requiring 25 input parameters, is used. Depending on the framework, available data is represented in a different manner (either using classical probability laws or interval-valued tools). Though the fuzzy-probabilistic framework for uncertainty propagation is computationally more expensive, it presents the major advantage to highlight situations of high degree of epistemic uncertainty: this enables nuancing a too-optimistic decision-making only supported by a single probabilistic curve (i.e. using the Monte-Carlo results). On this basis, we demonstrate how fuzzy-based sensitivity analysis can help identifying how to reduce the imprecision in an effective way, which has useful applications for additional studies. This study highlights the importance of choices in the mathematical tools for representing the lack of knowledge especially in the early phases of the project, where data is scarce, incomplete and imprecise.     

The Disruption Index (DI) as a tool to measure disaster mitigation strategies

Apart from the loss of lives, injuries and homeless resulting from an earthquake, not only the economy and physical landscape are altered, but also the lives of citizens and their places of work are dramatically altered. If critical services and functions are disrupted for more than a reasonable time period, consequences can be severe. All communities are at risk and face potential disaster, if unprepared. The Disruption Index (DI) is a tool that allows the representation of a complex and multidimensional situation in a concise and easier way, providing institutions and communities with a way to identify the global earthquake impact in a geographical area, the elements at risk, and the means to reduce it. In the present paper, after a short review of the concept of DI, its geographic (spatial) distribution is developed and an application to some cities in Algarve (Portugal) is made. Then, the use of DI in the context of measuring the risk reduction for alternative disaster mitigation strategies is introduced and illustrations are presented.     

QuakeIST<Superscript>®</Superscript> earthquake scenario simulator using interdependencies

Earthquakes are a permanent threat to urban environments worldwide. The communication of the related risk demands accurate damage model simulations and an interactive visualization of results. The aim of this paper is to provide a realistic problem-solving environment for earthquake discussions among decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public. QuakeIST^® is an integrated earthquake simulator developed by Instituto Superior Técnico (Lisbon University), oriented towards the performance of risk calculations concerning damage propagations that use the Disruption Index concept. This software imports data stored in a GIS environment, handles different ground motion scenarios, and deals with a complex situation of different soils and vulnerabilities of various layers of civil structures (buildings, lifelines, and other urban structures). It models interdependencies between several infrastructures and between infrastructures and the urban tissue. The computer programme is very versatile, written in separate modules, allowing an experimented user to incorporate new formulations. Results can be treated with any statistical application and most common GIS commercial environments can produced their geographic visualization. Current progress and new upcoming are briefly described at the end of the paper.     

Peat Accretion Histories During the Past 6,000 Years in Marshes of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta,CA, USA

The purpose of this study was to determine how vertical accretion rates in marshes vary through the millennia. Peat cores were collected in remnant and drained marshes in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta of California. Cubic smooth spline regression models were used to construct age–depth models and accretion histories for three remnant marshes. Estimated vertical accretion rates at these sites range from 0.03 to 0.49 cm year⁻¹. The mean contribution of organic matter to soil volume at the remnant marsh sites is generally stable (4.73% to 6.94%), whereas the mean contribution of inorganic matter to soil volume has greater temporal variability (1.40% to 7.92%). The hydrogeomorphic position of each marsh largely determines the inorganic content of peat. Currently, the remnant marshes are keeping pace with sea level rise, but this balance may shift for at least one of the sites under future sea level rise scenarios.     

Earth science test suites to evaluate grid tools and middleware—examples for grid data access tools

The Earth Science (ES) community has three major IT related concerns: Modeling (computing intensive), exploitation of datasets, and production of large shared datasets. All could be accomplishable using Grid. Different Grid middleware solutions exist and are being developed. In DEGREE (Dissemination and Exploitation of Grids in Earth sciencE) the aim was to disseminate and promote uptake of Grid in ES and to create a bridge between ES and Grid communities. DEGREE identified key ES requirements and has disseminated these to Grid projects, evaluated Grid middleware tools and standards regarding ES requirements and provided feedback to Grid developers. In order to convey requirements to the Grid community, test suite specifications were developed. Test suites provide real applications for testing functional and non-functional aspects of Grid, contrary to typical whiteboard tests or use cases. In this paper the GOMEVAL test suite is explained in detail and the results obtained are discussed.     

Surface-Based 3D Modeling of Geological Structures

Building a 3D geological model from field and subsurface data is a typical task in geological studies involving natural resource evaluation and hazard assessment. However, there is quite often a gap between research papers presenting case studies or specific innovations in 3D modeling and the objectives of a typical class in 3D structural modeling, as more and more is implemented at universities. In this paper, we present general procedures and guidelines to effectively build a structural model made of faults and horizons from typical sparse data. Then we describe a typical 3D structural modeling workflow based on triangulated surfaces. Our goal is not to replace software user guides, but to provide key concepts, principles, and procedures to be applied during geomodeling tasks, with a specific focus on quality control.     

The Enya mounds: a lost mound-drift competition

The genesis and evolution of cold-water coral banks along the Northeastern Atlantic margin is known to be influenced by several factors, among which the palaeotopography and nature of the coral settling surface, the presence of bottom currents and sediment supply. In this paper, a case study is presented of the Enya mound cluster, located in the southernmost tip of the Belgica mound province, west of Ireland. Below this mound cluster, seismic stratigraphy revealed a yet unmapped local unconformity RD1b, being part of a composite erosion event (RD1). As such, from the Late Miocene to Late Pliocene, at least two erosional events have incised the margin, ending with the final RD1a “moundbase” unconformity, acting as a base for the Enya mounds. During the Quaternary the mounds became outgrown and were covered by a mounded contourite drift. In addition, they are closely associated with a cluster of seabed pockmarks. The bottom current regime which became active since the Middle Pleistocene has certainly influenced the fate of this mound cluster. The occurrence of the pockmarks seems to be related to relatively recent fluid migration processes, however leaving an open question if any previous seepage phases were involved in the growth or initiation of the coral banks.     

Triassic <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar ages from the Sakaigawa unit,Kii Peninsula,Japan: implications for possible merger of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt with large-scale tectonic systems of the East Asian margin

The 218.4 ± 0.4, 228.8 ± 0.9 and 231.9 ± 0.7 Ma ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar laser probe pseudo-plateau ages (2σ; 49–63% ³⁹Ar-release) of very low-grade meta-pelitic whole-rocks from the Sakaigawa unit date high-P/T metamorphism. We argue that this event occurred in a subduction–accretion complex, not along the East Asian continental margin, but on the Pacific side of the proto-Japan superterrane. Proto-Japan was a Permian magmatic arc, presently dispersed in the Japanese islands, which also contained older subduction–accretion complexes. The arc system was fringing but not yet part of the Eurasian continent. The Middle to Late Triassic high-P/T tectono-metamorphic event was partly coeval with proto-Japan’s collision with proto-Eurasia along the southward extension of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, causing the main metamorphism in the Hida-Oki terrane. It is possible that this system continued via the Cathaysia block (China) to Indochina. The Late Permian to Middle Triassic Indosinian event might stem from docking of Pacific-derived terranes with Southeast Asia’s continental margin. The concept of the proto-Japan superterrane implies that the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu suture zone joined the Central Asian Orogenic Belt to the east of the North China craton and did not continue to Japan, as commonly assumed.