Where the buffalo roam: Boundaries and the politics of scale in the yellowstone region

For more than twenty years, the state of Montana has pursued a controversial policy of lethal control to manage winter migrations of bison from Yellowstone National Park. In the late 1990s, as the state and a number of federal agencies attempted to cooperatively outline a more palatable scenario for bison management, local environmental groups became active participants in the debate. This paper examines the strategies pursued by these organizations in the course of their attempt to construct a new, ecosystem-level territorial space and jurisdictional scale for bison, and places their struggle within the context of existing work in geography on the politics of scale. Ultimately, the failure of their efforts illustrates some of the important constraints faced by social groups that attempt to create new territorial regimes and new scales of resistance in the interstices of existing political structures.     

Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

Deterministic sensitivity analysis for a model for flow in porous media

A deterministic method for sensitivity analysis is developed and applied to a mathematical model for the simulation of flow in porous media. The method is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix of the model. It is a local approach to sensitivity analysis providing a hierarchical classification of the directions in both the input space and of those in the output space reflecting the degree of sensitiveness of the latter to the former. Its low computational cost, in comparison with that of statistical approaches, allows the study of the variability of the results of the sensitivity analysis due to the variations of the input parameters of the model, and thus it can provide a quality criterion for the validity of more classical probabilistic global approaches. For the example treated here, however, this variability is weak, and deterministic and statistical methods yield similar sensitivity results.     

Bioaccumulation et elimination du 65Zn par Gammarus aequicauda martimov

Uptake of ⁶⁵Zn by Gammarus aequicauda results in a concentration factor of approximately 50 and it is characterised by a maximal accumulation level attained as early as the third day of the experiment. After ingestion by the gammarids of twenty contaminated meals which are distributed over a 45-day period, a transfer of ⁶⁵Zn between the food and the consumer can be observed but there is no sign of the biomagnification phenomenon. The retention rate of the radionuclide is only about 1·5% and the ⁶⁵Zn concentration in the gammarids remains markedly inferior to that of the ingested food.The elimination of the ⁶⁵Zn fixed directly from water takes place according to an exponential model which corresponds to the existence of three biological half-lives of the radionuclide, $\text{Tb}{}_1\text{? 0·5 day, Tb}{}_2\text{? 3·5 days and Tb}{}_3\text{? days}$. The excretion of ⁶⁵Zn accumulated from food is a simple exponential phenomenon which corresponds to only one biological half-life of approximately 17 days.     

The December 4, 1983 to February 18, 1984 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion, Indian Ocean): Description and interpretation

On December 4, 1983 an eruption started at vents located 1.5 km southwest of the summit of Piton de la Fournaise at the base of the central cone. After 31 months of quiescence this was one of the longest repose period in the last fifty years. The eruption had two phases: December 4 to January 18 and January 18 to February 18. Phase 1 produced about 8 × 10⁶ m³ of lava and Phase II about 9 × 10⁶ m³. The erupted lava is an aphyric basalt whose mineralogical and geochemical composition is close to that of other lavas emitted since 1977.The precursors of the December 4 outbreak were limited to two-week shallow (1.5–3 km) seismic crisis of fewer than 50 events. No long-term increase was noted in the local seismicity which is very quiet during repose periods and no long-term ground inflation preceded the eruption. Outbreaks of Phases I and II were preceded by short (2.5 hours and 1.5 hours) seismic swarms corresponding to the rise of magma toward the surface from a shallow reservoir. Large ground deformation explained by the emplacement of the shallow intrusions, was recorded during the seismic swarms. A summit inflation was observed in early January, before the phase II outbreak, while the phase I eruption was still continuing.Piton de la Fournaise volcanological observatory was installed in 1980. Seismic and ground deformation data now available for a period of 4 years including the 1981 and the 1983–1984 eruptions, allow us to describe the physical behavior of the volcano during this period. These observations lead us to propose that the magma transfer from deep levels to the shallow magma reservoir is not a continuous process but a periodic one and that the shallow magma reservoir was not resupplied before the 1981 and 1983–1984 eruptions. Considerations on the eruptive history and the composition of recent lavas indicate that the reservoir was refilled in 1977.