The role of horizontal resolution in simulating drivers of the global hydrological cycle

The role of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) horizontal resolution in representing the global energy budget and hydrological cycle is assessed, with the aim of improving the understanding of model uncertainties in simulating the hydrological cycle. We use two AGCMs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre: HadGEM1-A at resolutions ranging from 270 to 60 km, and HadGEM3-A ranging from 135 to 25 km. The models exhibit a stable hydrological cycle, although too intense compared to reanalyses and observations. This over-intensity is explained by excess surface shortwave radiation, a common error in general circulation models (GCMs). This result is insensitive to resolution. However, as resolution is increased, precipitation decreases over the ocean and increases over the land. This is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land, which changes the partitioning of moisture fluxes that contribute to precipitation over land from less local to more non-local moisture sources. The results start to converge at 60-km resolution, which underlines the excessive reliance of the mean hydrological cycle on physical parametrization (local unresolved processes) versus model dynamics (large-scale resolved processes) in coarser HadGEM1 and HadGEM3 GCMs. This finding may be valid for other GCMs, showing the necessity to analyze other chains of GCMs that may become available in the future with such a range of horizontal resolutions. Our finding supports the hypothesis that heterogeneity in model parametrization is one of the underlying causes of model disagreement in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises.     

Carbonate Assimilation at Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia: Insights from Crystal Isotope Stratigraphy

Recent basaltic andesite lavas from Merapi volcano contain abundant,complexly zoned, plagioclase phenocrysts, analysed here fortheir petrographic textures, major element composition and Srisotope composition. Anorthite (An) content in individual crystalscan vary by as much as 55 mol% (An_40–95) across internalresorption surfaces with a negative correlation between highAn mol% (>70), MgO wt% and FeO wt%. In situ Sr isotope analysesof zoned plagioclase phenocrysts show that the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratiosof individual zones range from 0·70568 to 0·70627.The upper end of this range is notably more radiogenic thanthe host basaltic andesite whole-rocks (< 0·70574).Crystal zones with the highest An content have the highest ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Srvalues, requiring a source or melt with elevated radiogenicSr, rich in Ca and with lower Mg and Fe. Recent Merapi eruptiverocks contain abundant xenoliths, including metamorphosed volcanoclasticsediment and carbonate country rock (calc-silicate skarns) analysedhere for petrographic textures, mineralogy, major element compositionand Sr isotope composition. The xenoliths contain extremelycalcic plagioclase (up to An₁₀₀) and have whole-rock ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Srratios of 0·70584 to 0·70786. The presence ofthese xenoliths and their mineralogy and geochemistry, coupledwith the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios observed in different zones of individualphenocrysts, indicate that magma–crust interaction atMerapi is potentially more significant than previously thought,as numerous crystal cores in the phenocrysts appear to be inheritedfrom a metamorphosed sedimentary crustal source. This has potentiallysignificant consequences for geochemical mass-balance calculations,volatile saturation and flux and eruptive behaviour at Merapiand similar island arc volcanic systems elsewhere. KEY WORDS: assimilation; isotopes; Merapi; xenolith; calc-silicate     

Mitigation Lessons from the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami

— The July 17, 1998 tsunami killed over 2,100 people, injured at least 800 severely enough to require hospitalization, permanently displaced over 10,000 and disrupted the social and economic framework of the coastal communities of eastern Saundaun Province, Papua New Guinea. Initial response to the disaster was delayed 16 hours because of the failure to communicate the magnitude of the impact outside the affected area. Once the scope of the disaster was known, international assistance was rapid and substantial. Medical teams, supplies, air transport and mobile field hospitals were provided to assist national medical personnel and facilities. Seven care centers were established for the displaced survivors. Nineteen countries and 17 NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) donated money, relief and rebuilding supplies valued at over 6 million US$ in addition to substantial contributions from national recovery funds and the Catholic Diocese. The three Malol villages, two Arop, four Sissano and the Warupu village were permanently abandoned and new villages established inland. Closure of the lagoon and restriction of coastal fishing impacted adjacent villages as well as tsunami survivors. By the second anniversary of the tsunami construction of schools, water and sanitation systems and some roads had been completed. Survivors were provided tools and building supplies to construct new homes, canoes and fishing equipment. Relief and recovery efforts were complicated by coordination difficulties among the many responding agencies and organizations, the disruption of daily routines for both survivors and villages hosting the care centers, and the intrusion of outside aid workers in a region that had been isolated before the disaster. Adaptation to the new village sites has been difficult due to their inland locations that are hotter, more insect-infested and have water and sanitation difficulties. The high number of casualties from the tsunami was the result of several factors: Population concentrated in the area of maximum tsunami impact. Date and time of occurrence. Siting of villages on vulnerable sand spits. Failure of residents to self-evacuate after feeling the earthquake. Substantial delay in mobilizing response. However, further losses were likely reduced because of the rapid deployment of air transport and medical teams, and massive international relief support. The tsunami has affected long-term tsunami mitigation in the Sissano region through the relocation of villages, heightened awareness and education programs. It has also had a significant effect on mitigation in other countries by illuminating the potential dangers of landslide-generated tsunamis and in media coverage of tsunami hazards.     

Seasonal variations in energy exchange and evapotranspiration of an oasis-desert ecotone in an arid region

Knowledge of exchanges of energy and water over terrestrial surfaces is the first step towards understand the ecohydrological mechanisms, particularly in water-limited ecosystems in dryland environments. However, patterns of energy exchange and evapotranspiration (ET) are not well understood in the oasis-desert ecotone, which plays an important role in protecting oases against the threat of desertification in arid regions of northwestern China. Here, the continuous measurements of surface energy fluxes were made using eddy covariance in conjunction with auxiliary measurements for 2 years (2014–2015) in an oasis-desert ecotone mainly covered by phreatophyte shrubs Haloxylon ammodendron, Nitraria tangutorum/sphaerocarpa, and Calligonum mongolicum in arid northwestern China. Based on the collated data for 2 years, statistical analysis on a 30-min time scale indicated that approximately 50% of daytime net radiation (R_n) in the ecotone was dissipated as H on average, and one-third of R_n was consumed by soil heat flux (G). Only 9% of R_n was consumed for latent heat flux (λE), which peaked in summer (21% in 2014 and 16% in 2015), corresponding to the highest rainfall season. Daily mean ET was approximately 1 mm days⁻¹ during the growing season of the shrub species. Accumulated annual ET was 195 and 181 mm in 2014 and 2015, respectively, exceeding the corresponding precipitation (P) by approximately 87 and 77 mm, indicating that groundwater may be another important source of water for ET in the ecotone aside from rainfall. Results within provide valuable insights into the mechanisms responsible for sustaining energy and water balance in the ecotone, a potentially groundwater-dependent ecosystem. These results also offer a foremost ecohydrological implication for water and land resources management and ecotone conservation, such as avoiding heavy groundwater pumping for extensive agricultural irrigation use to sustain groundwater availability for these shrub species in the ecotone.     

“Grey swan” storm surges pose a greater coastal flood hazard than climate change

Ocean Dynamics - In this paper, we show that over the next few decades, the natural variability of mid-latitude storm systems is likely to be a more important driver of coastal extreme sea levels...     

Entanglement of Australian sea lions and New Zealand fur seals in lost fishing gear and other marine debris before and after Government and industry attempts to reduce the problem

In recent years, Australian governments and fishing industry associations have developed guiding principles aimed at reducing the impact of fishing on non-target species and the benthos and increasing community awareness of their efforts. To determine whether they reduced seal entanglement in lost fishing gear and other marine debris, we analysed Australian sea lion and New Zealand fur seal entanglement data collected from Kangaroo Island, South Australia. Contrary to our expectations, we found that entanglement rates did not decrease in recent years. The Australian sea lion entanglement rate (1.3% in 2002) and the New Zealand fur seal entanglement rate (0.9% in 2002) are the third and fourth highest reported for any seal species. Australian sea lions were most frequently entangled in monofilament gillnet that most likely originated from the shark fishery, which operates in the region where sea lions forage--south and east of Kangaroo Island. In contrast, New Zealand fur seals were most commonly entangled in loops of packing tape and trawl net fragments suspected to be from regional rock lobster and trawl fisheries. Based on recent entanglement studies, we estimate that 1478 seals die from entanglement each year in Australia. We discuss remedies such as education programs and government incentives that may reduce entanglements.     

Ammonium Ion, Humic Materials, and Trihalomethane Potential in Northeastern Kansas Ground Waters

Glacial buried-valley aquifers serve as primary sources of potable ground water in northeastern Kansas. A long known problem, however, is that a large percentage of well waters in this region exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) limits for nitrate (NO⁻₃). A detailed study of the hydrogeology and water quality of the buried valleys has confirmed the nitrate problem and led to a recognition that some well waters with low ( 5 mg/l) NO⁻₃ concentrations have anomalous ( 0.5 mg/l) ammonium ion (NH⁺₄) levels, with an NH⁺₄ range from <0.1 to 4.8 mg/l. The extractable NH⁺₄ concentrations in related glacial sediments range up to approximately 75 mg/kg, and the amounts generally increase from an average of 2 mg/kg in the topsoil downward to bedrock. Migration of brines from subjacent Permian or Pennsylvanian bedrock into the unconsolidated sediments locally may cause desorption of NH⁺₄ and an increase in its levels in the associated ground waters. Numerous test holes drilled in the study area showed a black scum on the fluid and cuttings, which may be from buried humic materials. Recently measured total organic carbon (TOC) contents of the ground waters confirm a significant level in some areas, with a range from 0.1 to 2.4 mg/l as C. Chlorination of water with dissolved organics may lead to production of halogenated compounds. Two public-water-supply well waters contained total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels close to the maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 100 /μg/l in chlorinated samples quenched after one week. The presence of NH⁺₄ inhibits the formation of THMs, but it also can give rise to odor and taste problems in the finished water. The inhibition of THM formation by NH⁺₄ is achieved by reactions which compete with the organics for combination with chlorine. These reactions make maintaining appropriate chlorine residuals difficult and also may lead to production of undesirable side products. Present efforts to evaluate the regional water-quality problems are focused in Nemaha County, Kansas.     

Relating Microwave Modulation to Microbreaking Observed in Infrared Imagery

Microwave modulation by swell waves and its relation to microbreaking waves were investigated in an ocean experiment. Simultaneous collocated microwave and infrared (IR) measurements of wind waves and swell on the ocean were made. The normalized radar cross section sigma₀ and the skin temperature T _skin were both modulated by the swell, but with differing phases. In general, sigma₀ maxima occurred on the front face, whereas T _skin maxima occurred on the rear face of the swell. Infrared imagery has shown that swell-induced microbreaking occurred at or near the swell crest and that the resulting warm wakes occurred on the rear face of the wave. When tilt and range modulations are taken into account, the location of microbreaking also accounts for the maximum of sigma₀ occurring on the front face of the swell. Thus, microbreaking waves generated near the crest of low-amplitude swell can produce microwave and IR signatures with the observed phase. The relationship between microwave and IR signals was further emphasized by comparing microwave Doppler spectra with simultaneous IR and visible images of the sea surface from the same location. When small and microscale breaking waves were present, Doppler spectra exhibited characteristics that are similar to those from whitecaps, having peaks with large Doppler offsets and polarization ratios near unity. When no microbreakers were present, Doppler offsets and polarization ratios were much smaller in accordance with a composite surface scattering theory.     

The scramble for the Waste Lands: Tracking colonial legacies,counterinsurgency and international investment through the lens of land laws in Burma/Myanmar

This article traces the revenue category and legal concept of the Waste Land in Burma/Myanmar from its original application by the British colonial apparatus in the nineteenth century, to its later use in tandem with Burma Army counterinsurgent tactics starting in the 1960s, and finally to the 2012 land laws and current issues in international investment. This adaptation of colonial ideas about territorialization in the context of an ongoing civil war offers a new angle for understanding the relationship between military tactics and the political economy of conflict and counterinsurgent strategies which crucially depended on giving local militias—both government and nongovernment—high degrees of autonomy. The recent government changes, including the more civilian representation in parliament and its shift to engage with Western economies, raise questions regarding the future of the military, as well as local autonomy and the rural peasantry's access to land. As increasing numbers of international investors are poised to enter the Myanmar market, this article will revisit notions of land use and appropriation, and finally the role of the army and its changing relationship with Waste Lands.