On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections

Using observations covering the last 128 years we show that apparent changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections can be explained by chance and stem from sampling variability. This result is backed by experiments in which an atmosphere model is driven by 123 years of observed sea surface temperature. The possibility of ENSO teleconnection changes in a warming climate is further investigated using coupled GCMs driven by past and projected future greenhouse gas concentrations. These runs do not exclude physical changes in the teleconnection strength but do not agree on their magnitude and location. If existing at all, changes in the strength of ENSO teleconnection, other than obtained by chance, are small and will only be detectable on centennial time scales.     

On the Intensity Thresholds of the Network and Plage Regions

A period of minimum solar activity in April and May 1996 was used to analyze full-disk CaK spectroheliograms with the aim of deriving the intensity thresholds of the quiet network and the plages by applying the so-called inflexion point method. The average network intensity threshold is found to be influenced mainly by the seeing, whereas the average plage threshold shows an increasing trend from disk center towards the solar limb. Both parameters are compared with the results of other authors.     

Line emission from accretion discs around black holes: the analytic approach

The broad X-ray iron line observed in many active galactic nuclei spectra is thought to originate from the accretion disc surrounding the putative supermassive black hole. We show here how to perform the analytical integration of the geodesic equations that describe the photon trajectories in the general case of a rotating black hole (Kerr metric), in order to write a fast and efficient numerical code for modelling emission line profiles from accretion discs.     

A Discussion of IGS Solutions and Their Impact on Geodetic and Geophysical Applications

The International Association of Geodesy officially established the International GPS Service (IGS) on Janaury 1, 1994. Its prime objective is to provide support and a rerefence system for a wide variety of scientific and practical applications involving GPS. To fulfill its role the IGS also generates, in addition to its fundamental products (orbital/staion positions and consistent Earth orientation parameters), additional reference-system products providing the necessary infrastructure, standards, and means of calibrations for timing and various atmospheric applications of GPS. The generation and efficient application of IGS products and their impact on a number of positioning and atmospheric applications, including low earth orbit satellites, is reviewed and discussed. @ 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Singularity and Nonnormality in the Classification of Compositional Data

Geologists may want to classify compositional data and express the classification as a map. Regionalized classification is a tool that can be used for this purpose, but it incorporates discriminant analysis, which requires the computation and inversion of a covariance matrix. Covariance matrices of compositional data always will be singular (noninvertible) because of the unit-sum constraint. Fortunately, discriminant analyses can be calculated using a pseudo-inverse of the singular covariance matrix; this is done automatically by some statistical packages such as SAS. Granulometric data from the Darss Sill region of the Baltic Sea is used to explore how the pseudo-inversion procedure influences discriminant analysis results, comparing the algorithm used by SAS to the more conventional Moore–Penrose algorithm. Logratio transforms have been recommended to overcome problems associated with analysis of compositional data, including singularity. A regionalized classification of the Darss Sill data after logratio transformation is different only slightly from one based on raw granulometric data, suggesting that closure problems do not influence severely regionalized classification of compositional data.     

Microclimatic characterization of a karstic cave: human impact on microenvironmental parameters of a prehistoric rock art cave (Candamo Cave, northern Spain)

The Candamo Cave contains an important group of paleolithic paintings which have been seriously deteriorated due to mass tourism. In this work, an analysis was carried out of different climatic parameters (CO₂, temperature, humidity, ²²²Rn) during annual cycles with the cave closed to the public and during an experimental period of controlled visits. The effect of visits on the geochemical characteristics of karstic water was also analyzed together with the cave ventilation. The natural variations in the cave air CO₂ were above 3000 ppm, the increase produced through visits was only 100–110 ppm and since the humidity is almost permanently at saturation point, the critical parameter which limits the visitor capacity becomes air temperature. The temperature changes during the annual cycle are of the order of 1  °C in the external part and less than 0.5  °C in the internal part of the cave and a maximum increase of 0.13  °C was observed during the period of the visits. The ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentration minimums in the summer period (July–October) show that this is the most propitious time for visits, since the greatest ventilation is produced in the cave at this time and, therefore, the greatest capacity for recovery. The geochemistry of the water, on the other hand, indicated that this is the period of the year in which processes of wall corrosion can be most easily introduced, although this would be of limited magnitude. The visitor capacity calculated was 29 visitors/day. Received: 29 August 1996 · Accepted: 23 June 1997     

Seasonal acceleration of the rate of total ozone decreases over Central Europe: impact of tropopause height changes

Total ozone data from some European stations have been analyzed to detect the ozone decrease in different seasons from 1979 to 1995. The differences between the winter–spring (December–March) and summer (May–August) total ozone means have decreased distinctly during the last three decades, by 10 Dobson Units per decade, showing that the winter–spring decrease is significantly stronger than the summer one. Applying a multiple regression model to the monthly means of tropopause height, positive trends in the summer and winter–spring seasons have been found, especially since 1979. This corresponds to the accelerating ozone decrease then. The possibility of using tropopause height variations as an indicator of dynamical variability in the total ozone trend model is discussed. The total ozone response to the changes of tropopause height seems to be independent of timescale over which the tropopause-total ozone relationship has been examined (month-to-month, interannual). The total ozone trends, as well as the accelerated rate of ozone decrease since 1979 in the winter–spring and summer seasons, respectively, are reduced by about 0.5–1% per decade after inclusion of the tropopause height effect on the ozone model.