The application of multiple linear regression method in reference evapotranspiration trend calculation

Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), as a key factor in irrigation programming, has an important role in water resources management. Many parameters affect ET₀ and their variations can change its values. In this paper, the effect of temporal variation of meteorological variables including wind speed, temperature, solar radiation and saturation vapor pressure deficit on temporal variations of ET₀ was analyzed. Trend analysis of ET₀ and its more effective meteorological parameters was accomplished in 30 synoptic stations which are located in Iran using Spearman’s Rho test. The multiple linear regressions were also used to determine the relationship between ET₀ trend and the trend of its more effective parameters. Increasing and decreasing trends in ET₀ were obtained at annual and seasonal scales. Many studied stations which had decreasing trend in the annual and seasonal periods have been located in the arid climates while all stations which have been located in humid and very-humid climates, had an increasing trend in annual and seasonal periods. The trend results in studied variables showed that annual and seasonal values of wind speed, temperature and saturation vapor pressure deficit decrease however the values of solar radiation increases in most studied stations. Multiple linear regressions results demonstrated that ET₀ trend can be calculated by the trend of two more effective variables including wind speed and saturation vapor pressure deficit.     

The spatial–temporal variation of dry and wet periods in Iran based on comparing SPI and RDI indices

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause harmful effects on water resources. To monitor drought, the use of an indicator and determination of wet and dry period trend seem to have an important role in quantifying the drought analysis. In this paper, in addition to the comparison of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based on the most appropriate probability distribution function, it was tried to examine the trends of dry and wet periods based on the mentioned indices. Accordingly, the meteorological data of 30 synoptic stations in Iran (1960–2014) was used and the trend was analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test by eliminating the effect of any significant autocorrelation coefficients at 95% confidence level (modified Mann–Kendall). Comparing results between the time series of RDI and SPI drought indices based on statistical indicators (RMSE?<?0.434, R²?>?0.819 and T-statistic?<?0.419) in all studied stations revealed that the behavior of the two indices was roughly the same and the difference between them was not significant. The trend analysis results of RDI and SPI indices based on modified Mann–Kendall test showed that the variation of dry and wet periods was decreasing in most of the studied stations (five cases were significant). In addition, the results of the trend line slope of dry and wet periods related to the drought indices in the studied area indicated that the slope was negative for SPI and RDI indices in 70% and 50% of stations, respectively.     

An Integrated Water Resources Management Considering Agricultural Demands and the Assessment of Different Scenarios in Hirmand Catchment,Iran

Water Resources - The lack of water resources as a critical substance and the increase of water demands and also the complexity of water resources management issues are made the integrated water...     

Determination of Salinity in Fluid Inclusions with Laser Raman Spectroscopy Technique

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＬａｓｅｒＲａｍａｎｍｉｃｒｏｐｒｏｂｅｈａｓｂｅｅｎｆｏｕｎｄｉｎｍａｎｙｇｅｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｓ (Ｓｈｏｖａｌｅｔａｌ.,1995 ;ＭｃＭｉｌｌａｎａｎｄＨｏｆｍｅｉｓｔｅｒ,1988;ＭｃＭｉｌｌａｎ ,1984;Ｄｕｂｅｓｓｙｅｔａｌ.,1982 ;Ｇｒｉｆｆｉｔｈ ,1975 )ａｎｄａｓａｎｏｎ ｄｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｉｖｅａｎｄｉｎｓｉｔｕｔｅｃｈｎｉｑｕｅ,ｉｔｈａｓｈａｄａｔｒｅｍｅｎｄｏｕｓｉｍｐａｃｔｏｎｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｆｌｕｉｄｉｎｃｌｕｓｉｏｎｃｏｍｐｏｓｉ…     

Comparison of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration (<Emphasis Type="Italic">A</Emphasis>max) with PSHA in Iran

Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (A_max) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of A_max and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of A_max on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the A_max is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of A_max for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.     

Peak displacement patterns for the performance-based seismic design of steel eccentrically braced frames

Performance-based seismic design(PBSD) aims to assess structures at different damage states. Since damage can be directly associated to displacements, seismic design with consideration of displacement seems to be logical. In this study, simple formulae to estimate the peak floor displacement patterns of eccentrically braced frames(EBFs) at different performance levels subjected to earthquake ground motions are proposed. These formulae are applicable in a PBSD and especially in direct displacement-based design(DDBD). Parametric study is conducted on a group of 30 EBFs under a set of 15 far field and near field accelerograms which they scaled to different amplitudes to adapt various performance levels. The results of thousands of nonlinear dynamic analyses of EBFs have been post-processed by nonlinear regression analysis in order to recognize the major parameters that influence the peak displacement pattern of these frames. Results show that suggested displacement patterns have relatively good agreement with those acquired by an exact nonlinear dynamic analysis.     

Effects of rotational components of earthquake on seismic response of arch concrete dams

The present study deals with dynamic analysis of arch concrete dams, taking rotational components of earthquakes into account. A modified methodology was used to evaluate the rotational components of the earthquake. The translational components of the earthquake have been used in to obtain the rotational components of the earthquake, based on the intersecting isotropic elastic wave propagation. Two rotational components of Taft, Tabas and San-Fernando earthquakes are evaluated based on the translational components of the earthquakes and considering frequency dependencies of incident angle and wave velocity. Finally, dynamic analyses of Morrow Point Dam are presented to evaluate the effects of combined translational and rotational components on the seismic response of the dam. Various conditions of reservoirs, including full and empty state, are considered in the analyses. Fluid–structure interaction was completely taken into account. It was realized that incorporating rotational components increased the maximum compressive and tensile stresses in both empty and full reservoir analyses. Distribution of maximum tensile stresses is very sensitive to the rotational components of the earthquake. Also, it can be concluded that the segregated effect of the rocking component on the response of concrete dams is more effective than the sole effect of the torsional component.     

Investigating extreme scenarios with multiple-point geostatistics and variance maximization

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - In many geoscience applications, the data extracted from environmental variables are very limited. Multiple-point geostatistical (MPS)...     

Post‐stack diffraction imaging in vertical transverse isotropy media using non‐hyperbolic moveout approximations

Diffractions carry valuable information about local discontinuities and small‐scale objects in the subsurface. They are still not commonly used in the process of geological interpretation. Many diffraction imaging techniques have been developed and applied for isotropic media, whereas relatively few techniques have been developed for anisotropic media. Ignoring anisotropy can result in low‐resolution images with wrongly positioned or spurious diffractors. In this article, we suggest taking anisotropy into account in two‐dimensional post‐stack domain by considering P‐wave non‐hyperbolic diffraction traveltime approximations for vertical transverse isotropy media, previously developed for reflection seismology. The accuracy of the final images is directly connected to the accuracy of the diffraction traveltime approximations. We quantified the accuracy of six different approximations, including hyperbolic moveout approximation, by the application of a post‐stack diffraction imaging technique on two‐dimensional synthetic data examples.