Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

Electrical structure of the upper mantle beneath Central Europe: Results of the CEMES project

In the years 2001–2003, we accomplished the experimental phase of the project CEMES by collecting long-period magnetotelluric data at positions of eleven permanent geomagnetic observatories situated within few hundreds kilometers along the south-west margin of the East European Craton. Five teams were engaged in estimating independently the magnetotelluric responses by using different data processing procedures. The conductance distributions at the depths of the upper mantle have been derived individually beneath each observatory. By averaging the individual cross-sections, we have designed the final model of the geoelectrical structure of the upper mantle beneath the CEMES region. The results indicate systematic trends in the deep electrical structure of the two European tectonic plates and give evidence that the electrical structure of the upper mantle differs between the East European Craton and the Phanerozoic plate of west Europe, with a separating transition zone that generally coincides with the Trans-European Suture Zone.     

Arguments for ionic nature of the Carpathian electric conductivity anomaly

This publication is a contribution to discussion on the geometry and petrography of the rock complex responsible for the Carpathian conductivity anomaly. We analysed arguments showing that this anomaly is caused by induction in the sedimentary basin, and make a critical review of various data to find out whether the good conductivity is connected with a rock complex containing graphite or mineralized water. We conclude that a more likely mechanism is the ionic one, i.e., the existence of fluids, although a final decision can only be made on the basis of deep drillings.     

首都圈地区现今地壳垂直形变特征

利用首都圈地区1998、2001、2005、2007年151期精密水准复测资料,分析该区近十年来地壳垂直形变状态与动态特征。结果表明,形变场以继承性运动为主,即山区上升、盆地及平原下降。值得注意的是首都圈西部地区等值线分布密集有序,有些象限图形特征,东西升,南北降,其最大差值为10mm／a,可能预示该区应力场处于逐步积累及有所加强的势态,虽然异常形变数值及所涉面积均较小,但仍需跟踪关注。     

Reconstruction of paleocoastlines for the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum

The range of relative sea level rise in the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum was over 100 m. As a result, lowland regions including the Northeast Vietnam coast, Beibu Gulf, and South China coast experienced an evolution from land to sea. Based on the principle of reconstructing paleogeography and using recent digital elevation model, relative sea level curves, and sediment accumulation data, this paper presents a series of paleogeographic scenarios back to 20 cal. ka BP for the northwestern South China Sea. The scenarios demonstrate the entire process of coastline changes for the area of interest. During the late glacial period from 20 to 15 cal. ka BP, coastline slowly retreated, causing a land loss of only 1×10⁴ km², and thus the land-sea distribution remained nearly unchanged. Later in 15–10 cal. ka BP coastline rapidly retreated and area of land loss was up to 24×10⁴km², causing lowlands around Northeast Vietnam and South China soon to be underwater. Coastline retreat continued quite rapidly during the early Holocene. From 10 to 6 cal. ka BP land area had decreased by 9×10⁴km², and during that process the Qiongzhou Strait completely opened up. Since the mid Holocene, main controls on coastline change are from vertical crustal movements and sedimentation. Transgression was surpassed by regression, resulting in a land accretion of about 10×10⁴km². Supported by Key Laboratory of Marginal Sea Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MSGL0711), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 04001309) and Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MGE2007KG04)     

Data reporting norms for 40Ar/39Ar geochronology

Data reported in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology studies are commonly insufficient to allow computation of ages. This deficiency renders it difficult to compare ages based on different standards or constants, and often hinders critical evaluation of the results. Herein are presented an enumeration of the data that should be reported in all ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar studies, including a discussion in support of these requirements. The minimum required data are identified and distinguished from parameters that are useful but may be derived from them by calculation. Finally, recommendations are made for metadata needed to document age calculations (e.g., from age spectrum or isochron analyses).     

Evaluation of cosmogenic 3He and 21Ne production rates in olivine and pyroxene from two Pleistocene basalt flows,western Grand Canyon,AZ, USA

Combining cosmogenic ³He and ²¹Ne (³He_c and ²¹Ne_c) measurements on both pyroxene and olivine from the Pleistocene Bar Ten flows (85–107 ka) greatly increases our ability to evaluate the accuracy of ³He_c and ²¹Ne_c production rates and, therefore, ³He_c and ²¹Ne_c surface exposure ages. Comparison of ³He_c and ²¹Ne_c age-pairs yielded by experimentally determined production rates and composition-based model calculations indicates that the former give more accurate surface exposure ages than the latter in this study. However, experimental production rates should be adjusted to the composition of the minerals being analyzed to obtain the best agreement between ³He_c and ²¹Ne_c ages for any given sample. ²¹Ne_c/³He_c values are 0.400 ± 0.029 and 0.204 ± 0.014 for olivine and pyroxene, respectively, in Bar Ten lava flows, in agreement with previously published values, and indicate that ²¹Ne_c/³He_c in olivine and pyroxene is not affected by erosion and remains constant with latitude, elevation, and time (up to 10 Myr). Samples with ²¹Ne_c/³He_c that do not agree with these values may indicate the presence of non-cosmogenic helium and/or neon. The neon three-isotope diagram can also indicate whether or not all excess neon in mineral separates comes from cosmogenic sources. An error-weighted regression for olivine defines a spallation line [y = (1.033 ± 0.031)x + (0.09876 ± 0.00033)], which is indistinguishable from that for pyroxene (Schäfer et al., 1999). We have derived a production rate of 25 ± 8 at/g/yr for ²¹Ne_c in clinopyroxene (En_43–44) based on the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of the upper Bar Ten flow. Our study indicates that the production rate of ²¹Ne_c in olivine may be slightly higher than previously determined. Cosmogenic ³He and ²¹Ne remain extremely useful, particularly when paired, in determining accurate eruption ages of young olivine- and pyroxene-rich basaltic lava flows.     

Azimuthal anisotropy of the Pg-wave velocity in hypocentral volumes of NW Croatia

Based on a large set of arrival times of the Pg phase reported by local and regional stations, we estimate azimuthal anisotropy of the Pg-wave velocity in focal volumes of the upper crust in NW Croatia. The method is based on analyses of the azimuthal dependence of ratios of cumulative differences of arrival times and travel paths between foci of earthquake pairs, computed for rays propagating within narrow azimuthal windows. The results clearly indicate the presence of anisotropy of 3.3% with the direction of fast velocity (approximately NNE-SSW) coinciding with the direction of the maximum tectonic pressure as revealed by 23 available focal mechanisms and previous geological investigations. Although a large part of observed anisotropy can be explained assuming that focal volumes are pervaded by a system of vertical extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) cracks aligned under the influence of local tectonic stress field, there is indication that — to a smaller extent — some role was also played by alignment of structural features in the region.     

Dating of Late Pleistocene terrace deposits of the River Rhine using Uranium series and luminescence methods: Potential and limitations

Uranium-series dating of pedogenic carbonate crusts from fluvial gravels is tested using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) ages as references. OSL dating yielded ages of 30–15 ka and 13–11 ka, which correlate with the cold periods of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Younger Dryas. These ages are internally coherent and consistent with the geological background and are thus regarded as reliable. Most of the U/Th results scatter widely in the ²³⁰Th/²³²Th vs. ²³⁴U/²³²Th isochron diagram, making regression unrealistic. Semiquantitative age estimates from the data were found to be mostly older than the OSL ages and the geological context. It is suggested that a heterogeneous initial ²³⁰Th input, not relatable to a detrital component, is responsible for the observed discrepancies. This input may be due to bacterial activities and Th transport on organic colloids. It appears necessary to avoid samples where bacteria could have contributed to carbonate precipitation. Further, the relative importance of this problem decreases with sample age, so that U/Th dating of sinters is expected to be more reliable in the >100 ka age range.     

Age and nature of eclogites in the Huwan shear zone,and the multi-stage evolution of the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen,central China

In situ LA-ICPMS U-Pb, trace element, and Hf isotope data in zircon demonstrate a Carboniferous age for eclogite-facies metamorphism in Siluro-Devonian protoliths in the Huwan shear zone, Dabie Mountains, Central China. This age contrasts with the more prevailing Triassic age for high- to ultrahigh pressure (HP to UHP) metamorphism in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen. Metamorphic zircon in two eclogite samples from Sujiahe is characterized by low Th/U ratios, small negative Eu anomalies, flat HREE patterns, and low ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios. These geochemical signatures suggest that the zircon crystallized in the presence of garnet and in the absence of plagioclase feldspar. Furthermore, temperatures of ~ 655 and ~ 638 °C, calculated using the Ti content of zircon, are consistent with their formation during eclogite-facies metamorphism. The weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 309 ± 4 Ma (2δ) for this zircon improves previous age estimates for eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Huwan shear zone, ranging from 420 to 220 Ma. Metamorphic zircon from one eclogite sample from Hujiawan, most likely formed during prograde metamorphism, yields an equivalent age estimate of 312 ± 11 Ma. Magmatic zircon cores in the three samples yield ages for the magmatic protoliths of the eclogites ranging from 420 ± 7 to 406 ± 5 Ma, and post-dating the middle Paleozoic collision of the North China and the Qinling terrain. The zircon crystals in the three eclogite samples display a large variation of ε_Hf (t) values of ? 4.9 to 21.3. The metamorphic zircon overgrowths show the same range of ε_Hf (t) values as those of the inherited magmatic crystal interiors. This suggests that the metamorphic zircon overgrowths may have formed by dissolution-reprecipitation of pre-existing magmatic zircon thereby preserving their original Hf isotopic composition. The high ε_Hf (t) values suggest that the protoliths were derived from depleted mantle sources, most likely Paleotethyan oceanic crust; while the low ε_Hf (t) values are attributed to crustal contamination. Some eclogites in the Huwan shear zone have a distinctive signature of continental crust most probably derived from the Yangtze Craton. The coexistence of Paleozoic oceanic crust and Neoproterozoic continental crust with similar metamorphic ages in the Huwan shear zone implies that Paleozoic Paleotethyan oceanic crust was produced within a marginal basin of the northern Yangtze Craton. The opening of the Paleo-Tethyan ocean was slightly younger than the collision of the North China Craton and the Qinling terrain during the Late Paleozoic in the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogen. Subduction of the Paleo-Tethyan oceanic crust and associated continental basement resulted in the 309 ± 2 Ma (2σ) eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Huwan shear zone. The subsequent Triassic continent-continent collision led to the final coalescence of the Yangtze and Sino-Korean cratons. Amalgamation of the Yangtze and North China cratons was, therefore, a multistage process extending over at least 200 Ma.