Spatial variability and interpolation of daily precipitation amount

Daily precipitation amounts show spatial variation over sub-continential regions. Point measurements, represntative for regions of land, have to be interpolated towards unobserved locations. In this study four days in 1984 were selected to investigate the spatial variability of daily precipitation amount in north-western Europe in relation to the meteorological conditions. Data were interpolated using kriging. Crossvalidation was used to compare interpolated values with measured values. Large differences in the spatial structure of daily precipitation amount are observed as a result of different meteorological conditions. Stratification of the study area into a coast, a mountain and an interior stratum proved to be successful, reducing the Mean Squared Error of Prediction with up to 55%.This article was inadvertently printed in SHH 6(3) 1992 without figures and figure legends. The article is being reprinted in this issue in complete form. The editor apologizes for this error in publication.     

Microséismes et Séismes précédant l’éruption du Nyamuragira-Kitzimbanyi (Afrique Centrale) 1958

An analysis is made of microseismic and seismic activity for a period of about 3 months prior to the 1958 eruption in the Virunga Volcanoes, Western Rift Valley of Central Africa. It is believed that it would have been possible to predict the eruption some 30 h before, on the basis of two series of small earthquakes preceeding the 2 outbrakes by some 50 h, and presenting an exponential decay of the total number of shocks.     

Climate Change Policy Targets and the Role of Technological Change

In this paper, we present results of simulationexperiments with the TIME-model on the issue ofmitigation strategies with regard to greenhouse gases.The TIME-model is an integrated system dynamics worldenergy model that takes into account the fact that the systemhas an inbuilt inertia and endogenouslearning-by-doing dynamics, besides the more commonelements of price-induced demand response and fuelsubstitution. First, we present four scenarios tohighlight the importance of assumptions on innovationsin energy technology in assessing the extent to whichCO₂ emissions have to be reduced. The inertia ofthe energy system seems to make a rise ofCO₂ emissions in the short term almostunavoidable. It is concluded that for the populationand economic growth assumptions of the IPCC IS92ascenario, only a combination of supply- anddemand-side oriented technological innovations incombination with policy measures can bring the targetof CO₂-concentration stabilization at 550 ppmv bythe year 2100 within reach. This will probably beassociated with a temporary increase in the overallenergy expenditures in the world economy. Postponingthe policy measures will be more disadvantageous,and less innovation in energy technology willhappen.     

Innovating the IPCC review process—the potential of young talent

There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of a contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In an effort to review the entire Working Group II contribution to the AR5 within the official review period for the Second Order Draft (SOD), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency turned to PhD students. This article shows that a systematic review focusing on transparency and errors of a large scientific assessment document using young talented scientists can be successful if certain conditions are met. The reviewers need to have intrinsic motivation to conduct the review. There needs to be a communication plan that fosters engagement and a clear methodology to guide the reviewers through their task. Based on this experiment in review, we reflect on the wider potential for openness and crowdsourcing in scientific assessment processes such as the IPCC’s.     

Model simulations of dense bottom currents in the Western Baltic Sea

Only recently, medium intensity inflow events into the Baltic Sea have gained more awareness because of their potential to ventilate intermediate layers in the Southern Baltic Sea basins. With the present high-resolution model study of the Western Baltic Sea a first attempt is made to obtain model based realistic estimates of turbulent mixing in this area where dense bottom currents resulting from medium intensity inflow events are weakened by turbulent entrainment. The numerical model simulation which is carried out using the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) during nine months in 2003 and 2004 is first validated by means of three automatic stations at the Drogden and Darss Sills and in the Arkona Sea. In order to obtain good agreement between observations and model results, the 0.5×0.5$0.5\times 0.5$ nautical mile bathymetry had to be adjusted in order to account for the fact that even at that scale many relevant topographic features are not resolved. Current velocity, salinity and turbulence observations during a medium intensity inflow event through the Øresund are then compared to the model results. Given the general problems of point to point comparisons between observations and model simulations, the agreement is fairly good with the characteristic features of the inflow event well represented by the model simulations. Two different bulk measures for mixing activity are then introduced, the vertically integrated decay of salinity variance, which is equal to the production of micro-scale salinity variance, and the vertically integrated turbulent salt flux, which is related to an increase of potential energy due to vertical mixing of stably stratified flow. Both measures give qualitatively similar results and identify the Drogden and Darss Sills as well as the Bornholm Channel as mixing hot spots. Further regions of strong mixing are the dense bottom current pathways from these sills into the Arkona Sea, areas around Kriegers Flak (a shoal in the western Arkona Sea) and north–west of the island of Rügen.     

Tropospheric corrections to SAR interferometry from GPS observations

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques have been recognized as an ideal tool for many ground deformation monitoring applications. However, the spatially and temporally variable delay of the radar signal propagating through the atmosphere is a major limitation to accuracy. The dominant factor to be considered is the tropospheric heterogeneity, which can lead to misinterpretation of InSAR results. In this paper, a between-site (BS) and between-epoch (BE) double-differencing algorithm for the generation of tropospheric corrections to InSAR results based on GPS observations is tested. In order to correct the radar results on a pixel-by-pixel basis, the GPS-derived corrections have to be interpolated. Using experimental data it has been found that the inverse distance weighted and kriging interpolation methods are more suitable than the spline interpolation method. Differential corrections as large as several centimeters may have to be applied in order to ensure sub-centimeter accuracy for the InSAR result. The algorithm and procedures described in this paper could easily be implemented in a continuous GPS network data center. The interpolated image of BS, single-differenced tropospheric delays can be derived as a routine product to assist radar interferometry.     

The H2O and CO2 adsorption properties of phyllosilicate-poor palagonitic dust and smectites under martian environmental conditions

The recent detection of up to ∼10 wt% water-equivalent H heterogeneously distributed in the upper meter of the equatorial regions of the martian surface and the presence of the 3-μm hydrations feature across the entire planet raises the question whether martian surficial dust can account for this water-equivalent H. We have investigated the H₂O and CO₂ adsorption properties of palagonitic dust (<5 μm size fraction of phyllosilicate-poor palagonitic tephra HWMK919) as a martian dust analog and two smectites under simulated martian equatorial surface conditions. Our results show that the palagonitic dust, which contains hydrated and hydroxylated volcanic glass of basaltic composition, accommodates significantly more H₂O under comparable humidity and temperature conditions than do the smectites nontronite and montmorillonite.     

Modelling the effect of time‐dependent river dune evolution on bed roughness and stage

This paper presents an approach to incorporate time‐dependent dune evolution in the determination of bed roughness coefficients applied in hydraulic models. Dune roughness is calculated by using the process‐based dune evolution model of Paarlberg et al. ( 2009 ) and the empirical dune roughness predictor of Van Rijn ( 1984 ). The approach is illustrated by applying it to a river of simple geometry in the 1‐D hydraulic model SOBEK for two different flood wave shapes. Calculated dune heights clearly show a dependency on rate of change in discharge with time: dunes grow to larger heights for a flood wave with a smaller rate of change. Bed roughness coefficients computed using the new approach can be up to 10% higher than roughness coefficients based on calibration, with the largest differences at low flows. As a result of this larger bed roughness, computed water depths can be up to 15% larger at low flow. The new approach helps to reduce uncertainties in bed roughness coefficients of flow models, especially for river systems with strong variations in discharge with time. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Amorphous silicates as a record of solar nebular and parent body processes—A transmission electron microscope study of fine‐grained rims and matrix in three Antarctic CR chondrites

Renazzo‐type (CR) carbonaceous chondrites belong to one of the most pristine meteorite groups containing various early solar system components such as matrix and fine‐grained rims (FGRs), whose formation mechanisms are still debated. Here, we have investigated FGRs of three Antarctic CR chondrites (GRA 95229, MIL 07525, and EET 92161) by electron microscopy techniques. We specifically focused on the abundances and chemical compositions of the amorphous silicates within the rims and matrix by analytical transmission electron microscopy. Comparison of the amorphous silicate composition to a matrix area of GRA 95229 clearly shows a compositional relationship between the matrix and the fine‐grained rim, such as similar Mg/Si and Fe/Si ratios. This relationship and the abundance of the amorphous silicates in the rims strengthen a solar nebular origin and rule out a primary formation mechanism by parent body processes such as chondrule erosion. Moreover, our chemical analyses of the amorphous silicates and their abundance indicate that the CR rims experienced progressive alteration stages. According to our analyses, the GRA 95229 sample is the least altered one based on its high modal abundance of amorphous silicates (31%) and close‐to‐chondritic Fe/Si ratios, followed by MIL 07525 and finally EET 92161 with lesser amounts of amorphous silicates (12% and 5%, respectively) and higher Fe/Si ratios. Abundances and chemical compositions of amorphous silicates within matrix and rims are therefore suitable recorders to track different alteration stages on a submicron scale within variably altered CR chondrites.