Möglichkeiten der photometrischen Untersuchung von Kugelhaufen mittels photographischer Äquidensiten

A method of estimating the surface-brightness of globular cluster with equidensity curves is described. (Russian abstract)     

Kampfer ein Rauschgift für Fische

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Turbidity and suspended sediment dynamics in small catchments in the Nepal Middle Hills

The Himalayan environment has, until recently, been perceived to be in a critical state of environmental decline, resulting from rapid population growth and associated land‐use change. Recent research, however, has emphasized the difficulty of developing an objective appraisal of the state of the environment in a region where empirical data are scarce and unstructured and where an understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of natural environmental processes remains highly uncertain. This paper presents results from an intensive three‐year project designed to help address the regional empirical deficit, establish detailed baseline environmental data and to gain an insight into storm period and seasonal suspended sediment dynamics. The instrumentation, calibration and analysis of high‐frequency infrared turbidimetric records from a number of small subcatchments in the Nepal Middle Hills are reported. Storm period and seasonal variation in turbidity and suspended sediment are examined and hysteresis patterns explored and explained. A variety of methods to estimate seasonal suspended sediment yield in a mixed land‐use catchment are examined, and found to vary by up to a factor of five. Despite the inherent uncertainty, all estimates of catchment sediment yield are found to be high with respect to erosion plot studies from the local area, and this suggests the importance of riparian and channel erosion as major sediment sources, a finding consistent with other regional studies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solubility of alumina in orthopyroxene plus spinel as a geobarometer in complex systems. Applications to spinel-bearing alpine-type peridotites

The addition of Fe and Cr to the simple system MgO-SiO₂-Al₂O₃ markedly affects the activities of phases involved in the equilibrium

Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.