A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.     

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.     

Uncertainty analysis for the integration of seismic and controlled source electro‐magnetic data

We study the appraisal problem for the joint inversion of seismic and controlled source electro‐magnetic (CSEM) data and utilize rock‐physics models to integrate these two disparate data sets. The appraisal problem is solved by adopting a Bayesian model and we incorporate four representative sources of uncertainty. These are uncertainties in 1) seismic wave velocity, 2) electric conductivity, 3) seismic data and 4) CSEM data. The uncertainties in porosity and water saturation are quantified by a posterior random sampling in the model space of porosity and water saturation in a marine one‐dimensional structure. We study the relative contributions from the four individual sources of uncertainty by performing several statistical experiments. The uncertainties in the seismic wave velocity and electric conductivity play a more significant role on the variation of posterior uncertainty than do the seismic and CSEM data noise. The numerical simulations also show that the uncertainty in porosity is most affected by the uncertainty in the seismic wave velocity and that the uncertainty in water saturation is most influenced by the uncertainty in electric conductivity. The framework of the uncertainty analysis presented in this study can be utilized to effectively reduce the uncertainty of the porosity and water saturation derived from the integration of seismic and CSEM data.     

Geotectonic framework of Permo–Triassic magmatism within the Korean Peninsula

This study presents sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U–Pb zircon ages, and whole-rock chemical and isotopic (Sr-Nd) compositions of representative Triassic plutons from South Korea. The plutons from the Gyeonggi massif (Hongseong, Namyang, Yangpyeong and Odesan), the central Okcheon belt (Baeknok and Yongsan), and the Yeongnam massif (Sangju, Gimcheon, Hamyang and Macheon) yield zircon U–Pb ages of ca. 232–226 Ma, 227–226 Ma, and 240–228 Ma, respectively. Among the Triassic plutonic suite in South Korea, those within the Gyeonggi massif are dominated by granite, syenite, monzonite, monzodiorite and gabbro. Plutons within the Okcheon belt are mainly by granite to quartz monzodiorite. The Yeongnam massif mainly incorporates granite to granodiorite and minor monzodiorite intrusions. The geochemical signatures of the Triassic plutons are characterized by Ta–Nb troughs, depletion of P and Ti, and enrichment of LILE. Most plutons except Macheon monzodioritic pluton show high initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.708248–0.714678) and strongly negative ε_Nd(T) (− 20.3 to − 7.7) values, suggesting contribution from middle to upper crust. In contrast, the Macheon monzodioritic pluton in the Yeongnam massif shows relatively low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.706547-0.706629) and negative ε_Nd(T) (− 4.43 to − 3.62) values. The Middle Triassic syenite–monzonite–granite–gabbro series in and around the Gyeonggi massif possess high-K calc-alkaline and shoshonitic affinity suggesting a post-collisional magmatic event following the Permo–Triassic collision between the North and South China blocks. The Triassic plutons in the Yeongnam massif and the Okcheon belt, together with a Permian Yeongdeok pluton in the Gyeongsang basin, show features typical of high- to medium-K calc-alkaline magmatism with LREE and LILE enrichments. This together with a depletion of Y and HREE suggests their formation in a subduction setting. Our results provide robust evidence to consider the Gyeonggi massif as an extension of the Qinling–Dabie–Sulu belt between the North and South China blocks in central China. The Okcheon belt and Yeongnam massif in South Korea, together with the continental margin of South China, are marked by a common Permian to Triassic magmatic episode, probably related to the paleo-Pacific slab subduction.     

Seismically induced changes in groundwater levels and temperatures following the ML5.8 (ML5.1) Gyeongju earthquake in South Korea

Hydrogeological responses to earthquakes such as changes in groundwater level, temperature, and chemistry, have been observed for several decades. This study examines behavior associated with M_L 5.8 and M_L 5.1 earthquakes that occurred on 12 September 2016 near Gyeongju, a city located on the southeast coast of the Korean peninsula. The M_L 5.8 event stands as the largest recorded earthquake in South Korea since the advent of modern recording systems. There was considerable damage associated with the earthquakes and many aftershocks. Records from monitoring wells located about 135 km west of the epicenter displayed various patterns of change in both water level and temperature. There were transient-type, step-like-type (up and down), and persistent-type (rise and fall) changes in water levels. The water temperature changes were of transient, shift-change, and tendency-change types. Transient changes in the groundwater level and temperature were particularly well developed in monitoring wells installed along a major boundary fault that bisected the study area. These changes were interpreted as representing an aquifer system deformed by seismic waves. The various patterns in groundwater level and temperature, therefore, suggested that seismic waves impacted the fractured units through the reactivation of fractures, joints, and microcracks, which resulted from a pulse in fluid pressure. This study points to the value of long-term monitoring efforts, which in this case were able to provide detailed information needed to manage the groundwater resources in areas potentially affected by further earthquakes.

     

Effects of Light,Salinity and Temperature on Germination Characteristics of Surfgrass,Phyllospadix japonicus and P. iwatensis Seeds

Ocean Science Journal - Surfgrass (Phyllospadix spp.) is a marine flowering plant that attaches to the bedrock of the Pacific Ocean, where the tide is fast and the waves are strong. In Korea, two...     

Sorption of cesium and iodide ions onto KENTEX-bentonite

The sorption of cesium and iodide ions onto KENTEX-bentonite was investigated using batch test and in-diffusion test methods. The cesium ions were highly sorbed on the bentonite, and the experimental data fit the Freundlich isotherm well. The distribution coefficient, K _d, of the cesium ions was variably affected by the chemical conditions of the solution (initial ion concentration, pH, salinity) and temperature. An increasing pH of solution increased the K _d. However, there were different K _d values that decrease with an increase in the initial ion concentration, salinity, and temperature. The iodide ions, on the contrary, were negligibly sorptive. The K _d values obtained from the in-diffusion tests were quite lower than those from the batch tests, which could be explained by changes in the pore water chemistry and surface area available for sorption.     

Effects of climate change on forests of the eastern United States

A multi‐phased approach was used to estimate potential impacts of climate change on forests of the eastern United States. Phase I was at community‐level and Phase II examined selected species, both using three 2 x CO₂ climate scenarios. Geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical modeling techniques were used to manipulate and analyze climate and vegetation data, and model vegetation responses to climate change. The first two stages of the study indicated possible large‐scale alteration of forest communities by future climate change. Although results varied among climate models, several trends were apparent. In northern states of the study area, ranges of several conifers declined significantly and ranges of oaks and hickories moved northward. In central states, ranges of sugar maple and tulip poplar became much smaller, with concomitant increases in ranges of southern oaks and loblolly pine. In . southern states, American beech declined and ranges of southern oaks increased northward. This paper discusses results of the first two phases and current progress of the third phase.     

Buoyant boundary layer flows- an analogy to the Ekman spiral

Abstract

Flow details inside the buoyant boundary layer in the heat-up process of a contained, stably stratified, fluid are presented. Numerical solutions were obtained for the heatup problem in a cylinder considered by Sakurai and Matsuda (1972). By plotting the scaled vertical velocity W versus the scaled temperature θ as functions of the normal distance from the sidewall, the precise shape of the buoyant layer spiral is constructed. The analogy between this spiral and the Ekman spiral in rotating fluids is apparent. As the Rayleigh number Ra increases, the magnitude of the scaled vertical velocity increases substantially, but the scaled temperature does not vary appreciably. The buoyant layer thickness is determined by measuring the zero-crossing normal distance for the vertical velocity. The buoyant layer suction increases significantly as Ra increases. The effects of vertical level and of time on the qualitative behavior of buoyant layer flows are found to be small. The buoyant layer flows decay over the heat-up time scale t _n ; t _h characterizes the time span over which the overall adjustment process in the inviscid interior region is accomplished. This work clarifies that the analogy between heat-up and spin-up, which has been known to exist in the main body of inviscid fluid, applies equally well to the boundary layer regions.