Hybrid Model for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting: A Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Approach

Air pollution is usually driven by a complex combination of factors in which meteorology, physical obstacles, and interactions between pollutants play significant roles. Considering the characteristics of urban atmospheric pollution and its consequent impacts on human health and quality of life, forecasting models have emerged as an effective tool to identify and forecast air pollution episodes. The overall objective of the present work is to produce forecasts of pollutant concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts. Therefore, a new approach was developed based on a two-step methodology. Firstly, neural network models were used to generate short-term temporal forecasts based on air pollution and meteorology data. The accuracy of those forecasts was then evaluated against an independent set of historical data. Secondly, local conditional distributions of the observed values with respect to the predicted values were used to perform spatial stochastic simulations for the entire geographic area of interest. With this approach the spatio-temporal dispersion of a pollutant can be predicted, while accounting for both the temporal uncertainty in the forecast (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. Based on an analysis of the results, our proposed method offers a highly promising alternative for the characterization of urban air quality.     

Coastal vulnerability to wave storms of Sele littoral plain (southern Italy)

This paper presents a new method for coastal vulnerability assessment (CVA), which relies upon three indicators: run-up distance (as a measurement of coastal inundation), beach retreat (as a measurement of potential erosion), and beach erosion rate (obtained through the shoreline positions in different periods). The coastal vulnerability analysis of Sele Coastal Plain to storm impacts is examined along a number of beach profiles realized between 2008 and 2009. This particular study area has been selected due to its low-lying topography and high erosion propensity. Results are given in terms of an impact index, performed by combining the response due to coastal inundation, storm erosion, and beach erosion rate. This analysis is implemented on the basis of morphosedimentary characteristics of the beach, wave climate evaluation, and examination of multitemporal aerial photographs and topographic maps. The analysis of the final results evidences different coastal responses as a function of the beach width and slope, which in turn depend on the local anthropization level. The comparison of this method with a Coastal Vulnerability Index method evidences the better attitude of CVA index to take into account the different beach features to explain the experienced damages in specific stretches of the coastline considered.     

Natural Variability of Shear Strength in a Granite Residual Soil from Porto

The renewal imposed by the Eurocodes regarding the methodologies of safety evaluation requires a statistical analysis of the variability of ground geotechnical parameters. However, the studies published in the reviewed literature do not cover the typical materials from the northeast region of Portugal—residual soils from granite—to which a strong heterogeneity is associated. Hence, a statistical characterization of the natural variability of a granite residual soil from Porto has been made through a significant amount of experimental tests, focusing on its geomechanical properties. In order to provide a database for probabilistic analysis of problems involving this type of soils, an appropriate statistical law has been used to model its variability, which has been quantified by means of coefficients of variation and scales of fluctuation.     

Relationship between Hypoxia and Macrobenthic Production in Chesapeake Bay

Human development has degraded Chesapeake Bay's health, resulting in an increase in the extent and severity of hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l^-1). The Bay's hypoxic zones have an adverse effect on both community structure and secondary production of macrobenthos. From 1996 to 2004, the effect of hypoxia on macrobenthic production was assessed in Chesapeake Bay and its three main tributaries (Potomac, Rappahannock, and York Rivers). Each year, in the summer (late July???early September), 25 random samples of the benthic macrofauna were collected from each system, and macrobenthic production in the polyhaline and mesohaline regions was estimated using Edgar's allometric equation. Fluctuations in macrobenthic production were significantly correlated with dissolved oxygen. Macrobenthic production was 90 % lower during hypoxia relative to normoxia. As a result, there was a biomass loss of ~7,320–13,200 metric tons C over an area of 7,720 km², which is estimated to equate to a 20 % to 35 % displacement of the Bay's macrobenthic productivity during the summer. While higher consumers may benefit from easy access to stressed prey in some areas, the large spatial and temporal extent of seasonal hypoxia limits higher trophic level transfer, via the inhibition of macrobenthic production. Such a massive loss of macrobenthic production would be detrimental to the overall health of the Bay, as it comes at a time when epibenthic and demersal predators have high-energy demands.     

Dispersion modeling of air pollutants in the atmosphere: a review

Modeling of dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere is one of the most important and challenging scientific problems. There are several natural and anthropogenic events where passive or chemically active compounds are emitted into the atmosphere. The effect of these chemical species can have serious impacts on our environment and human health. Modeling the dispersion of air pollutants can predict this effect. Therefore, development of various model strategies is a key element for the governmental and scientific communities. We provide here a brief review on the mathematical modeling of the dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of several model tools and strategies, namely Gaussian, Lagrangian, Eulerian and CFD models. We especially focus on several recent advances in this multidisciplinary research field, like parallel computing using graphical processing units, or adaptive mesh refinement.     

Salt and nitrate exports from the sprinkler-irrigated Malfarás creek watershed (Ebro river valley,Spain) during 2010

Irrigated agriculture is a clear source of non-point pollution by salts and nitrogen species. The impact of such pollution should be quantified according to specific cases. The case of the Malfarás creek basin, a sprinkler irrigation district located in the semiarid Ebro valley in northeast Spain, has been evaluated. The main crops in the district were corn, barley and alfalfa, occupying 93 % of the irrigated area. The fate of water, salts and nutrients was evaluated by a daily water balance developed at a field scale for the natural year 2010. The yearly data of the whole set of 101 irrigated fields plus the non-irrigated area compared to the measured drainage produced a basin water balance with a low degree of error. The basin consumed 90 % of the total water input of which 68 % was used for crop evapotranspiration and the rest was lost due to non-productive uses. 16 % of the incoming water left the irrigation area as drainage water. The irrigated area was responsible for 87 % of the drainage. The average volume of drained water was 152 mm year^?1 for the whole basin area. The irrigated area drained 183 mm year^?1. The basin exported 473 kg of salt per hectare during 2010. This value was the lowest of the sprinkler irrigation areas in the Ebro valley, mainly due to the lower soil salinity. All the crops except barley received a nitrogen surplus of 10–50 % above their needs. The extra nitrogen entered the water cycle increasing the nitrate concentration in the aquifer water (150 mg L^?1) and drainage water (98 mg L^?1). In 2010 the mass of nitrogen exported by drainage was 49 kg per irrigated hectare. This value is too high for this type of irrigation system and implies that 17 % of nitrogen applied as a fertilizer was lost to drainage water. The key to decreasing the nitrogen leaching and pollution that it causes could be appropriate time-controlled fertigation along with better irrigation scheduling.     

Zinc and sulfur isotope variation in sphalerite from carbonate-hosted zinc deposits,Cantabria, Spain

We studied zinc and sulfur isotopes and the chemical composition of sphalerite samples from Picos de Europa (Aliva mine) and sphalerite and hydrozincite samples from La Florida mine, two carbonate-hosted Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) deposits located in northern Spain; despite being close, they are hosted in carbonatic rocks of different ages, Lower Carboniferous and Lower Cretaceous, respectively. The two generations of sphalerite at Picos de Europa show different δ⁶⁶Zn values (stage 1 sphalerite +0.24 per mil and stage 2 sphalerite from ?0.75 to +0.08 per mil). Both generations also differ in the sulfur isotope composition (stage 1 has δ³⁴S?=?+6.6 and stage 2 has δ³⁴S?=??0.9 to +2.9 per mil) and the chemical composition (stage 1 sphalerite, compared to stage 2 sphalerite, is significantly enriched in Pb, As, Mn, Sb, slightly enriched in Ag, Ni, and Cu and depleted in Co, Ga, Tl, Te, Ge, and Sn). We suggest that Zn isotope fractionation was controlled predominantly by pH and T changes. High Zn isotope values reflect rapid precipitation of sphalerite from higher-temperature acidic fluids that carried Zn mostly as chloride species after interaction with carbonate rocks while lower Zn isotope values most likely resulted from a longer precipitation process from fluid at higher pH and decreasing T that carried dominantly Zn sulfide species. At La Florida, sphalerite samples show light ⁶⁶Zn-depleted signatures with δ⁶⁶Zn values from ?0.80 to ?0.01 per mil (mostly between ?0.80 and ?0.24 per mil) and δ³⁴S values from +10.7 to +15.7 per mil without any relationship between the δ⁶⁶Zn and δ³⁴S values. Here, the variation in Zn isotope values is interpreted as related to mixing of fluids from two reservoirs. The Zn was carried by a single deep-seated and higher T (~250–320 °C) fluid, and precipitation took place after mixing with a connate S-rich fluid in a system with mH₂S?>?mZn²⁺ as a result of change in pH, T, and Zn predominant species. The light δ⁶⁶Zn accompanied by heavy δ³⁴S values resulted from fractionation of Zn aqueous sulfides at near-neutral pH and decreasing T. Hydrozincite samples show much heavier δ⁶⁶Zn values (+0.21 to +0.33 per mil), consistent with fractionation during supergene processes.     

Evolution in sea ice from 1978 to 2012

In this paper, the intra-annual and interannual variability of the sea ice is analysed over the period 1979–2012 from the data and images facilitated by the “National Snow and Ice dates Center”. These data are related to the annual average temperature. The annual average of the marine ice surface area (1979–2012) is very similar in both poles, although its temporary evolution is opposed in both hemispheres. In the Arctic Ocean there is an abrupt reduction of the surface area of the ice during this period. As opposed to it, the marine seas surrounding the Antarctic show an increase of the extension of the ice, especially in the last 15 years, with a maximum value in 2012. With respect to the total of the marine ice over the period 1979–2012, there is an overall deficit balance, because the reduction of the Arctic ice is greater than the increase of the Antarctic ice.     

Tertiary alkaline Roztoky Intrusive Complex, České středohoří Mts., Czech Republic: petrogenetic characteristics

The ?eské st?edoho?í Mts. is the dominant volcanic center of the Oh?e (Eger) rift zone. It hosts the Roztoky Intrusive Complex (RIC), which is made up of a caldera vent and intrusions of 33–28-Ma-old hypabyssal bodies of essexite–monzodiorite–sodalite syenite series accompanied by a radially oriented 30–25-Ma-old dike swarm comprising about 1,000 dikes. The hypabyssal rocks are mildly alkaline mostly foid-bearing types of mafic to intermediate compositions. The dike swarm consists of chemically mildly alkaline and rare strongly alkaline rocks (tinguaites). The geochemical signatures of the mildly alkaline hypabyssal and associated dike rocks of the RIC are consistent with HIMU mantle sources and contributions from lithospheric mantle. The compositional variations of essexite and monzodiorite can be best explained by fractional crystallization of parent magma without significant contributions of crustal material. On the other hand, the composition of monzosyenite, leuco-monzodiorite and sodalite syenite reflects fractional crystallization coupled with variable degrees of crustal assimilation. It is suggested that the parent magmas in the Oh?e rift were produced by an adiabatic decompression melting of ambient upper mantle in response to lithospheric extension associated with the Alpine Orogeny.