Sensitivity analysis of the Ångstrom exponent for multimodal aerosol size distributions

This study characterizes the Ångstrom exponent for polydispersed aerosol size distributions. Under the assumption of a lognormal size distribution, the dependence of Ångstrom exponent on the size distribution and the refractive index with varying real and imaginary parts are determined. Further, the influence of coarse mode particles on the Ångstrom exponent is investigated quantitatively. The results show that the nuclei mode has less influence under the simulation conditions considered in this study. It is also shown that the refractive index is an important factor influencing the Ångstrom exponent. The effect of the coarse mode on the Ångstrom exponent computed with different aerosol number concentrations and as a function of a geometric standard deviation and a geometric mean diameter is tested. It is shown that the coarse mode is crucial for determining the Ångstrom exponent.     

Sources and Transport of Urban and Biomass Burning Aerosol Black Carbon at the South–West Atlantic Coast

The total extent of the atmospheric impacts associated to the aerosol black carbon (BC) emissions from South America is not completed described. This work presents results of BC monitored during three scientific expeditions (2002, 2003 and 2004) on board of a Brazilian oceanographic vessel Ary Rongel that covered the South–West Atlantic coast between 22–62°S. This latitudinal band encloses major urban regions of South America and the outflow region of the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergent Zone), which is an important mechanism of advective transport of heat, moisture, minor gases and aerosols from the South America continental land to the Southern Atlantic Ocean. Our results showed that aerosol BC enhanced concentrations from urban/industrial origin can be transported to the South–West Atlantic Ocean due to the migration of sub-polar fronts that frequently reach tropical/subtropical regions. Despite the decrease of aerosol BC concentrations southwards (from ∼1,200 ng m⁻³ at latitude 22°S to ∼10 ng m⁻³ at latitude 62°S), several observed peak events were attributed to regional urban activities. Most of such events could be explained by the use of air mass back trajectories analysis. In addition, a global model simulation is presented (Goddard Institute for Space Studies – GISS GCM BC simulation) to explore the origins of aerosol BC in the South–West Atlantic. The model allowed isolating the biomass emissions from South America and Africa and industrial (non-biomass) pollution from other regions of the globe. This model suggests that the apportionment of about half of the aerosol BC at the South–West Atlantic may derive from South American biomass burning.     

Technical note on a track-pattern-based model for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Recently, the National Typhoon Center (NTC) at the Korea Meteorological Administration launched a track-pattern-based model that predicts the horizontal distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) track density from June to October. This model is the first approach to target seasonal TC track clusters covering the entire western North Pacific (WNP) basin, and may represent a milestone for seasonal TC forecasting, using a simple statistical method that can be applied at weather operation centers. In this note, we describe the procedure of the track-pattern-based model with brief technical background to provide practical information on the use and operation of the model. The model comprises three major steps. First, long-term data of WNP TC tracks reveal seven climatological track clusters. Second, the TC counts for each cluster are predicted using a hybrid statistical-dynamical method, using the seasonal prediction of large-scale environments. Third, the final forecast map of track density is constructed by merging the spatial probabilities of the seven clusters and applying necessary bias corrections. Although the model is developed to issue the seasonal forecast in mid-May, it can be applied to alternative dates and target seasons following the procedure described in this note. Work continues on establishing an automatic system for this model at the NTC.     

An ENSO stability analysis. Part I: results from a hybrid coupled model

In this study, we use the Bjerknes stability (BJ) index as a tool to investigate overall El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stability in a hybrid-coupled model (HCM) with various atmosphere and ocean background states. This HCM shows that ENSO growth rates as measured by the BJ index and linear growth rates estimated directly with a time series of the Niño 3.4 indices from the coupled model simulations exhibit similar dependence on background states, coupling strength, and thermodynamic damping intensity. That is, the BJ index and linear growth rates increase with a decrease in the intensity of the background wind, an increase in coupling strength, or a decrease in the intensity of thermodynamic damping, although the BJ index tends to overestimate the growth rate. A detailed analysis of the components of the BJ index formula suggests the importance of model climatological background states and oceanic dynamic parameters in determining ENSO stability. We conclude that the BJ index may serve as a useful tool for qualitatively evaluating the overall ENSO stability in coupled models or in observations without a detailed eigen-analysis that is difficult to perform in models more complex than relatively simple models.     

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.     

Changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation for 1980–2009 revealed in MERRA reanalysis data

Changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) during the 30 years 1980–2009 are investigated using Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. The mass streamfunction that is induced by wave forcings in the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equation through the downward-control principle is used as a proxy for the BDC. The changes in the BDC are investigated using two aspects: the wave propagation conditions in the stratosphere and the wave activity in the upper troposphere. They are compared in the first (P1) and second (P2) 15-year periods. The resolved wave forcing, expressed by the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence (EPD), is significantly enhanced during the December-January-February (DJF) season in P2 in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid- and high latitudes. The increased zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in the SH, caused by ozone depletion, leads to an upward shift of the Rossby-wave critical layer and this allows more transient planetary waves to propagate into the stratosphere. In the NH, the enhanced EPD in DJF leads to an increase in the frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. The gravity wave drag (GWD) is smaller than the EPD and the change in it between the two time periods is insignificant. The residual term in the TEM equation is similar to the GWD in the two periods, but its change between the two periods is as large as the change in the EPD. Among the four components of the EP flux at 250 hPa, the meridional heat flux played a dominant role in the enhancement of the BDC in P2.     

Evaluation of drought and flood risks in a multipurpose dam under climate change: a case study of Chungju Dam in Korea

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the drought and flood risks of a multipurpose dam. To achieve this, A2 climate change scenarios of RegCM3 were collected about Chungju Dam in Korea. To analyze drought risks, weather data obtained by the statistical downscaling method were entered to produce runoff series by runoff modeling and water balance was analyzed based on water use scenarios to review changes in the storage volume under climate change. To analyze flood risks, changes in water levels of the dam in future flood seasons were reviewed based on the current dam operation method. The results of the review indicated that both the drought and the flood risks of the dam would increase in the future. The reason was considered to be the movement of the flood season’s runoff characteristics from July and August to August and September because of climate change. Therefore, for climate change adaptation planning, not only quantitative changes in hydrologic values but also changes in temporal characteristics should be considered and given importance.     

The occurrence of cyanobacteria and microcystins in the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir (North Vietnam)

The occurrence of increasing blooms of toxic cyanobacteria in freshwaters has received much attention due to the ability of many cyanobacteria to produce potent cyanotoxins. In this paper, the occurrence of dominant cyanobacteria and the concentration of microcystins (MCs) analysis were investigated monthly from July 2008 to April 2009 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from February to April 2009 in the Nui Coc reservoir. Concentrations of intracellular MCs from water, bloom samples, and isolated strains were quantified by using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). During the study period, the microscopic examination of the phytoplankton samples showed the dominance of the genus Microcystis in the water environment of the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir. The toxin analysis by HPLC demonstrated the presence of two MC variants: MC-LR and MC-RR in water samples. Total concentrations of the toxins in filtered samples from surface water ranged from non-detected to 0.91 μg L^?1 at Nui Coc reservoir and they ranged from 2.1 to 46.0 μg L^?1 at Hoan Kiem Lake. The results of the HPLC analysis confirmed the production of MCs in bloom samples (ranged from 115.9 to 184.6 μg L^?1 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from 726.5 to 1116 μg L^?1 in the Nui Coc reservoir) and isolated strains of Anabaena sp. and Microcystis with the concentration of MC ranging from 152 to 396.2 μg g^?1 dry mass, respectively.     

Development of a CO2 emission factor in Korea from sub-bituminous coal by the classification method

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change classifies coal as anthracite, bituminous coal, and sub-bituminous coal, Korea only distinguishes coal as anthracite and bituminous coal while sub-bituminous coal is considered bituminous coal. As a result, Korea conducted research in the CO₂ emission factors of anthracite and bituminous coal, but largely ignored sub-bituminous coal. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to develop the CO₂ emission factor of sub-bituminous coal by classifying sub-bituminous coal from resources of bituminous coal activities collected in Korea between 2007 and 2011. The 2007–2011 average carbon content of sub-bituminous coal was analyzed to be 69.63 ± 3.11 %, the average hydrogen content 4.97 ± 0.37 %, the inherent moisture 12.60 ± 4.33 %, the total moisture 21.91 ± 5.45 %, and the dry-based gross calorific value was analyzed to be 5,914 ± 391 kcal/kg; using these analyzed values, the as-received net calorific value was found to be 20.75 ± 7.59 TJ/Gg and the CO₂ emission factor was found to be 96,241 ± 4,064 kg/TJ. In addition, the 62.7 million ton amount for the 2009 greenhouse gas emission from sub-bituminous coal as estimated with the analyzed value of this study is an amount that is equivalent to 11.1 % of the 2009 total greenhouse gas emission amount of 564.7 million tons, and this amount is larger than the 9.3 % for the industrial processes sector, 3.3 % for the agricultural sector and 2.5 % for the waste sector. Therefore, it is important to reflect the realities of Korea when estimating the greenhouse gas emission from such sub-bituminous coals.