Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

The constrained normal form algorithm

This paper describes an algorithm which brings a regularizable polynomial perturbation of a three degree of freedom Kepler problem into a normal form which Poisson commutes with the Kepler Hamiltonian. We illustrate the alogrithm with an example: the quadratic Zeeman effect. For other applications of this algorithm see [1],[4], and [5]. The authors have written a program in MAPLE which implements the constrained normal form.     

The birthplaces of active regions and X-ray bright points

A comparison of soft X-ray pictures of the Sun (S-054 experiment of Skylab) with K-line spectroheliograms (Mount Wilson) shows that the X-ray bright points tend to emerge randomly throughout the Ca network pattern. However, all those bright points that developed into active regions emerged at the boundaries of network cells. This suggests that the magnetic flux of active regions comes from greater depths in the convection zone than the shallow flux that gives rise to the random emergence of bright points.Also Physics Department, C-011, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, Calif., U.S.A.     

What should be observed on the sun

Three problems are emphasized in particular: the preflare magnetic field configuration, velocity fields, and the nature of acceleration processes in flares. It is concluded that what we need most urgently are high-resolution hard X-ray, soft X-ray, and EUV-pictures, coronal spectra, and magnetograms with high resolution both in space and time. A space-shuttle equipped with instrumentation of this kind would contribute significantly to our knowledge of the flare process.     

Changes of the profiles of spectral lines due to mass transfer in close binaries

In this paper, the model of the ring envelope round the primary component and the stream of the gaseous mass flowing from the secondary component to the primary is constructed on the basis of theoretical computations concerning the exchange of the mass between the components of the binary. The paper studies the influence of the gaseous mass on the profiles of spectral lines before and after occultation; the influence of the stream on the profile in case the secondary is near elongation, is also investigated. The line profiles obtained by numerical computations show that their changes caused by outflowing mass should be well detectable from spectrograms taken at particular phase of the binary. Changes in the lines may influence the measurement of radial velocities. The method for distinguishing the influence of the stream from the influence of the ring is described.     

Stratigraphic analysis and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association

The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association between two sequences of nominal data is investigated under the assumption of independent random sampling from a multinomial distribution slightly modified to suit geological applications. This modification is due to merging consecutive strata of the same rock type into one lithological unit, and can be described by a simple Markov chain. A distinction is made between the case in which the theoretical frequencies are known, and the situation where these have to be estimated from the observed data.     

Special Contributions: Pictorial Series of the Manifestations of the Dynamics of the Earth: 5. Kamchatka,Its Early Cartography and Recent Climate Changes

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica -     

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.