Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) in Québec: Case Study of the Chaudiére River

This study presents the evolution of agreements between the governments of Canadaand Québec on flood damage reduction. In Québec, the implementation of a regulation about building in floodplains came about in 1983–1984. Today, this regulation takes the form of a policy called ``Policy of shores, littoral and floodplain protection'. Municipalities must adopt rules that concur with the principles of this policy.The Chaudiére River basin was selected for analysis of urban developmentduring the period following the application of building rules in flood-risk areas.Despite the ban on building in the strong current zone (0–20 year return periodflood zone), many buildings, essentially residential, have been erected in thiszone. These new constructions generally account for a low percentage of thetotal property value in the 0–100 year flooding area, but are legal since theyare connected to a water and sewage network that existed prior to the officialfloodplain regulation.Flood damage along the Chaudiére River will tend to increase for two reasons.Firstly, while respecting the policy mentioned above, sites are still available infloodplains for future development. Secondly, no structural flood protection workshave been erected in view of the fact they are only marginally profitable from anbenefit-cost point of view.     

Weather as a Chronic Hazard for Road Transportation in Canadian Cities

Inclement weather creates a chronic hazard for Canadian travellers. Past studies indicate that road collision rates increase during precipitation, although the magnitude of theincrease varies from study to study, partly as a result of variations in weather and driving conditions,but also because of differences in methods. The goal of the current study is to improve ourunderstanding of the links between weather and travel risk in mid-sized Canadian cities by using astandardized method for analyzing data from six cities with different climates: Halifax-Dartmouth,Ottawa, Québec, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, and Regina. The study has four interrelated objectives: (1) Toconduct a sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which risk estimates vary depending onthe criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions; (2) To compare therelative risk of collision and injury during precipitation relative to `normal' conditions; (3) Todetermine the extent to which weather-related risks vary fordifferent Canadian cities; and (4) To explore any differences in collision characteristics between events and controls, especially as theyvary from city to city. Results are based on a matched-pair analysis, using six-hour time blocks over afour-year period, 1995 to 1998. Results indicate only modest sensitivity to the criteria used to define precipitation events and `normal' conditions. On average, precipitation is associated with a 75 percentincrease in traffic collisions and a 45 percent increase in related injuries, as compared to `normal'seasonal conditions, but risk levels vary depending on the characteristics of the weather event.Both sensitivity to specific weather conditions and weather-related accident profiles vary from city tocity in ways that are not easily explained.     

Retrograde fluids in the Archean Shawmere anorthosite, Kapuskasing Structural Zone, Ontario, Canada

The Archean Shawmere anorthosite lies within the granulite facies portion of the Kapuskasing Structural Zone (KSZ), Ontario, and is crosscut by numerous linear alteration veins containing calcite + quartz ± dolomite ± zoisite ± clinozoisite ± margarite ±paragonite ± chlorite. These veins roughly parallel the trend of the Ivanhoe Lake Cataclastic Zone. Equilibria involving clinozoisite + margarite + quartz ± calcite ± plagioclase show that the vein minerals were stable at T < 600 °C, XCO₂ < 0.4 at P ≈ 6 kbar. The stabilities of margarite and paragonite in equilibrium with quartz are also consistent with T < 600 °C and XCO₂ < 0.4 at 6 kbar. Additional assemblages consisting of calcite + clinochlore + quartz + talc + margarite indicate T < 500 °C with XCO₂ > 0.9. Thus, vein formation, while clearly retrograde, spanned a range of temperatures, and fluid compositions evolved from H₂O-rich to CO₂-rich. The calcite in the retrograde veins has δ¹⁸O values that range from 8.4 to 11.2‰ (average = +9.7 ± 0.9‰) and δ¹³C values that range from −3.9 to −1.6‰ (average = −3.1 ± 0.6‰). These values indicate that the fluids from which calcite precipitated underwent extensive exchange with the anorthosite and other crustal lithologies. The fluids may have been initially derived either from devolatilization of metamorphic rocks or crystallization of igneous rocks in the adjacent Abitibi subprovince. Vein quartz contains CO₂-rich fluid inclusions (final melting T = −57.0 to −58.7 °C) that range in size from 5 to 17 μm. Measured homogenization temperatures (T h) range from −44.0 to 14.5 °C, however for most inclusions (46 of S1), T h = −44.0 to −21.1 °C (ρCO₂ ≈ 1.13 to 1.05 g/cm³). At 400 to 600 °C, these densities correspond to pressures of 3.5 to 7 kbar, which is the best estimate of pressures of vein formation. It has been argued that some high density CO₂-rich fluid inclusions found in the KSZ were formed during peak metamorphism and thus document the presence of a CO₂-rich fluid during peak granulite facies metamorphism (Rudnick et al. 1984). The association of high density CO₂-rich fluid inclusions with clearly retrograde veins documents the formation of similar composition and density inclusions after the peak of metamorphism. Thus, the coincidence of entrapment pressures calculated from fluid inclusion density measurements with peak metamorphic pressures alone should not be considered strong evidence for peak metamorphic inclusion entrapment. All fluid inclusion results are consistent with an initially semi-isobaric retrograde P–T path. Received: 2 April 1996 / Accepted: 15 November 1996     

Re-Os Isotopic Measurements at the Femtomole Level in Natural Samples

Here we describe a new chemical separation method for Os and an improved mass spectrometric procedure for Re and Os. This technique is based on the selective extraction of OsO₄ from aqueous solution in liquid bromine. Among other advantages, this procedure avoids the cumbersome distillation procedure for Os and uses only commercial "off the shelf" PFA teflon labware. Blank levels for 0.5 g sample sizes are: 0.06 pg and 0.5 pg for Os and Re respectively. Samples containing as little as 1 pg g⁻¹ Os can be analysed reliably with this method. Adaptation to other dissolution methods is also discussed.     

Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between C and Be records

For about the last 30 years it has been recognized that the high frequency component of the tree rings ¹⁴C/¹²C record is dominated by the modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar wind. In particular, it has been demonstrated that the three most recent periods of low sunspot occurrence were characterized by high values of atmospheric ¹⁴C/¹²C. During the last millennium other periods of high ¹⁴C/¹²C values were observed but their solar origin is still debatable. In the present work we compare these fluctuations with an independent record of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be measured in ice from the South Pole to check the solar origin of the observed ¹⁴C/¹²C variations. In order to compare quantitatively the results obtained on ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C, it is necessary to take into account the different behaviour of these two cosmogenic isotopes, and especially the damping effect of the carbon cycle in the case of ¹⁴C. As an input to a 12-box numerical model we used the relative fluctuations of the ¹⁰Be concentrations record measured in South Pole ice and converted it into a synthetic ¹⁴C record. We took into account the fact that ¹⁰Be modulation is enhanced in polar regions due to the orientation of the geomagnetic field. As expected, the fluctuations of the modelled ¹⁴C record are much smaller (a factor of 20) than those observed for the raw ¹⁰Be record. In addition, the variations are smoother and shifted in time by a few decades. The ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C variations closely resemble the ¹⁴C measurements obtained on tree rings (R = 0.81). In particular, it is easy to identify periods of maximal ¹⁴C/¹²C which correspond to solar activity minima centred at about 1060, 1320 (Wolf), 1500 (Spörer), 1690 (Maunder) and 1820 (Dalton) yr A.D. Cross-correlation calculations suggest that there is no significant lag between the ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C and the tree-ring ¹⁴C records. Our study strongly suggests the dominance of the solar modulation on the cosmonuclide production variations during the last millennium.     

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO₂ fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO₂ fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO₂-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.     

Tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt, southeastern Australia: constraints from coupled numerical models of crustal deformation and surface erosion driven by subduction of the underlying mantle

We have used a coupled thermo-mechanical finite-element (FE) model of crustal deformation driven by mantle/oceanic subduction to demonstrate that the tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt (LFB) during the Mid-Palaeozoic (Late Ordovician to Early Carboniferous) can be linked to continuous subduction along a single subduction zone. This contrasts with most models proposed to date which assume that separate subduction zones were active beneath the western, central and eastern sections of the Lachlan Orogen. We demonstrate how the existing data on the structural, volcanic and erosional evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt can be accounted for by our model. We focus particularly on the timing of fault movement in the various sectors of the orogen. We demonstrate that the presence of the weak basal decollement on which most of the Lachlan Fold Belt is constructed effectively decouples crustal structures from those in the underlying mantle. The patterns of faulting in the upper crust appears therefore to be controlled by lateral strength contrasts inherited from previous orogenic events rather than the location of one or several subduction zones. The model also predicts that the uplift and deep exhumation of the Wagga-Omeo Metamorphic Belt (WOMB) is associated with the advection of this terrane above the subduction point and is the only tectonic event that gives us direct constraints on the location of the subduction zone. We also discuss the implications of our model for the nature of the basement underlying the present-day orogen.     

Geological controls on rock mass classification of coal from Huntly East Mine, New Zealand

Rock Mass Rating (RMR) measurements from 65 sites within Huntly East underground coal mine are presented. All measurements are in coal, for which the dominant discontinuities are vertical cleat. Basic RMR values using two discontinuity spacings are presented: overall RMR based on the average spacing of all individual discontinuities; and cleat zone RMR based on the average spacing between zones of cleat. Cleat orientations are highly variable, but on average approximately parallel horizontal stress axes (face cleat follows maximum horizontal stress axis, butt cleat follows minimum horizontal stress axis).Contours of RMR variations throughout the mine are used to compare rock mass conditions with geological structure. It is apparent that: (1) RMR is least within downthrown fault blocks, and particularly immediately on the downthrown sides of faults, and greatest in upthrown fault blocks; and (2) RMR contours parallel horizontal stress axes within fault-bounded blocks, and bend to parallel faults at block boundaries. From similar contours for parameters contributing to RMR, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD), groundwater rating, and discontinuity condition rating create most of the observed variations in RMR. RQD is determined from the measured discontinuity frequency and hence is a measure of the degree of fracturing of the rock mass. This is interpreted as influencing the groundwater and condition parameters directly by allowing greater water ingress. Discontinuity frequency is greatest (least spacing) in the immediate vicinity of faults, and in downthrown fault blocks, generating low RMR values. Within fault blocks RQD varies little, so RMR contours align with cleat orientations.As RMR contours, faults, stress field and cleat orientation are clearly interrelated, there is unequivocally a connection between RMR and structural geology; this allows some predictive capacity in terms of ground conditions. If geological features can be accurately defined through either drilling programs or seismic surveys, then ground conditions may be predicted before panels are driven.     

A Reflection on Mg, Cd, Ca, Li and Si Isotopic Measurements and Related Reference Materials

This contribution aims to report the reflections we had with the scientific community during two international workshops on reference materials for stable isotopes in Davos (2002) and Nice (2003). After evaluating the isotopic homogeneity of some existing reference materials, based on either certificates, literature data or specific inter-laboratory rounds, we confirm these as primary reference materials or propose new ones relative to which stable isotope compositions should be reported. We propose DSM-3 for Mg, NIST SRM 915a for Ca, L-SVEC for Li and NBS28 for Si. Cadmium does not yet have a well identified delta zero material, although three commercial mono-elemental Cd solutions have yielded the same isotopic composition relative to one another. In order to scale the linearity of any mass spectrometer, some secondary reference materials are also proposed: Cambridge-1 solution for Mg, the "Münster-Cd" and JEPPIM Cd solutions for Cd and the "Big Batch" silicate for Si. The team from Nancy propose to prepare a mixed spike solution for Li isotopes. Well-characterised natural samples such as ocean or continental waters, diatoms, sponges, rocks and minerals are needed to validate the entire analytical procedure, particularly to take into account the effect of sample mineralisation and of chemical manipulations for elemental separation prior to analysis.