Proglacial Sediment—Landform Associations of a Polythermal Glacier: Storglaciären, Northern Sweden

Mapping and laboratory analysis of the sediment—landform associations in the proglacial area of polythermal Storglaciären, Tarfala, northern Sweden, reveal six distinct lithofacies. Sandy gravel, silty gravel, massive sand and silty sand are interpreted as glaciofluvial in origin. A variable, pervasively deformed to massive clast‐rich sandy diamicton is interpreted as the product of an actively deforming subglacial till layer. Massive block gravels, comprising two distinctive moraine ridges, reflect supraglacial sedimentation and ice‐marginal and subglacial reworking of heterogeneous proglacial sediments during the Little Ice Age and an earlier more extensive advance. Visual estimation of the relative abundance of these lithofacies suggests that the sandy gravel lithofacies is of the most volumetric importance, followed by the diamicton and block gravels. Sedimentological analysis suggests that the role of a deforming basal till layer has been the dominant factor controlling glacier flow throughout the Little Ice Age, punctuated by shorter (warmer and wetter climatic) periods where high water pressures may have played a more important role. These results contribute to the database that facilitates discrimination of past glacier thermal regimes and dynamics in areas that are no longer glacierized, as well as older glaciations in the geological record.     

Imposing Age and Spatial Structures on Inadequate Migration‐Flow Datasets*

With the elimination of the long‐form questionnaire from future decennial censuses and its replacement by a much smaller continuous monthly sampling survey (the American Community Survey), students of territorial mobility may find it necessary to deal with inadequate, missing, or inaccurate sample data on migration by adopting an approach that “improves” such data using information from different geographical areas, time periods, and data sources. We develop such an approach in this article and illustrate it with interregional migration flow data reported by the U.S. decennial censuses of 1980 and 1990 and by the 1985 Current Population Survey.     

Deep submarine pyroclastic eruptions: theory and predicted landforms and deposits

Submarine pyroclastic eruptions at depths greater than a few hundred meters are generally considered to be rare or absent because the pressure of the overlying water column is sufficient to suppress juvenile gas exsolution so that magmatic disruption and pyroclastic activity do not occur. Consideration of detailed models of the ascent and eruption of magma in a range of sea floor environments shows, however, that significant pyroclastic activity can occur even at depths in excess of 3000 m. In order to document and illustrate the full range of submarine eruption styles, we model several possible scenarios for the ascent and eruption of magma feeding submarine eruptions: (1) no gas exsolution; (2) gas exsolution but no magma disruption; (3) gas exsolution, magma disruption, and hawaiian-style fountaining; (4) volatile content builds up in the magma reservoir leading to hawaiian eruptions resulting from foam collapse; (5) magma volatile content insufficient to cause fragmentation normally but low rise speed results in strombolian activity; and (6) volatile content builds up in the top of a dike leading to vulcanian eruptions. We also examine the role of bulk-interaction steam explosivity and contact-surface steam explosivity as processes contributing to volcaniclastic formation in these environments. We concur with most earlier workers that for magma compositions typical of spreading centers and their vicinities, the most likely circumstance is the quiet effusion of magma with minor gas exsolution, and the production of somewhat vesicular pillow lavas or sheet flows, depending on effusion rate. The amounts by which magma would overshoot the vent in these types of eruptions would be insufficient to cause any magma disruption. The most likely mechanism of production of pyroclastic deposits in this environment is strombolian activity, due to the localized concentration of volatiles in magma that has a low rise rate; magmatic gas collects by bubble coalescence, and ascends in large isolated bubbles which disrupt the magma surface in the vent, producing localized blocks, bombs, and pyroclastic deposits. Another possible mode of occurrence of pyroclastic deposits results from vulcanian eruptions; these deposits, being characterized by the dominance of angular blocks of country rocks deposited in the vicinity of a crater, should be easily distinguishable from strombolian and hawaiian eruptions. However, we stress that a special case of the hawaiian eruption style is likely to occur in the submarine environment if magmatic gas buildup occurs in a magma reservoir by the upward drift of gas bubbles. In this case, a layer of foam will build up at the top of the reservoir in a sufficient concentration to exceed the volatile content necessary for disruption and hawaiian-style activity; the deposits and landforms are predicted to be somewhat different from those of a typical primary magmatic volatile-induced hawaiian eruption. Specifically, typical pyroclast sizes might be smaller; fountain heights may exceed those expected for the purely magmatic hawaiian case; cooling of descending pyroclasts would be more efficient, leading to different types of proximal deposits; and runout distances for density flows would be greater, potentially leading to submarine pyroclastic deposits surrounding vents out to distances of tens of meters to a kilometer. In addition, flows emerging after the evacuation of the foam layer would tend to be very depleted in volatiles, and thus extremely poor in vesicles relative to typical flows associated with hawaiian-style eruptions in the primary magmatic gas case. We examine several cases of reported submarine volcaniclastic deposits found at depths as great as 3000 m and conclude that submarine hawaiian and strombolian eruptions are much more common than previously suspected at mid-ocean ridges. Furthermore, the latter stages of development of volcanic edifices (seamounts) formed in submarine environments are excellent candidates for a wide range of submarine pyroclastic activity due not just to the effects of decreasing water depth, but also to: (1) the presence of a summit magma reservoir, which favors the buildup of magmatic foams (enhancing hawaiian-style activity) and episodic dike emplacement (which favors strombolian-style eruptions); and (2) the common occurrence of alkalic basalts, the CO₂ contents of which favor submarine explosive eruptions at depths greater than tholeiitic basalts. These models and predictions can be tested with future sampling and analysis programs and we provide a checklist of key observations to help distinguish among the eruption styles.     

Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.