Floods and livelihoods: The impact of changing water resources on wetland agro-ecological production systems in the Tana River Delta,Kenya

Wetlands are highly dynamic and productive systems that have been under increased pressure from changes in land use and water management strategies. In Eastern Africa, wetlands provide resources at multiple spatial and temporal levels through farming, fishing, livestock ownership and a host of other ecosystem services that sustain the local economy and individual livelihoods. As part of a broader effort to describe future development scenarios for East African coastal wetlands, this qualitative study focuses on understanding the processes by which river water depletion has affected local food production systems in Kenya's Tana River Delta over the past 50 years, and how this situation has impacted residents’ livelihoods and well-being. Interviews performed in six villages among various ethnic groups, geographical locations and resource profiles indicated that the agro-ecological production systems formerly in place were adapted to the river's dynamic flooding patterns. As these flooding patterns changed, the local population diversified and abandoned or adopted various farming, fishing and livestock-rearing techniques. Despite these efforts, the decrease in water availability affected each subcomponent of the production systems under study, which led to their collapse in the 1990s. Water depletion negatively impacted local human well-being through the loss of food security. The current study provides a detailed account of the dynamics of agro-ecological production systems facing the effects of river water depletion in a wetland-associated environment in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.     

Validation of MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields for monitoring deforestation and forest degradation: two cases in Mexico

This study assesses whether MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields percent tree cover (PTC) data can detect deforestation and forest degradation. To assess the usefulness of PTC for detecting deforestation, we used a data set consisting of eight forest and seven non-forest categories. To evaluate forest degradation, we used data from two temperate forest types in three conservation states: primary (dense), secondary (moderately degraded) and open (heavily degraded) forest. Our results show that PTC can differentiate temperate forest from non-forest categories (p = 0.05) and thus suggests PTC can adequately detect deforestation in temperate forests. In contrast, single-date PTC data does not appear to be adequate to detect forest degradation in temperate forests. As for tropical forest, PTC can partially discriminate between forest and non-forest categories.     

A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.     

Reefs at the edge: coral community structure around Rapa,southernmost French Polynesia

Rapa (27°36′ S, 144°20′ W) is a small (~40 km²) volcanic island isolated in the Southern Austral Archipelago, where direct anthropogenic stressors are extremely limited. Here, we present the results of the first quantitative survey of coral community structure across habitats and depths around the island. Despite its geographical isolation in the depauperate South Central Pacific, its small size and unfavourable environmental conditions (competition with macroalgae, low sea surface temperatures, reduced reef accretion), the diversity of scleractinian corals at Rapa is particularly high (112 species from 32 genera, including 37 species of Acropora) in comparison to other French Polynesian islands and subtropical Pacific locations. Our results indicate that the abundance (>100 colonies per 10 m² recorded at nine of the 17 sampling stations) and cover (>40% at four stations) of corals are relatively high for a marginal reef location. Strong spatial heterogeneity was found, with high variation in diversity, abundance, cover and community composition among stations. Variation in community composition was related to habitat types, with distinct assemblages among fringing reefs within bays, reef formations at bay entrances, and those on the submerged platform surrounding the island. On the platform, a depth gradient was detected, with generic richness, abundance and cover generally greater at deeper stations (18–20 m depth) compared with medium‐depth (10–12 m) and shallow (1–3 m) stations. A gradient was also recorded along bays, with increasing coral diversity and abundance from the bay heads to the bay entrances. The coral community at Rapa was characterized by the presence of several taxa not found in other French Polynesian archipelagos and the rarity of others that are common and abundant in the Society and the Tuamotu islands. Another distinctive feature of reef communities at Rapa is the high cover and dominance of macroalgae, particularly in the shallower parts of the surrounding platform, which probably explains the lower densities of coral colonies recorded there. These characteristics of the diversity and biogeographical composition of coral assemblages at Rapa provide considerable ecological grounds for its conservation.     

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.