Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration of paired watersheds: Utility of moving sums in presence of externalities

Historically, paired watershed studies have been used to quantify the hydrological effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring 2 similar watersheds during calibration (pretreatment) and post‐treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control–treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation were most stable to minimize regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds were 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old intensely managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, 1 watershed of 3–4‐year‐old loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), 1 watershed of 14–15‐year‐old thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and 1 watershed of switchgrass only. The study period spanned from 2009 to 2012. Silvicultural operational practices during this period acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. MOSUM results indicated significant changes in regression parameters due to silvicultural operations and were used to identify stable relationships for water table elevation. None of the calibration relationships developed using this method were significantly different from the classical calibration relationship based on published historical data. We attribute that to the similarity of historical and 2010–2012 leaf area index on control and treatment watersheds as moderated by the emergent vegetation. Although the MOSUM approach does not eliminate the need for true calibration data or replace the classic paired watershed approach, our results show that it may be an effective alternative approach when true data are unavailable, as it minimizes the impacts of external disturbances other than the treatment of interest.     

Floods and livelihoods: The impact of changing water resources on wetland agro-ecological production systems in the Tana River Delta,Kenya

Wetlands are highly dynamic and productive systems that have been under increased pressure from changes in land use and water management strategies. In Eastern Africa, wetlands provide resources at multiple spatial and temporal levels through farming, fishing, livestock ownership and a host of other ecosystem services that sustain the local economy and individual livelihoods. As part of a broader effort to describe future development scenarios for East African coastal wetlands, this qualitative study focuses on understanding the processes by which river water depletion has affected local food production systems in Kenya's Tana River Delta over the past 50 years, and how this situation has impacted residents’ livelihoods and well-being. Interviews performed in six villages among various ethnic groups, geographical locations and resource profiles indicated that the agro-ecological production systems formerly in place were adapted to the river's dynamic flooding patterns. As these flooding patterns changed, the local population diversified and abandoned or adopted various farming, fishing and livestock-rearing techniques. Despite these efforts, the decrease in water availability affected each subcomponent of the production systems under study, which led to their collapse in the 1990s. Water depletion negatively impacted local human well-being through the loss of food security. The current study provides a detailed account of the dynamics of agro-ecological production systems facing the effects of river water depletion in a wetland-associated environment in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Validation of MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields for monitoring deforestation and forest degradation: two cases in Mexico

This study assesses whether MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields percent tree cover (PTC) data can detect deforestation and forest degradation. To assess the usefulness of PTC for detecting deforestation, we used a data set consisting of eight forest and seven non-forest categories. To evaluate forest degradation, we used data from two temperate forest types in three conservation states: primary (dense), secondary (moderately degraded) and open (heavily degraded) forest. Our results show that PTC can differentiate temperate forest from non-forest categories (p = 0.05) and thus suggests PTC can adequately detect deforestation in temperate forests. In contrast, single-date PTC data does not appear to be adequate to detect forest degradation in temperate forests. As for tropical forest, PTC can partially discriminate between forest and non-forest categories.     

A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.     

Reefs at the edge: coral community structure around Rapa,southernmost French Polynesia

Rapa (27°36′ S, 144°20′ W) is a small (~40 km²) volcanic island isolated in the Southern Austral Archipelago, where direct anthropogenic stressors are extremely limited. Here, we present the results of the first quantitative survey of coral community structure across habitats and depths around the island. Despite its geographical isolation in the depauperate South Central Pacific, its small size and unfavourable environmental conditions (competition with macroalgae, low sea surface temperatures, reduced reef accretion), the diversity of scleractinian corals at Rapa is particularly high (112 species from 32 genera, including 37 species of Acropora) in comparison to other French Polynesian islands and subtropical Pacific locations. Our results indicate that the abundance (>100 colonies per 10 m² recorded at nine of the 17 sampling stations) and cover (>40% at four stations) of corals are relatively high for a marginal reef location. Strong spatial heterogeneity was found, with high variation in diversity, abundance, cover and community composition among stations. Variation in community composition was related to habitat types, with distinct assemblages among fringing reefs within bays, reef formations at bay entrances, and those on the submerged platform surrounding the island. On the platform, a depth gradient was detected, with generic richness, abundance and cover generally greater at deeper stations (18–20 m depth) compared with medium‐depth (10–12 m) and shallow (1–3 m) stations. A gradient was also recorded along bays, with increasing coral diversity and abundance from the bay heads to the bay entrances. The coral community at Rapa was characterized by the presence of several taxa not found in other French Polynesian archipelagos and the rarity of others that are common and abundant in the Society and the Tuamotu islands. Another distinctive feature of reef communities at Rapa is the high cover and dominance of macroalgae, particularly in the shallower parts of the surrounding platform, which probably explains the lower densities of coral colonies recorded there. These characteristics of the diversity and biogeographical composition of coral assemblages at Rapa provide considerable ecological grounds for its conservation.