Evidence of Self‐Organized Criticality in riverbank mass failures: a matter of perspective?

A growing body of field, theoretical and numerical modelling studies suggests that predicting river response to even major changes in input variables is difficult. Rivers are seen to adjust rapidly and variably through time and space as well as changing independently of major driving variables. Concepts such as Self‐Organized Criticality (SOC) are considered to better reflect the complex interactions and adjustments occurring in systems than traditional approaches of cause and effect. This study tests the hypothesis that riverbank mass failures which occurred both prior to, and during, an extreme flood event in southeast Queensland (SEQ) in 2011 are a manifestation of SOC. Each wet‐flow failure is somewhat analogous to the ‘avalanche’ described in the initial sand‐pile experiments of Bak et al. (Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4), 381–384) and, due to the use of multitemporal LiDAR, the time period of instability can be effectively constrained to that surrounding the flood event. The data is examined with respect to the key factors thought to be significant in evaluating the existence of SOC including; non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events within the system; an inverse power‐law relation between the magnitude and frequency of the events; the existence of a critical state to which the system readjusts after a disturbance; the existence of a cascading processes mechanism by which the same process can initiate both low‐magnitude and high‐magnitude events. While there was a significant change in the frequency of mass failures pre‐ and post‐flood, suggesting non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events, the data did not fit an inverse power‐law within acceptable probability and other models were found to fit the data better. Likewise, determining a single ‘critical’ state is problematic when a variety of feedbacks and multiple modes of adjustment are likely to have operated throughout this high magnitude event. Overall, the extent to which the data supports a self‐organized critical state is variable and highly dependent upon inferential arguments. Investigating the existence of SOC, however, provided results and insights that are useful to the management and future prediction of these features. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Compliance costs and the small fisher: A study of exiters from the New Zealand fishery

Over 3000 predominantly small-scale fishers have exited the New Zealand's quota management system (QMS) between its inception in 1986 and 2000. This study, based on the Ministry of Fisheries database and a questionnaire sent to the exiters, establishes that compliance costs in general, and those specifically related to the QMS, were one of the most consistent reasons for exit. Uncertainty about future QMS policy and the high cost of quota were also significant factors. It appears that the small fishers’ perception of high compliance cost can be supported by industry data.     

Amino acids in the Murchison meteorite

Continued investigation of the Murchison meteorite by gas chromatography combined with mass spectrometry has led to the characterization of at least 17 amino acids in addition to the 18 identified in earlier work. The total population consists of a wide variety of linear and cyclic difunctional and polyfunctional amino acids, of which the linear difunctional amino acids show a general decrease in concentration as the number of carbon atoms in the amino acid molecule increases. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the amino acids are present as the result of an extraterrestrial, abiotic synthesis.     

Sedimentology of the continental end‐Permian extinction event in the Sydney Basin,eastern Australia

Upper Permian to Lower Triassic coastal plain successions of the Sydney Basin in eastern Australia have been investigated in outcrop and continuous drillcores. The purpose of the investigation is to provide an assessment of palaeoenvironmental change at high southern palaeolatitudes in a continental margin context for the late Permian (Lopingian), across the end‐Permian Extinction interval, and into the Early Triassic. These basins were affected by explosive volcanic eruptions during the late Permian and, to a much lesser extent, during the Early Triassic, allowing high‐resolution age determination on the numerous tuff horizons. Palaeobotanical and radiogenic isotope data indicate that the end‐Permian Extinction occurs at the top of the uppermost coal bed, and the Permo‐Triassic boundary either within an immediately overlying mudrock succession or within a succeeding channel sandstone body, depending on locality due to lateral variation. Late Permian depositional environments were initially (during the Wuchiapingian) shallow marine and deltaic, but coastal plain fluvial environments with extensive coal‐forming mires became progressively established during the early late Permian, reflected in numerous preserved coal seams. The fluvial style of coastal plain channel deposits varies geographically. However, apart from the loss of peat‐forming mires, no significant long‐term change in depositional style (grain size, sediment‐body architecture, or sediment dispersal direction) was noted across the end‐Permian Extinction (pinpointed by turnover of the palaeoflora). There is no evidence for immediate aridification across the boundary despite a loss of coal from these successions. Rather, the end‐Permian Extinction marks the base of a long‐term, progressive trend towards better‐drained alluvial conditions into the Early Triassic. Indeed, the floral turnover was immediately followed by a flooding event in basinal depocentres, following which fluvial systems similar to those active prior to the end‐Permian Extinction were re‐established. The age of the floral extinction is constrained to 252.54 ± 0.08 to 252.10 ± 0.06 Ma by a suite of new Chemical Abrasion Isotope Dilution Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry U‐Pb ages on zircon grains. Another new age indicates that the return to fluvial sedimentation similar to that before the end‐Permian Extinction occurred in the basal Triassic (prior to 251.51 ± 0.14 Ma). The character of the surface separating coal‐bearing pre‐end‐Permian Extinction from coal‐barren post‐end‐Permian Extinction strata varies across the basins. In basin‐central locations, the contact varies from disconformable, where a fluvial channel body has cut down to the level of the top coal, to conformable where the top coal is overlain by mudrocks and interbedded sandstone–siltstone facies. In basin‐marginal locations, however, the contact is a pronounced erosional disconformity with coarse‐grained alluvial facies overlying older Permian rocks. There is no evidence that the contact is everywhere a disconformity or unconformity.     

Effect of thickness of planar nozzles on erosion depth of levee soils subjected to plunging water

In this study, the effect of the thickness of a planar jet on the erosion depth when the jet impinges on a surface composed of cohesive soil was analytically and numerically evaluated. The results showed that the erosion depth was practically independent of the nozzle thickness for erosion depths shallower than the potential core length (i.e. the region of the jet in which the central flow velocity is the same as the nozzle velocity). The relation between nozzle thickness and erosion depth was non-linear with continuously variable slope for erosion depths deeper than the potential core length. Finally, the relation was approximately linear when the erosion depth converged to the equilibrium erosion depth. The findings of this study indicate that direct and fast prediction of the erosion depth in the field is possible using the data from a small scale soil erosion test with similar flow velocities.     

Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation,sea-level rise,and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation

Salt marshes accrete both organic and inorganic sediments. Here we present analytical and numerical models of salt marsh sedimentation that, in addition to capturing inorganic processes, explicitly account for above- and belowground organic processes including root growth and decay of organic carbon. The analytical model is used to examine the bias introduced by organic processes into proxy records of sedimentation, namely ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb. We find that accretion rates estimated using ²¹⁰Pb will be less than accretion rates estimated using the ¹³⁷Cs peak in steadily accreting marshes if (1) carbon decay is significant and (2) data for ²¹⁰Pb extend below the ¹³⁷Cs peak. The numerical model expands upon the analytical model by including belowground processes such as compaction and root growth, and by explicitly tracking the evolution of aboveground biomass and its effect on sedimentation rates. Using the numerical model we explore how marsh stratigraphy responds to sediment supply and the rate of sea-level rise. It is calibrated and tested using an extensive data set of both marsh stratigraphy and measurements of vegetation dynamics in a Spartina alterniflora marsh in South Carolina, USA. We find that carbon accumulation in marshes is nonlinearly related to both the supply of inorganic sediment and the rate of sea-level rise; carbon accumulation increases with sea-level rise until sea-level rise reaches a critical rate that drowns the marsh vegetation and halts carbon accumulation. The model predicts that changes in carbon storage resulting from changing sediment supply or sea-level rise are strongly dependent on the background sediment supply: if inorganic sediment supply is reduced in an already sediment poor marsh the storage of organic carbon will increase to a far greater extent than in a sediment-rich marsh, provided that the rate of sea-level rise does not exceed a threshold. These results imply that altering sediment supply to estuaries (e.g., by damming upstream rivers or altering littoral sediment transport) could lead to significant changes in the carbon budgets of coastal salt marshes.     

Bathymetric and magnetic survey of California Seamount (17°40′N × 124°W)

A bathymetric and magnetic survey of the California Seamount region (17°40′N × 124°00′W) shows that existing charts are in error. California Seamount is a peak extending to within 454 m (248 fathoms) of the surface. Its true location is 17°41′N × 124°01′W, 25 km southwest of the charted position. Near the old charted position there is an elongated feature which extends to within 1818 m (994 fathoms) of the surface. Both features are located on the Clarion Fracture Zone.