Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard along transportation lines using historical records

In this paper, a quantitative landslide hazard model is presented for transportation lines, with an example for a road and railroad alignment, in parts of Nilgiri hills in southern India. The data required for the hazard assessment were obtained from historical records available for a 21-year period from 1987 to 2007. A total of 901 landslides from cut slopes along the railroad and road alignment were included in the inventory. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, and run-out distance. To calculate landslide hazard, we estimated the total number of individual landslides per kilometer of the (rail) road for different return periods, based on the relationship between past landslides (recorded in our database) and triggering events. These were multiplied by the probability that the landslides belong to a given magnitude class. This gives the hazard for a given return period expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometer of (rail) road. The relationship between the total number of landslides and the return period was established using a Gumbel distribution model, and the probability of landslide magnitude was obtained from frequency–volume statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that the total number of landslides, from 1- to 50-year return period, varies from 56 to 197 along the railroad and from 14 to 82 along the road. In total, 18 hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The hazard scenarios derived from the model form the basis for future direct and indirect landslide risk analysis along the transportation lines. The model was validated with landslides that occurred in the year 2009.     

Modelling thermal transients from magmatic underplating—an example from the Vøring margin (NE Atlantic)

The thermal impact of several kilometre-thick magmatic underplating in the lower continental crust is studied with analytical and numerical methods. Simple analytical solutions are derived for the thermal transient in the case of an infinite depth below the underplate and also for the case of a finite depth (down to the asthenosphere). It is shown that these solutions lead to simple approximations for when the transient surface heat flow is at its maximum, what the maximum is, and for how long the transient lasts. Even though these solutions assume that the underplate is emplaced instantaneously, they are useful in the interpretation of underplating over finite time spans. A numerical scheme is suggested for the modelling of underplating that handles both short time intervals as well as long intervals. The scheme treats magmatic underplating in a mass and energy conservative manner, and it is compared against the analytical solutions. Finally, the analytical and numerical results for thermal transients are applied to a transect from the Vøring margin (NE Atlantic), with respect to various degrees of early Cenozoic magmatic intrusion. It appears that more than half of the lower crustal body (LCB) in the Vøring margin must be magmatic underplating for the vitrinite reflectance to be substantially higher than for the non-magmatic case, where the LCB is assumed to comprise Caledonian crust.     

Rainfall-induced landslide event of May 2010 in the eastern part of the Czech Republic

More than 150 landslides originated in the eastern part of the Czech Republic (region of the Flysch Outer Western Carpathians—hereinafter, OWC) due to soil saturation caused by antecedent precipitation and long lasting and intensive rainfalls on 16–18 May 2010 (>300 mm as measured by some stations). As a consequence, a multitude of small failures originated 88% of which was smaller than 10⁴ m². Most landslides are characterised as shallow (<10 m) or middle–deep (10–30 m) incipient (rather short travel) landslides, debris slides and soil slips spatially clustered to a geological domain underlain by rather weak thin-bedded flysch and unconsolidated Quaternary deposits. An exception to this is represented by a kilometre-long rockslide (∼2–3 mil m³) affecting tectonically weakened and weathered claystone/mudstone-dominated flysch on the southern slope of Mt. Girová (the Beskydy Mountains). The rockslide is one of the largest long runout landslides in the territory of the Czech Republic activated over the past few decades as it reaches the dimensions of the largest documented Holocene long runout landslides in the Czech part of the OWC. A majority of the May 2010 landslide events developed inside older (Holocene or historic) landslide terrains, which points to their spatial persistency and recurrent nature. In spite of the fact that the May 2010 landslide event was not as destructive as some previous landslide activisation in the OWC region (e.g. July 1997 event), it left many slope failures at the initial stage of their potential future reactivation.     

New geological and geochemical data on the granitoids of the Uspensky massif in Southern Primorye

New geological, petrochemical, mineralogical, and geochemical data are presented on the Uspensky granitoid massif in Southern Primorye. The massif consists of the rocks of two associations: (1) the early association (103.3 ± 2.4 Ma) consisting of garnet-bearing biotite and two-mica granite-leucogranites and (2) the late association (99 ± 2 Ma) represented by biotite (±amphibole) granodiorites, melanogranites, and granites. The granitoids of both associations have moderate potassic alkalinity and elevated alumina contents but differ in the proportions of alumina, calcium, and alkalis. The garnet-bearing granite-leucogranites are characterized by the highest Rb, Th, and U contents and the lowest Sr, Ba, Hf, and Zr contents. The REE distribution patterns have a quasi-symmetric shape and deep Eu minimums. The melanogranites show higher Sr and Ba contents and, as granites, are characterized by asymmetric REE spectrums with an insignificant negative Eu anomaly. The porphyraceous granodiorites and granites are peculiar in their lowered Sr and Ba contents, while the granodiorites have lowered contents of K, REE, Zr, Hf, Th, and U; elevated Nb contents; and a distinctive Eu minimum.     

Seasonal variability in somatic and reproductive investment of the bivalve Scrobicularia plana (da Costa, 1778) along a latitudinal gradient

Monthly investment in soma and gonads in the bivalve Scrobicularia plana is described for three populations along its distributional range: Minho estuary, Portugal; Westerschelde estuary, The Netherlands and Buvika estuary, Norway. Seasonal cycles in body mass (BMI), somatic mass (SMI) and gonadal mass (GMI) indices were observed for all populations. In Portugal, BMI and SMI peaked in mid-autumn, while in The Netherlands both indices were at their highest in mid-spring. Norway showed a different pattern with two distinct peaks: one in mid-autumn and a second peak in spring. GMI reached maximum values in July in Portugal and Netherlands and in June in Norway. Overall, mean BMI and SMI were lower in Portugal while mean GMI was lower in Norway. The spawning period lasted the whole summer in Portugal, but was shorter (only two months) in The Netherlands and Norway. The reproductive investment in The Netherlands was significantly higher than in Portugal and Norway, with the lowest values being observed in Norway. Differences in annual cycles between populations were attributed to environmental factors, namely temperature and food availability. Temperature seems important in shaping the reproductive pattern with more northern populations showing shorter reproductive periods starting later in the year, and a lower reproductive output. In addition, winter water temperatures can explain the lower mean body and somatic mass values observed in Portugal. Food availability influenced the physiological performance of the species with peaks in somatic mass coinciding with phytoplankton blooms. This relation between physiological performance and environmental factors influences S. plana distribution, densities and even survival, with natural consequences on its commercial importance.     

Depositional architecture and sequence stratigraphy of the Karoo basin floor to shelf edge succession, Laingsburg depocentre, South Africa

The Laingsburg depocentre of the SW Karoo Basin, South Africa preserves a well-exposed 1200 m thick succession of upper Permian strata that record the early filling of a basin during an icehouse climate. Uniformly fine-grained sandstones were derived from far-field granitic sources, possibly in Patagonia, although the coeval staging and delivery systems are not preserved. Early condensed shallow marine deposits are overlain by distal basin plain siltstone-prone turbidites and volcanic ashes. An order of magnitude increase in siliciclastic input to the basin plain is represented by up to 270 m of siltstone with thin sandstone turbidites (Vischkuil Formation). The upper Vischkuil Formation comprises three depositional sequences, each bounded by a regionally developed zone of soft sediment deformation and associated 20-45 m thick debrite that represent the initiation of a major sand delivery system. The overlying 300 m thick sandy basin-floor fan system (Unit A) is divisible into three composite sequences arranged in a progradational-aggradational-retrogradational stacking pattern, followed by up to 40 m of basin-wide hemipelagic claystone. This claystone contains Interfan A/B, a distributive lobe system that lies 10 m beneath Unit B, a sandstone-dominated succession that averages 150 m thickness and is interpreted to represent a toe of slope channelized lobe system. Unit B and the A/B interfan together comprise 4 depositional sequences in a composite sequence with an overall basinward-stepping stacking pattern, overlain by 30 m of hemipelagic claystone. The overlying 400 m thick submarine slope succession (Fort Brown Formation) is characterized by 10-120 m thick sand-prone to heterolithic packages separated by 30-70 m thick claystone units. On the largest scale the slope stratigraphy is defined by two major cycles interpreted as composite sequence sets. The lower cycle comprises lithostratigraphic Units B/C, C and D while the upper cycle includes lithostratigraphic Units D/E, E and F. In each case a sandy basal composite sequence is represented by an intraslope lobe (Units B/C and D/E respectively). The second composite sequence in each cycle (Units C and E respectively) is characterized by slope channel-levee systems with distributive lobes 20-30 km down dip. The uppermost composite sequence in each cycle (Units D and F respectively) are characterised by deeply entrenched slope valley systems. Most composite sequences comprise three sequences separated by thin (<5 m thick) claystones. Architectural style is similar at individual sequence scale for comparable positions within each composite sequence set and each composite sequence. The main control on stratigraphic development is interpreted as late icehouse glacio-eustasy but along-strike changes associated with changing shelf edge delivery systems and variable bathymetry due to differential substrate compaction complicate the resultant stratigraphy.     

Decadal-scale morphologic variability of managed coastal dunes

Coastal dunes located in densely populated areas provide various services to man, such as protection against flooding during storm surges. Since coastal dunes are dynamic features, the level of protection they provide varies in time. Therefore, management interventions are often undertaken to stabilize the dunes to reduce the natural variability. This study provides quantitative insight into the morphologic variability of managed foredunes over time spans of decades. We used Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on a 45 year data set of annually surveyed dune profiles along 97 km of the Netherlands' coast. On average, 70% of the deviations from the time-averaged profiles could be related to cross-shore coherent changes in foredune shape as mapped onto EOF 1. These changes are often largely due to morphologic developments occurring near the dunefoot. Changes in dune shape were coherent over time as well as in the longshore direction albeit with different characteristic patterns along the coast. These results show that managed foredunes may still exhibit considerable morphologic variability that should not be ignored in long-term dune safety assessment studies.     

Trust relationships between fishers and government: New challenges for the co-management arrangements in the Dutch flatfish industry

Until the 1990s fisheries were largely managed by the state. Since then, Dutch government and the sector increasingly recognized that a fishing industry cannot be managed effectively without the cooperation and participation of fishers to formulate policy and to implement and enforce laws and regulations. As a result, in the nineties, the existing neo-corporatist arrangement was replaced by a co-management system in the Dutch flatfish fishery. Co-management is often seen as leading to greater procedural legitimacy and subsequently compliance. However, constructing an effective co-management arrangement is not only a matter of building institutions but also a matter of building trust relations between the government and industry. Institutional arrangements such as co-management can contribute to these trust building processes; however, a too strong reliance on institutional arrangements can lead to distrust when new challenges are being faced and institutional arrangements fail to adapt to these changes.     

The role of international environmental instruments in enhancing transboundary marine protected areas: An approach in East Africa

The increasing degradation of marine ecosystems has led to multiple calls for greater protection through the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). If created at the ecosystem or ecoregion level, MPAs will likely straddle maritime boundaries and therefore necessitate international cooperation. International environmental law and international law of the sea may facilitate cooperation between States in creating transboundary MPAs. The extent to which this body of law is actually or potentially useful for the establishment of transboundary MPAs is examined in the context of the East African Marine Ecoregion, focusing on Mozambique, South Africa, and Tanzania. A general survey and assessment of the applicable global, regional, and bilateral instruments in relation to the three States is conducted. Although some global instruments are relevant in the East African context, regional and bilateral instruments are more conducive to the establishment of transboundary MPAs. The article concludes that although a trilateral agreement between Mozambique, South Africa, and Tanzania would be an ideal vehicle for the establishment of a transboundary network of MPAs addressing both national and ecoregional conservation interests, a separate solution at each border will be the first step towards this goal.