Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

Origin of the pre-tropical storm Debby (2006) African easterly wave-mesoscale convective system

The origins of the pre-Debby (2006) mesoscale convective system (MCS) and African easterly wave (AEW) and their precursors were traced back to the southwest Arabian Peninsula, Asir Mountains (AS), and Ethiopian Highlands (EH) in the vicinity of the ITCZ using satellite imagery, GFS analysis data and ARW model. The sources of the convective cloud clusters and vorticity perturbations were attributed to the cyclonic convergence of northeasterly Shamal wind and the Somali jet, especially when the Mediterranean High shifted toward east and the Indian Ocean high strengthened and its associated Somali jet penetrated farther to the north. The cyclonic vorticity perturbations were strengthened by the vorticity stretching associated with convective cloud clusters in the genesis region—southwest Arabian Peninsula. A conceptual model was proposed to explain the genesis of convective cloud clusters and cyclonic vorticity perturbations preceding the pre-Debby (2006) AEW–MCS system.     

Climate change and mental health: an exploratory case study from Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada

As the impacts from anthropogenic climate change are increasing globally, people are experiencing dramatic shifts in weather, temperature, wildlife and vegetation patterns, and water and food quality and availability. These changes impact human health and well-being, and resultantly, climate change has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century. Recently, research is beginning to indicate that changes in climate, and the subsequent disruption to the social, economic, and environmental determinants of health, may cause increased incidences and prevalence of mental health issues, emotional responses, and large-scale sociopsychological changes. Through a multi-year, community-led, exploratory case study conducted in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, this research qualitatively explores the impacts of climate change on mental health and well-being in an Inuit context. Drawing from 67 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2010 and October 2010 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that changes in weather, snow and ice stability and extent, and wildlife and vegetation patterns attributed to climate change were negatively impacting mental health and well-being due to disruptions in land-based activities and a loss of place-based solace and cultural identity. Participants reported that changes in climate and environment increased family stress, enhanced the possibility of increased drug and alcohol usage, amplified previous traumas and mental health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation. While a preliminary case study, these exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional mental health stressor for resource-dependent communities and provide a baseline for further research.     

What can ecological science tell us about opportunities for carbon sequestration on arid rangelands in the United States?

Scientific interest in carbon sequestration on rangelands is largely driven by their extent, while the interest of ranchers in the United States centers on opportunities to enhance revenue streams. Rangelands cover approximately 30% of the earth's ice-free land surface and hold an equivalent amount of the world's terrestrial carbon. Rangelands are grasslands, shrublands, and savannas and cover 312 million hectares in the United States. On the arid and semi-arid sites typical of rangelands annual fluxes are small and unpredictable over time and space, varying primarily with precipitation, but also with soils and vegetation. There is broad scientific consensus that non-equilibrium ecological models better explain the dynamics of such rangelands than equilibrium models, yet current and proposed carbon sequestration policies and associated grazing management recommendations in the United States often do not incorporate this developing scientific understanding of rangeland dynamics. Carbon uptake on arid and semi-arid rangelands is most often controlled by abiotic factors not easily changed by management of grazing or vegetation. Additionality may be impossible to achieve consistently through management on rangelands near the more xeric end of a rangeland climatic gradient. This point is illustrated by a preliminary examination of efforts to develop voluntary cap and trade markets for carbon credits in the United States, and options including payment for ecosystem services or avoided conversion, and carbon taxation. A preliminary analysis focusing on cap and trade and payment for avoided conversion or ecosystem services illustrates the misalignment between policies targeting vegetation management for enhanced carbon uptake and non-equilibrium carbon dynamics on arid United States rangelands. It is possible that current proposed carbon policy as exemplified by carbon credit exchange or offsets will result in a net increase in emissions, as well as investment in failed management. Rather than focusing on annual fluxes, policy and management initiatives should seek long-term protection of rangelands and rangeland soils to conserve carbon, and a broader range of environmental and social benefits.     

Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.     

Current approaches to MRV in South Africa: a scoping study

It is shown that there are MRV-related activities underway in South Africa, particularly focusing on measuring electricity consumption and monitoring GHG emissions. Yet currently many of these activities happen in parallel systems within multi-polar governance structures. A bottom-up perspective of MRV in South Africa, informed by interviews, workshops, desktop research, and stakeholder consultations, is provided and the systems, data, methodologies, and the institutional environment relevant to a South African MRV system are examined. The development of the local monitoring and evaluation system, and its relevance within the international MRV context, is also discussed. Some recommendations are made: most importantly, there is a need for a coherent approach to be developed, one that is coordinated by government and built on existing MRV systems.     

Interannual variability of water ice clouds over major martian volcanoes observed by MOC

Using Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Camera daily global maps, cloud areas have been measured daily for water ice clouds associated with the topography of the major volcanoes Olympus Mons, Ascraeus Mons, Pavonis Mons, Arsia Mons, Elysium Mons, and Alba Patera. This study expands on that of Benson et al. [Benson, J.L., Bonev, B.P., James, P.B., Shan, K.J., Cantor, B.A., Caplinger, M.A., 2003. Icarus 165, 34-52] by continuing their cloud area measurements of the Tharsis volcanoes, Olympus Mons and Alba Patera for an additional martian year (August 2001-May 2003) and by also including Elysium Mons measurements from March 1999 through May 2003. The seasonal trends in cloud activity established by Benson et al. [Benson, J.L., Bonev, B.P., James, P.B., Shan, K.J., Cantor, B.A., Caplinger, M.A., 2003. Icarus 165, 34-52] for the five volcanoes studied earlier are corroborated here with an additional year of coverage. For volcanoes other than Arsia Mons, interannual variations that could be associated with the large 2001 planet encircling dust storm are minimal. At Arsia Mons, where cloud activity was continuous in the first two years, clouds disappeared totally for ∼85° of LS (LS=188°-275°) due to the dust storm. Elysium Mons cloud activity is similar to that of Olympus Mons, however the peak in cloud area is near LS=130° rather than near LS=100°.     

Results from the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) – II. Stellar variability in the Pegasus field

Recent wide field photometric surveys, which target a specific field for long durations, are ideal for studying both long- and short-period stellar variability. Here, we report on 75 variable stars detected during the observations of a field in Pegasus using the Wide Angle Search for Planets Prototype (WASP0) instrument, 73 of which are new discoveries. The variables detected include 16 δ Scuti stars, 34 eclipsing binaries, 3 BY Draconis stars and 4 RR Lyraes. We estimate that the fraction of stars in the field brighter than   V ∼ 13.5  exhibiting variable behaviour with an amplitude greater than 0.6 per cent rms is ∼0.4 per cent. These results are compared with other wide field stellar variability surveys, and implications for detecting transits due to extra-solar planets are discussed.     

Accurate jovian radio flux density measurements show ammonia to be subsaturated in the upper troposphere

The availability of new accurate radio flux densities of Jupiter in and around the λ?1.3 cm ammonia absorption band, one from ground-based radio data and five from the WMAP satellite, permits re-examination of the structure of the jovian upper troposphere. These flux densities, with accuracies of 1-3%, indicate that the jovian atmospheric ammonia is globally subsaturated within and above the ammonia cloud tops, 0.4 bar?P?0.6 bar, and subsolar (by a factor of 2) below the cloud base, 0.6 bar?P?2 bar.