Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.     

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.     

Core-based reconstruction of paleoenvironmental conditions in the southern Drake Passage (West Antarctica) over the last 150 ka

A deep-sea sediment core (GC98-06) from the southernmost Drake Passage, West Antarctica, shows late Quaternary depositional environments distinctly different from sedimentary drifts commonly found along the southwestern Pacific margin of the Drake Passage. The chronology of the core has been inferred using geochemical tracers of paleoproductivity and diatom biostratigraphy, and represents the paleoceanographic conditions in a continental rise setting during the last 150,000 years. Three dominant sediment types associated with distinct sedimentary processes have been identified using textural/compositional analyses: (1) hemipelagic mud (interglacial sediments) deposited from pelagic settling of bioclasts, meltwater plumes, and ice-rafted detritus; (2) terrigenous mud (glacial sediments) delivered by turbid meltwater plumes; and (3) massive muds marking the boundaries from interglacial to glacial periods. The succession of the sedimentary facies in core GC98-06 is interpreted to reflect temporal changes in environmental conditions prevailing on the continental rise of the southern Drake Passage in the course of successive climatic stages over the last 150 ka: from the bottom upward, these are glacial, interglacial, glaciation, glacial, and interglacial episodes. Variability in sediment flux and diatom abundance seem to have been related to changes in glacial advance, sea-ice extent, and specific sedimentary environments, collectively influenced by mid- to late Quaternary climatic changes.     

Sediment oxygen consumption in semi-closed Korean coastal bays during summer

We used an oxygen microsensor for high-resolution measurements of pore water oxygen concentration in semi-closed coastal bays of the South Sea of Korea during summer. The oxygen penetration depths ranged from 0.60 to 3.65 mm. Oxygen consumption rates were estimated to be 9.1 to 59 mmol m^?2 d^?1 (average: 22.8 mmol m^?2 d^?1). At the sediment-water interface, the oxidation rates of organic carbon were estimated to be 84–545 mg C m^?2 d^?1 (average: 211 mg C m^?2 d^?1). Approximately 38% (～211 mg C m^?2 d^?1) of pelagic primary production was regenerated in the surface sediment, indicating the tight benthic-pelagic coupling in the coastal sea of the South Sea of Korea.     

ARD generation and corrosion potential of exposed roadside rockmass at Boeun and Mujoo,South Korea

Acid rock drainage (ARD) is a longstanding problem often associated with the resulting corrosion due to the acidity generated from sulfidic oxidation. To evaluate characteristics of ARD and corrosion, samples from the road side rock mass of Boeun and Mujoo were analysed using X-ray diffraction, acid/base accounting and Leaching tests. The results indicated that many samples had a pyritic origin and can be regarded as acid-generating rocks. The Leaching test showed that the average pH of the leachates of samples from both Boeun and Mujoo were moderately acidic, ranging from 3 to 4. Interestingly, as acidity increases from pH 4, the SO₄₋, Fe, Al and Mg concentrations increase abnormally. Samples from roadside slope of Mujoo showed high corrosive potential. Maximum sulfide oxidation rate of a sample taken from Mujoo was as high as 5,166 mg/kg/week.     

Seasonal variations in pCO2 and its controlling factors in surface seawater of the northern East China Sea

Surface partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂), temperature, salinity, nutrients, and chlorophyll a were measured in the East China Sea (ECS; 31°30′–34°00′N to 124°00′–127°30′E) in August 2003 (summer), May 2004 (spring), October 2004 (early fall), and November 2005 (fall). The warm and saline Tsushima Warm Current was observed in the eastern part of the survey area during four cruises, and relatively low salinity waters due to outflow from the Changjiang (Yangtze River) were observed over the western part of the survey area. Surface pCO₂ ranged from 236 to 445 μatm in spring and summer, and from 326 to 517 μatm in fall. Large pCO₂ (values >400 μatm) occurred in the western part of the study area in spring and fall, and in the eastern part in summer. A positive linear correlation existed between surface pCO₂ and temperature in the eastern part of the study area, where the Tsushima Warm Current dominates; this correlation suggests that temperature is the major factor controlling surface pCO₂ distribution in that area. In the western part of the study area, however, the main controlling factor is different and seasonally complex. There is large transport in this region of Changjiang Diluted Water in summer, causing low salinity and low pCO₂ values. The relationship between surface pCO₂ and water stability suggests that the amount of mixing and/or upwelling of CO₂-rich water might be the important process controlling surface pCO₂ levels during spring and fall in this shallow region. Sea–air CO₂ flux, based on the application of a Wanninkhof [1992. Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research 97, 7373–7382] formula for gas transfer velocity and a set of monthly averaged satellite wind data, were −5.04±1.59, −2.52±1.81, 1.71±2.87, and 0.39±0.18 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in spring, summer, early fall, and fall, respectively, in the northern ECS. The ocean in this study area is therefore a carbon sink in spring and summer, but a weak source or in equilibrium with the atmosphere in fall. If the winter flux value is assumed to have been the mean of autumnal and vernal values, then the northern ECS absorbs about 0.013 Pg C annually. That result suggests that the northern ECS is a net sink for atmospheric CO₂, a result consistent with previous studies.     

The impacts of climate change on local hydrology and low flow frequency in the Geum River Basin,Korea

The climate sensitive analysis of potential climate change on streamflow has been conducted using a hydrologic model to identify hydrologic variability associated with climate scenarios as a function of perturbed climatic variables (e.g. carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation). The interannual variation of water resources availability as well as low flow frequency driven by monsoonal time shifts have been investigated to evaluate the likelihood of droughts in a changing climate. The results show that the timing shift of the monsoon window associated with future climate scenarios clearly affect annual water yield change of ? 12 and ? 8% corresponding to 1‐month earlier and 1‐month later monsoon windows, respectively. Also, a more severe low flow condition has been predicted at 0·03 m³/s as opposed to the historic 7Q10 flow of 1·54 m³/s given at extreme climate scenarios. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.     

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.