Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian summer monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1.1(m). For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model's forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Niño3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

Dynamical portrait of the Lixiaohua asteroid family

In this paper we present a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics in the region of the (3556) Lixiaohua asteroid family. The family lies in a particularly interesting region of the phase space, crossed by several two-body and three-body mean motion resonances. Also, members of this family can have close encounters with large asteroids, such as Ceres. We have identified the mean motion resonances which contribute to the long-term dynamical evolution of the family and our results confirm that the members of this family can be classified into a number of groups, exhibiting different dynamical behavior. We show for the first time that in the Lixiaohua region, apart from the chaotic diffusion in proper eccentricity and inclination (e _p and I _p ), there is at least one extended chaotic zone where several resonances overlap, thus giving rise to chaotic diffusion in proper semi-major axis (a _p ) as well. Using a code of Monte Carlo type, we simulate the evolution of the family, according to the model which combines the chaotic diffusion (in a _p , e _p and I _p ), Yarkovsky/YORP thermal effect and random walk in a _p due to the close encounters with massive asteroids. These simulations show that all these effects should be taken into account in order to accurately explain the observed distribution of family members in the space of proper elements, although a “minimal” model that accounts for chaotic diffusion in (e _p , I _p ), Yarkovsky-induced drift in a _p and random walk in a _p due to the close encounters with the most massive asteroids is enough to grossly characterize the shape of the family.     

A visual basic spreadsheet macro for geochemical background analysis

A Visual Basic macro entitled BACKGROUND calculates geochemical background values of chemical parameters and estimates threshold values separating background data from anomalies. The macro uses two statistical methods, the iterative 2-sigma technique and the calculated distribution function, and integrates these model-based objective methods into a widely accessible platform (i.e., MS Excel). The macro offers the possibility for automated processing of geochemical data and enables an automated generation of background range and threshold values for chemical parameters.     

Origin,organic geochemistry,and estimation of the generation potential of Neogene lacustrine sediments from the Valjevo-Mionica Basin,Serbia

This paper reports an investigation of 60 samples of lacustrine sedimentary rocks of Neogene age lying at depths of 0–400 m in the Valjevo-Mionica Basin, Serbia. The goal of the study was to determine the origin and type of primary organic matter (OM), the degree of thermal alteration, the generation potential of OM from the rocks of this basin, and conditions in the sedimentation environment during the formation of the rocks. The potential of OM of the rocks was estimated on the basis of the thermolysis of a representative sample after its preliminary debituminization.     

Investigation of the sulfur speciation during chalcopyrite leaching by moderate thermophile Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans

The surface sulfur speciation of chalcopyrite leached by moderately thermophilic Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans was investigated by employing scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and sulfur K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES), accompanying with the leaching behavior elucidation. Leaching experiment showed that there was an optimum range of the redox potential for chalcopyrite dissolution. Leaching products were found accumulating during the leaching process, which might be jarosite according to the XRD analysis. The sulfur K-edge spectra indicated that chalcocite might be the intermediate sulfur compound under a critical redox potential, which might explain the existence of optimum range of the redox potential and provide an evidence for the two-step leaching model of chalcopyrite at low Eh. In addition, the results of sulfur K-edge spectra showed jarosite would accumulate on mineral surface, which might be the main component of the passivation layer.     

Occurrence and geochemistry of arsenic in the groundwater of Eastern Croatia

In order to examine the extent of the As enrichment and the factors influencing this enrichment in the groundwater of Eastern Croatia, groundwater samples were collected from 56 production wells in two counties, Osijek-Baranja and Vukovar-Srijem, suspected to be more affected. Hydrochemical analyses were performed at all locations including in situ As speciation at 32 locations. Arsenic was detected in 46 out of 56 groundwater samples with total As concentrations up to 491 μg/L. Thirty-six of the studied wells yielded groundwater with total As concentrations that exceeded the WHO Maximum Contaminant Level for arsenic in drinking water of 10 μg/L. Only inorganic As species were detected with arsenite As(III) as the predominant form. The spatial distribution of As in the groundwater was significantly linked with geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological development of the alluvial basin of the Drava and Sava rivers. The most probable groundwater As sources are deeper sediments from the Middle and Upper Pleistocene. The results obtained suggest that biogeochemical processes controlling As concentration in the groundwater are complex and location-specific. Reductive dissolution of Fe oxides, desorption of As from Fe oxides and/or clay minerals as well as competition for the sorption sites with organic matter and phosphate could be the principal mechanisms that control As mobilization. The extent of those processes vary in the different parts of the Drava and Sava depressions and could be linked to different site related parameters, such as lithology, mineralogy, local hydrology and hydrogeology; thus different processes of As mobilization have been proposed for the different types of water in relation to groundwater evolution.     

Modeling and representation for earthquake emergency response knowledge: perspective for working with geo-ontology

Earthquake emergency response is one of the three earthquake disaster mitigation work systems in China, already achieving good results in some earthquake disaster mitigation situations. Earthquake emergency plans and emergency command systems are among the most important research and operations components of emergency response. These components commonly come with challenges, such as the pertinence of emergency commands and the operability of the countermeasures to be improved. The promise for solving this problem resides with applying knowledge that aids intelligence creation for decision-making. In this paper, we put forward a conceptual model of knowledge for earthquake disaster emergency response (EDER); compositions of EDER knowledge are introduced within architecture. A modeling method incorporating geo-ontology is used to build basic modeling primitives. Geo-ontology serves to represent geospatial characteristics of the EDER knowledge and addresses a need for semantic interoperability in the modeling process. A decision problem framework and a case study have been used as theoretical framework and an application test, respectively, to evaluate the EDER knowledge architecture and models. The EDER knowledge model provides a foundation for intelligent emergency response that helps solve knowledge problems to improve earthquake disaster response.