Modeling policy and agricultural decisions in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is responsible for the majority of the world’s supply of poppy crops, which are often used to produce illegal narcotics like heroin. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates policy scenarios to characterize how the production of poppy can be dampened and replaced with licit crops over time. The model is initialized with spatial data, including transportation network and satellite-derived land use data. Parameters representing national subsidies, insurgent influence, and trafficking blockades are varied to represent different conditions that might encourage or discourage poppy agriculture. Our model shows that boundary-level interventions, such as targeted trafficking blockades at border locations, are critical in reducing the attractiveness of growing this illicit crop. The principle of least effort implies that interventions decrease to a minimal non-regressive point, leading to the prediction that increases in insurgency or other changes are likely to lead to worsening conditions, and improvements require substantial jumps in intervention resources.     

Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic

A homogeneous monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress based on in situ observations is used to investigate the climatic trends over the tropical Atlantic during the last five decades (1964–2012). After a decrease of SST by about 1 °C during 1964–1975, most apparent in the northern tropical region, the entire tropical basin warmed up. That warming was the most substantial (>1 °C) in the eastern tropical ocean and in the longitudinal band of the intertropical convergence zone. Surprisingly, the trade wind system also strengthened over the peirod 1964–2012. Complementary information extracted from other observational data sources confirms the simultaneity of SST warming and the strengthening of the surface winds. Examining data sets of surface heat flux during the last few decades for the same region, we find that the SST warming was not a consequence of atmospheric heat flux forcing. Conversely, we suggest that long-term SST warming drives changes in atmosphere parameters at the sea surface, most notably an increase in latent heat flux, and that an acceleration of the hydrological cycle induces a strengthening of the trade winds and an acceleration of the Hadley circulation. These trends are also accompanied by rising sea levels and upper ocean heat content over similar multi-decadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic. Though more work is needed to fully understand these long term trends, especially what happens from the mid-1970’s, it is likely that changes in ocean circulation involving some combination of the Atlantic meridional overtuning circulation and the subtropical cells are required to explain the observations.     

Phillipsite formation in nephelinitic rocks in response to hydrothermal alteration at Mount Etinde,Cameroon

Fresh nephelinitic rocks and hydrothermally altered rocks at Mount Etinde (Cameroon Volcanic Line, West Africa) have been studied by combined whole rock geochemistry (ICP-MS), mineralogy and mineral chemistry (SEM-EDS, WDS, XRD) techniques. The nephelinites have feldspathoids, clinopyroxene, perovskite and titanomagnetite as the principal minerals in the mode with subsidiary apatite and sphene. The mineralogy of their hydrothermally altered counterparts includes phillipsite, calcite and analcime which are secondary phases developed in response to hydrothermal fluid events. Correspondingly, the bulk rock geochemical data show elevated SiO₂, CaO, Na₂O and K₂O concentrations with increasing alteration and Al₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃ depletion while MgO, MnO and TiO₂ concentrations are largely unaffected. The nephelinites also have high concentrations of LILLE, HFSE and REE and upon hydrothermal alteration they show an enrichment of LREE and MREE over HREE. Phillipsite is the principal alteration mineral in the rocks and it occurs along cracks, vesicles and also forms alteromorphs after feldspathoids. The Ce content of these categories of phillipsite varies. Phillipsite along cracks is richer in Ce while phillipsite associated with calcite has lower Ce concentration and the phillipsite alteromorphs very little or no Ce. Various stages of fluid circulation are proposed hereby to explain the variations in phillipsite generation and composition.     

Fluid-assisted granulite metamorphism: A continental journey

Lower crustal granulites, which constitute the base of all continents, belong to two series: high-pressure granulites generated by crustal thickening (subduction) and (ultra)high-temperature granulites associated with crustal extension. Fluid inclusions and metasomatic features indicate that the latter were metamorphosed in the presence of low-water activity fluids (high-density CO₂ and brines), which have invaded the lower crust at peak metamorphic conditions (fluid-assisted granulite metamorphism). High-pressure and (ultra)high-temperature granulites commonly occur along elongated paired belts. They were formed, from the early Proterozoic onwards, during a small number of active periods lasting a few hundreds of m.y. These periods were separated from each other by longer periods of stability. Each period ended with the formation of a supercontinent whose amalgamation coincided with low- to medium pressure (ultra)high-temperature granulite metamorphism, immediately before continental break-up. It is proposed that large quantities of mantle-derived CO₂ stored in the lower crust at the final stage of supercontinent amalgamation, are released into the hydro- and atmosphere during breakup of the supercontinent. Fluid-assisted granulite metamorphism, therefore, appears to be an important mechanism for transferring deep mantle fluids towards the Earth's surface. Possible consequences were, for example, the sudden end of Proterozoic glaciations, as well as the post-Cambrian explosion of life.     

Birkhoff's normalization

Birkhoff's normalizing canonical transformation at an equilibrium of elliptic type with no internal resonance can be built explicitly and recursively, without partial inversions or substitutions, by means of Lie transforms.Invariant sections and ordinary families of periodic orbits for truncated normalized systems are analyzed in detail.     

Connexion porphyre cuprifère–épithermaux de type low-sulfidation : analyse structurale et représentation 3D du secteur de Bolcana,monts Apuseni,Roumanie

The AuPbZn low-sulfidation epithermal ore deposits of Troita, Trestia, and Magura (Apuseni Mountains, Romania) are spatially related to the Bolcana Cu-porphyry. In an attempt to demonstrate the connection between these mineralizations, a geometric study was made based on structural measurements and GOCAD^© geomodeller 3D representation of deposits. This study indicates that a specific spatial distribution of the different Au and PbZn veins of the epithermal deposits occurs around the Cu-porphyry, which cannot result from telescoped systems. To cite this article: O. Cardon et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Estimation of subsidence using GPS measurements,and related hazard: the Pingtung Plain,southwestern Taiwan

Four years of GPS measurements were done since 1996 in southwestern Taiwan in order to investigate crustal deformation and land subsidence. The network of 48 stations revealed the velocity field in the Pingtung Plain. Horizontal velocities range from 31 to 54 mm?yr^?1 towards azimuths 247° to 273°. They show clear anti-clockwise deviation in the coastal area, consistent with tectonic transtension related to lateral escape at the transition collision–subduction. The deformation resembles a particle flow towards a free boundary, and is not a rigid rotation. Vertical velocities range from +13 to $?25\text{mm}{\text{yr}}^{\mathrm{?1}}$. Twenty stations show fast subsidence in the coastal area, with rates averaging $?16\text{mm}/\text{yr}$. The comparison with Holocene subsidence suggests that about 75% of the present-day subsidence result from decreasing groundwater level induced by over-pumping, adding significant short-term component to the natural risk resulting from long-term tectonic subsidence. To cite this article: C.-S. Hou et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

用人工神经网络进行空间不完备数据的插补

在地学研究中,特别是区域性资料处理过程中,常常遇到“不完备数据”的问题,即所谓的“数据不全”。在尽量减小估计误差的条件下对缺失数据进行预测或插补,对于充分利用历史资料和已知信息,提高预测质量具有重要意义。利用径向基人工神经网络(RBF)同时具有自组织神经网络和回归网络的优点,可以对缺失数据进行预测。实际区域地球化学数据处理的结果表明,RBF网络对空间不完备数据的建模和预测具有优异的效果。     

The Rotation of Europa

We present a semi-analytical theory of the rotation of Europa the Galilean satellite of Jupiter. The theory is semi-analytical in the sense that it is based on a synthetic theory of the orbit of Europa developed by Lainey. The theory is developed in the framework of Hamiltonian mechanics, using Andoyer variables and assumes that Europa is a rigid body. We consider this theory as a first step toward the modelization of a non rigid Europa covered by an ocean.     

Analytical Approach to the Secular Behaviour of Exoplanetary Systems

We analyse the secular interactions of two coplanar planets which are not in mean motion resonances. The analysis is based on a high order (order 12) expansion of the perturbative potential in powers of the eccentricities. The model depends on only two parameters (the ratio of semi-major axis and the mass ratio of the planets) and can be reduced to a one degree of freedom system, allowing for an exhaustive parametric analysis. Following Pauwels [Pauwels T.: 1983, Celet. Mech. & Dyn. Astro. 30, 229–247] we map the phase space on a sphere, avoiding in this way the artificial singularities introduced by other mappings. We show that the 12 order expansion is able to describe correctly most of the exosolar planetary systems discovered so far, even if the eccentricities of these planets are considerably larger than the eccentricities of our own solar system. The expansion is even able to reproduce, at moderate eccentricities, the secular resonances discovered numerically by Michtchenko and Malhotra [Michtchenko, T. A. and Malhotra, R.: 2004, Icarus 168, 237–248] at moderate to large eccentricities. FNRS Research Fellow.