Specifying a joint space- and time-lag using a bivariate Poisson distribution

Separate space- or time-lags have been considered regularly in data analyses; as space–time models are more recently being studied extensively in data analytic fashion, joint estimation of both lags has to be considered explicitly. This paper addresses this issue, taking into special consideration parametric parsimony together with specification richness; use of the bivariate Poisson frequency distribution is advocated and applied to an empirical case. The relation of this approach to random effects specifications is investigated. Data for Belgian regional products constitute the empirical case study.

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

The amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of human trampling on sandy beaches

The present paper assesses the use of the supralittoral amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of the effects of human trampling on the supralittoral sandy band. Samplings in delimited areas were carried out at sites subjected to different human impact. The results showed a strong negative correlation between the number of swimmers and the sandhopper population density, while there was no clear relationship between sandhopper abundance and the other factors considered: granulometry, compactness and organic carbon content of the sand, and trace metal contents in the sand and sandhoppers. A field test of trampling conducted in a confined space showed its direct negative effect on sandhopper survival. However, trace metal analysis confirmed the ability of T. saltator to bioaccumulate some elements (Hg, Zn, Cu, Cd). Our study demonstrates that T. saltator is a good bioindicator of human impact in the supralittoral zone of sandy shores.     

High-resolution record of tectonic and sedimentary processes in growth strata

Growth strata are used to determine the kinematics of synsedimentary structures such as faults. Classical methods of analysis such as thickness versus throw plot consider that the available space created by fault slip in the hanging wall of faults is instantaneously filled up by sediments. This has lead many previous works to identify a cyclic activity for growth faults. Here we perform a careful analysis of the variation of strata thicknesses on each side of a very well documented normal growth fault in the Niger delta. We show that these thickness variations are induced by the alternation of sedimentary processes during continuous fault slip. Suspended-load processes induce either uniform or slightly variable thickness of a large majority of mudstone layers. Bedload processes result in a preferential thickening of sand layers in the hanging wall. These high quality data thus provide strong grounds for doubting the polycyclic growth diagnosed for some faults at the scale of sedimentary cycles and supports the notion that fault displacement rates can be very well behaved. Our study emphasizes the important conclusion that stable fault growth, and related displacement rates, can appear to be punctuated when viewed at the scale of sedimentary cycles. It follows that care should be taken when attempting to derive displacement rates on temporal scales equivalent to those of alternating sedimentological cycles.     

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.     

High‐ to ultrahigh‐temperature metamorphism in the lower crust: An example resulting from Hikurangi Plateau collision and slab rollback in New Zealand

Lower crustal xenoliths erupted from an intraplate diatreme reveal that a portion of the New Zealand Gondwana margin experienced high‐temperature (HT) to ultrahigh‐temperature (UHT) granulite facies metamorphism just after flat slab subduction ceased at c. 110–105 Ma. P–T calculations for garnet–orthopyroxene‐bearing felsic granulite xenoliths indicate equilibration at ~815 to 910°C and 0.7 to 0.8 GPa, with garnet‐bearing mafic granulite xenoliths yielding at least 900°C. Supporting evidence for the attainment of HT and UHT conditions in felsic granulite comes from re‐integration of exsolution in feldspar (~900–950°C at 0.8 GPa), Ti‐in‐zircon thermometry on Y‐depleted overgrowths on detrital zircon grains (932°C ± 24°C at aTiO₂ = 0.8 ± 0.2), and correlation of observed assemblages and mineral compositions with thermodynamic modelling results (≥850°C at 0.7 to 0.8 GPa). The thin zircon overgrowths, which were mainly targeted by drilling through the cores of grains, yield a U–Pb pooled age of 91.7 ± 2.0 Ma. The cause of Late Cretaceous HT‐UHT metamorphism on the Zealandia Gondwana margin is attributed to collision and partial subduction of the buoyant oceanic Hikurangi Plateau in the Early Cretaceous. The halt of subduction caused the fore‐running shallowly dipping slab to rollback towards the trench position and permitted the upper mantle to rapidly increase the geothermal gradient through the base of the extending (former) accretionary prism. This sequence of events provides a mechanism for achieving regional HT–UHT conditions in the lower crust with little or no sign of this event at the surface.     

Record of enhanced late Pliocene tectono‐volcanic activity in the Lesser Antilles forearc basin: Insights into the long‐term behaviour of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone

In this study, we investigate the Lesser Antilles forearc basin, focusing on the late Pliocene to Pleistocene sedimentary archives in order to track the occurrence of extreme events triggered by enhanced subduction‐related tectono‐volcanic activity. We identify late Piacenzian deposits covering a major regional erosional surface, displaying sedimentary dykes and large marine boulders embedded in a mixed continental–marine matrix, characteristic of tsunamites. We interpret this episode of platform emersion and the successive cataclysmic deposits as resulting from enhanced tectonic activity at the interface of the subduction zone, synchronous with the initiation of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc. We then discuss the implications in terms of the mechanical behaviour of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone.     

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).     

Impact of soil and water conservation measures on catchment hydrological response—a case in north Ethiopia

Impact studies of catchment management in the developing world rarely include detailed hydrological components. Here, changes in the hydrological response of a 200‐ha catchment in north Ethiopia are investigated. The management included various soil and water conservation measures such as the construction of dry masonry stone bunds and check dams, the abandonment of post‐harvest grazing, and the establishment of woody vegetation. Measurements at the catchment outlet indicated a runoff depth of 5 mm or a runoff coefficient (RC) of 1·6% in the rainy season of 2006. Combined with runoff measurements at plot scale, this allowed calculating the runoff curve number (CN) for various land uses and land management techniques. The pre‐implementation runoff depth was then predicted using the CN values and a ponding adjustment factor, representing the abstraction of runoff induced by the 242 check dams in gullies. Using the 2006 rainfall depths, the runoff depth for the 2000 land management situation was predicted to be 26·5 mm (RC = 8%), in line with current RCs of nearby catchments. Monitoring of the ground water level indicated a rise after catchment management. The yearly rise in water table after the onset of the rains (ΔT) relative to the water surplus (WS) over the same period increased between 2002–2003 (ΔT/WS = 3·4) and 2006 (ΔT/WS >11·1). Emerging wells and irrigation are other indicators for improved water supply in the managed catchment. Cropped fields in the gullies indicate that farmers are less frightened for the destructive effects of flash floods. Due to increased soil water content, the crop growing period is prolonged. It can be concluded that this catchment management has resulted in a higher infiltration rate and a reduction of direct runoff volume by 81% which has had a positive influence on the catchment water balance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal patterns and controls on runoff magnitude and solution chemistry of urban catchments in the semiarid southwestern United States

Urban expansion and the scarcity of water supplies in arid and semiarid regions have increased the importance of urban runoff to localized water resources. However, urban catchment responses to precipitation are poorly understood in semiarid regions where intense rainfall often results in large runoff events during the short summer monsoon season. To evaluate how urban runoff quantity and quality respond to rainfall magnitude and timing, we collected stream stage data and runoff samples throughout the 2007 and 2008 summer monsoons from four ephemeral drainages in Tucson, Arizona. Antecedent rainfall explained 20% to 30% of discharge (mm) and runoff ratio in the least impervious (22%) catchment but was not statistically related to hydrologic responses at more impervious sites. Regression models indicated that rainfall depth, imperviousness and their combined effect control discharge and runoff ratios (p < 0.01, r² = 0.91 and 0.75, respectively). In contrast, runoff quality did not vary with imperviousness or catchment size. Rainfall depth and duration, time since antecedent rainfall and event and cumulative discharge controlled runoff hydrochemistry and resulted in five specific solute response patterns: (i) strong event and seasonal solute mobilization (solute flush), (ii) event chemostasis and strong seasonal flush, (iii) event chemostasis and weak seasonal flush, (iv) event and seasonal chemostasis and (v) late seasonal flush. Our results indicate that hydrologic responses of semiarid catchments are controlled by rainfall partitioning at the event scale, whereas wetting magnitude, frequency and timing alter solute stores readily available for transport and control temporal runoff quality. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.