Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Holocene alpine glaciation inferred from lacustrine sediments on northeastern Baffin Island,Arctic Canada

With accelerated melting of alpine glaciers, understanding the future state of the cryosphere is critical. Because the observational record of glacier response to climate change is short, palaeo‐records of glacier change are needed. Using proglacial lake sediments, which contain continuous and datable records of past glacier activity, we investigate Holocene glacier fluctuations on northeastern Baffin Island. Basal radiocarbon ages from three lakes constrain Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat by ca. 10.5 ka. High sedimentation rates (0.03 cm a^?1) and continuous minerogenic sedimentation throughout the Holocene in proglacial lakes, in contrast to organic‐rich sediments and low sedimentation rates (0.005 cm a^?1) in neighbouring non‐glacial lakes, suggest that glaciers may have persisted in proglacial lake catchments since regional deglaciation. The presence of varves and relatively high magnetic susceptibility from 10 to 6 ka and since 2 ka in one proglacial lake suggest minimum Holocene glacier extent ca. 6–2 ka. Moraine evidence and proglacial and threshold lake sediments indicate that the maximum Holocene glacier extent occurred during the Little Ice Age. The finding that glaciers likely persisted through the Holocene is surprising, given that regional proxy records reveal summer temperatures several degrees warmer than today, and may be due to shorter ablation seasons and greater accumulation‐season precipitation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

Application of a Bayesian model to infer the contribution of coalbed natural gas produced water to the Powder River,Wyoming and Montana

The Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming and Montana contains significant coal and coal bed natural gas (CBNG) resources. CBNG extraction requires the production of large volumes of water, much of which is discharged into existing drainages. Compared to surface waters, the CBNG produced water is high in sodium relative to calcium and magnesium, elevating the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). To mitigate the possible impact this produced water may have on the quality of surface water used for irrigation, the State of Montana passed water anti‐degradation legislation, which could affect CBNG production in Wyoming. In this study, we sought to determine the proportion of CBNG produced water discharged to tributaries that reaches the Powder River by implementing a four end‐member mixing model within a Bayesian statistical framework. The model accounts for the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, δ¹³C_DIC, [Sr] and [DIC] of CBNG produced water and surface water interacting with the three primary lithologies exposed in the PRB. The model estimates the relative contribution of the end members to the river water, while incorporating uncertainty associated with measurement and process error. Model results confirm that both of the tributaries associated with high CBNG activity are mostly composed of CBNG produced water (70–100%). The model indicates that up to 50% of the Powder River is composed of CBNG produced water downstream from the CBNG tributaries, decreasing with distance by dilution from non‐CBNG impacted tributaries from the point sources to ~10–20% at the Montana border. This amount of CBNG produced water does not significantly affect the SAR or electrical conductivity of the Powder River in Montana. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Constraining Holocene 10Be production rates in Greenland

The absence of a production rate calibration experiment on Greenland has limited the ability to link ¹⁰Be exposure dating chronologies of ice‐margin change to independent records of rapid climate change. We use radiocarbon age control on Holocene glacial features near Jakobshavn Isbræ, western Greenland, to investigate ¹⁰Be production rates. The radiocarbon chronology is inconsistent with the ¹⁰Be age calculations based on the current globally averaged ¹⁰Be production rate calibration data set, but is consistent with the ¹⁰Be production rate calibration data set from north‐eastern North America, which includes a calibration site nearby on north‐eastern Baffin Island. Based on the best‐dated feature available from the Jakobshavn Isbræ forefield, we derive a ¹⁰Be production rate value of 3.98 ± 0.24 atoms g a^?1, using the ‘St’ scaling scheme, which overlaps with recently published reference ¹⁰Be production rates. We suggest that these ¹⁰Be production rate data, or the very similar data from north‐eastern North America, are used on Greenland. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revealing hydrocarbon migration pathways

In this paper a general concept for revealing hydrocarbon migration pathways in rock sequences is introduced. The concept uses a multidisciplinary approach based on a geochemical and a petrophysical (or mineralogical) index. These two indices provide together the migration plot which shows the direction of hydrocarbon movement.With the help of this technique, serrerai hydrocarbon migration effects were established for a sequence of continous cores from the Upper Carboniferous. The results were verified by comparing gradients of hydrocarbon concentrations relative to pore volume. In this way the relative importance of individual migration pathways were recognized, as well as presently or formerly active migration pathways.The strong influence of permeability changes on hydrocarbon movement in source beds requires the use of the »atypical pore network« model to supplement the kerogen network model. Both models help in understanding the mechanisms of primary migration, but in certain stiuations, one might be more effective than the other.

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Zusammenfassung In diesem Aufsatz wird ein Konzept vorgestellt zur Erkennung von Erdölmigrationsbahnen in Gesteinsabfolgen. Das Konzept ist multidisziplinär ausgerichtet und beruht auf der Anwendung eines geochemischen und eines petrophysikalischen (oder mineralogischen) Parameters. Beide zusammen genommen erlauben die Erstellung eines Migrationsdiagramms, das angibt in welche Richtung sich die Kohlenwasserstoffe bewegen.Mittels dieser Methode wurden in einer fortlaufenden Abfolge von Bohrkernen aus dem Oberkarbon mehrere Trends für die Migrationsrichtung von Erdöl erkannt. Diese Trends wurden durch Vergleich mit Kohlenwasserstoffkonzentrationsgradienten, bezogen auf das Porenvolumen des Gesteins, verifiziert. Auf diese Art und Weise ließ sich sowohl die Bedeutung der einzelnen Migrationsbahnen relativieren als auch zwischen jetzigen und früheren Migrationswegen unterscheiden.Der starke Einfluß von Permeabilitätsänderungen auf die Bewegung von Kohlenwasserstoffen auch in Erdölmuttergesteinen fordert die Anwendung des »Atypischen Porennetzwerk-Modells« als Ergänzung zum Kerogennetzwerk-Modell. Beide Modelle tragen wesentlich zum Verständnis der Mechanismen der primären Migration von Erdöl bei, jedoch kann im Einzelfall die Verwendung des einen Modells effektiver sein als die des anderen.

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Résumé L'auteur présente une méthode générale permettant de déterminer le chemin suivi par les hydrocarbures lors de leur migration à travers les roches. Cette méthode utilise une approche multidisciplinaire basée sur un indice géochimique et un indice pétrophysique (ou minéralogique). Ces deux indices combinés fournissent l'indice de migration, qui indique la direction du déplacement des hydrocarbures.Cette méthode a permis d'établir les effets de plusieurs migrations d'hydrocarbure dans une série continue de carottes du Carbonifère supérieur. Les résultats obtenus ont été vérifiés en comparant les gradients du rapport concentration d'hydrocarbure/volume des pores. On peut reconnaître, de cette manière, l'importance relative des voies individuelles de migration, ainsi que celle des voies de migration actives aujourd'hui ou dans le passé.Etant donné le rôle important joué par les différences de perméabilité dans le déplacement des hydrocarbures au sein des roches, on se réfère au modèle Atypical Pore Network, qui complète le modèle Kerogene Network. Les deux modèles sont utilisés de manière complémentaire pour comprendre les mécanismes de la migration primaire; dans des cas extrêmes, l'un d'eux peut être plus effectif que l'autre.Cette approche constitue un nouveau pas vers une meilleure identification et une meilleure quantification des effets de la migration; elle offre des avantages considérables en raison de la diversité des paramètres qui peuvent être utilisés. Comme n'importe quel autre outil d'exploration, elle ne peut être utilisée seule dans les travaux d'évaluation et d'interprétation. Pour porter tous ses fruits, elle doit être intégrée aux données géologiques, géophysiques et surtout hydrodynamiques.

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The long-term dynamics of crustacean communities in Lake Constance (Obersee, 1962–1986)

The long-term development of crustacean associations in the Obersee of Lake Constance was studied at one central station from 1962 to 1986. In a simultaneously managed program with four additional stations from the eastern part (Bregenz Bay) to the western überlinger See mainly the differences in horizontal distribution were focussed. It was one aim of these investigations, to get an idea or an indication of a connexion between the recently observed eutrophication of the Obersee, and its crustacean communities. Due to the immigration of several species (cyclopids) or genotypes (Daphnia), the communities had changed in genetical structures, in reproduction rates and in predation or grazing impact. Dependent on the specific annual cycles, there resulted an extermination (Heterocope, Diaphanosoma), or a long-term decrease in annual means (Mesocyclops, Cyclops abyssorum) of the “old-settled” species. A general tendency was seen in an increase of annual averages until the middle of the seventies, and a following decrease of population density of most of the species. The horizontal differences in the species associations were remarkable. The Bregenz Bay showed an own aspect in its crustacean community with high total numbers and in earlier spring development. Most of the newcomers were concentrated in the eastern part of the lake.     

Tertiary basalts and peridotite xenoliths from the Hessian Depression (NW Germany), reflecting mantle compositions low in radiogenic Nd and Sr

A total of 17 alkali basalts (alkali olivine basalt, limburgite, olivine nephelinite) and quartz tholeiites, and of 10 peridotite xenoliths (or their clinopyroxenes) were analyzed for Nd and Sr isotopes. ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of all basalts and of the majority of ultramafic xenoliths plot below the mantle array with a large variation in Nd isotopes and a smaller variation in Sr isotopes. The tholeiites were less radiogenic in Nd than the alkali basalts. Volcanics from the Eifel and Massif Central regions contain Nd and Sr, which is more radiogenic than that of the basalts from the Hessian Depression. Nd and Sr isotopic compositions of all rocks from the latter area, with the exception of one tholeiite and one peridotite plot in the same field of isotope ratios as the Ronda ultramafic tectonite (SW Spain), which ranges in composition from garnet to plagioclase peridotite. The alkali basaltic rocks are products of smaller degrees of partial melting of depleted peridotite, which has undergone a larger metasomatic alteration compared with the source rock of tholeiitic magmas. For the peridotite xenoliths such metasomatic alteration is indicated by the correlation of their K contents and isotopic compositions. We assume that the upper mantle locally can acquire isotopic signatures low in radiogenic Nd and Sr from the introduction of delaminated crust. Such granulites low in radiogenic Nd and Sr are products of early REE fractionation and granite (Rb) separation.     

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995