Mid-Holocene hemlock decline and diatom communities in van Nostrand Lake, Ontario, Canada

Terrestrial ecosystem disturbances inferred from the fossil hemlock pollen decline (ca. 4,800 BP) and recovery (ca. 3,800 BP) affected van Nostrand Lake, including the diatom communities. Ecological models suggest the lake responded by eutrophying, reflecting higher nutrient influx resulting from increased erosion. A decline in lake productivity followed as the forest vegetation recovered and erosion slowed. Lastly, as the forest switched from early and middle successional species to mature species, lake productivity increased as erosion increased nutrient inflow, especially phosphorus. However, this eutrophication response was delayed or buffered, perhaps due to wetland development surrounding the lake. The lake never fully returned to its initial, pre-hemlock decline state, but oscillated between more eutrophic and more mesotrophic or oligotrophic stages, possibly reflecting other disturbances in the catchment and climatic change.     

Spectral analysis of earthquake migration in South America

Earthquake migration along linear seismic belts is investigated by analyzing spacetime diagrams using spectral analysis. In order to sample the earthquakes in the space-time domain, they must first be convolved with a (sinx sint)/xt surface to obtain an unbiased and alias free twodimensional Fourier spectrum. Further enhancements are provided by selectively stacking patterns (a pattern is defined as the distribution of earthquakes in space and time before a particular earthquake), thereby reinforcing the similarities within the various patterns. With these techniques, it is possible to quantitatively estimate the migration rates (from theirspatial frequencies) and recurrence intervals (from theirtemporal frequencies) of large earthquakes in South America.Preliminary examination of the spectra for South America indicates that a low frequency peak occurs at approximately 2500 km and 27 years for earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.7. The results suggest a migration rate of approximately 95 km/yr from south to north and a recurrence interval of 27 years.     

Including prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling

In this paper we propose a methodology to include prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters for modelling the soil moisture content in the unsaturated zone. Laboratory measurements on undisturbed soil cores were used to estimate the moisture retention curve and hydraulic conductivity curve parameters. The soil moisture content was measured at 25 locations along three transects and at three different depths (surface, 30 and 60 cm) on an 80×20 m hillslope for the year 2001. Soil cores were collected in 84 locations situated in three profile pits along the hillslope. For the estimation of the effective soil hydraulic parameters the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values was used as prior information. A two-horizon single column 1D MIKE SHE model based on Richards' equation was set-up for nine soil moisture measurement locations along the middle transect of the hillslope. The goal of the model is to simulate the soil moisture profile at each location. The shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm has been applied to estimate effective model parameters using either wide parameter ranges, referred to as the ‘no-prior’ case, or the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values as prior information (‘prior’ case). When the prior information is incorporated in the SCE optimisation the goodness-of-fit of the model predictions is only slightly worse compared to when no-prior information is incorporated. However, the effective parameter estimates are more realistic when the prior information is incorporated. For both the no-prior and prior case the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure (GLUE) was subsequently used to estimate the uncertainty bounds (UB) on the model predictions. When incorporating the prior information more parameter sets were accepted for the estimation of the predictive uncertainty and the parameter values were more realistic. Moreover, UB better enclosed the observations. Thus, incorporating prior information in GLUE reduces the amount of model evaluations needed to obtain sufficient behavioural parameter sets. The results indicate the importance of prior information in the SCE and GLUE parameter estimation strategies.     

伊犁北部博罗霍努岩体年代学和地球化学研究及其大地构造意义

博罗霍努岩体是发育在新疆伊犁北部的一个大型海西期花岗岩体,总体沿近SE-NW向分布,出露面积逾2000km^2。该岩体主要包括三类花岗岩：灰黑色辉石闪长岩、浅色黑云母花岗岩和紫红色黑云母钾长花岗岩。锆石U-Pb La-ICP-MS定年表明,辉石闪长岩的年龄为301±7Ma．黑云母花岗岩的年龄范围为294±7～285±7Ma,而黑云母钾长花岗岩则形成于280±5～266±6Ma。岩石地球化学分析显示,黑云母花岗岩和钾长花岗岩以准铝或弱过铝I型花岗岩为主,个别属于弱过铝S型花岗岩。在微量元素方面,这些花岗岩均富集轻稀土而亏损重稀土,但来自两个剖面的花岗岩具有不同的稀土元素配分模式,可能代表它们的岩浆源区有所不同,因此需要进一步对这些花岗岩进行同位素地质学研究。相对于洋脊花岗岩而言,博罗霍努岩体的花岗岩明显富集K,Rb,Ba和Th,同时,显著亏损Nb,Ta,Y和Yb。以上地球化学特征及微量元素判别图表明,这些花岗岩类形成于俯冲有关的火山岛弧环境。结合伊犁及邻区岩浆岩的特征及其时代,可以认为博罗霍努岩体的形成与天山北部洋壳向南的俯冲造山作用有关。西天山北部俯冲造山作用最终在中二叠世结束,并在中—晚二叠世进入陆内造山和伸展拉张阶段。     

Spatial Variation of Sea-Spray Fluxes over a Mediterranean Coastal Zone Using a Sea-State Model

We first deal with sea-spray flux estimates for short fetch conditions in coastal Mediterranean areas. To this end, a sea-state dependent model for the whitecap fraction was included in three different formulations for the sea-spray source function. A comparison with the sea-spray fluxes, calculated on the basis of aerosol size distributions measured at the island of Porquerolles located south off the French Riviera, evaluates the predictions of different whitecap dependant flux formulations. Then we deal with the spatial distribution of the whitecap fraction and the sea-spray fluxes in the study area. To achieve this, a whitecap dependant flux formulation was forced by a wave numerical model that was implemented in the study area. Experimental results on wave conditions have been used to adjust the model in the Mediterranean coastal area. Numerical simulations of wave and whitecap coverage have been carried out during typical regional wind events, and they show a nonhomogeneous distribution of the sea-surface production over the northern Mediterranean as a consequence of the spatial variation of the sea state. In particular, we note the occurrence of a narrow band of high sea-surface production following the northern coast and along the east part of the Gulf of Lions.     

Detailed surface co-seismic displacement of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in western Taiwan and implication of fault geometry in the shallow subsurface

The northern segment of the Chelungpu Fault shows an unusually large co-seismic displacement from the event of the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in western Taiwan. Part of the northern segment near the Fengyuan City provides an excellent opportunity for characterizing active thrust-related structures due to a dense geodetic-benchmark network. We reproduced co-seismic deformation patterns of a small segment of this Chelungpu Fault using 924 geodetic benchmarks. According to the estimated displacement vectors, we identified secondary deformations, such as local rigid-block rotation and significant shortening within the hanging wall. The data set also allows us to determine accurately a 3D model of the thrust fault geometry in the shallow subsurface by assuming simple relations between the fault slip, and the horizontal and vertical displacements at the surface. The predicted thrust geometry is in good agreement with borehole data derived from two drilling sites close to the study area. The successful prediction supports our assumptions of rigid displacement and control of displacement in the hanging wall by the fault geometry being useful first approximations.     

Sediment diffusive fluxes of Fe,Mn, and P in a eutrophic lake: Contribution from lateral vs bottom sediments

Water column data and porewater profiles are used to study the chemical evolution with time and with depth of a eutrophic lake. By using different approaches, diffusion fluxes for dissolved iron, manganese and phosphate are calculated and used to describe the processes occurring at the sediment-water interface as well as in the hypolimnion of the lake. These data are used in the elaboration of a qualitative model to describe the chemical behaviour of the sedimentary interface of an anoxic lake with emphasis on the Fe/P/S system. Acorona model is proposed to explain the evolution with time of the diffusion process by estimating the relative contribution of bottom and lateral sediment surfaces to the total fluxes of dissolved elements diffusing from the sediment to the overlying water. As the hypolimnion becomes more anoxic, it has been observed that lateral sediment surfaces (16 to 10 meters in depth) represents a larger supplier of diffusing dissolved components than the bottom sediment portion (bottom to 18 meters).     

Variability in Solomon Sea circulation derived from altimeter sea level data

The Solomon Sea is a key region in the Pacific Ocean where equatorial and subtropical circulations are connected. The region exhibits the highest levels in sea level variability in the entire south tropical Pacific Ocean. Altimeter data was utilized to explore sea level and western boundary currents in this poorly understood portion of the ocean. Since the geography of the region is extremely intricate, with numerous islands and complex bathymetry, specifically reprocessed along-track data in addition to standard gridded data were utilized in this study. Sea level anomalies (SLA) in the Solomon Sea principally evolve at seasonal and interannual time scales. The annual cycle is phased by Rossby waves arriving in the Solomon Strait, whereas the interannual signature corresponds to the basin-scale ENSO mode. The highest SLA variability are concentrated in the eastern Solomon Sea, particularly at the mouth of the Solomon Strait, where they are associated with a high eddy kinetic energy signal that was particularly active during the phase transition during the 1997–1998 ENSO event. Track data appear especially helpful for documenting the fine structure of surface coastal currents. The annual variability of the boundary currents that emerged from altimetry compared quite well with the variability seen at the thermocline level, as based on numerical simulations. At interannual time scales, western boundary current transport anomalies counterbalance changes in western equatorial Pacific warm water volume, confirming the phasing of South Pacific western boundary currents to ENSO. Altimetry appears to be a valuable source of information for variability in low latitude western boundary currents and their associated transport in the South Pacific.     

Experiments on phase transformations and chemical reactions of mechanically activated minerals by grinding: Petrogenetic implications

Prolonged grinding increases the energy of solids by the production of stored energy in the form of new surfaces and internal defects. Moreover, grinding also generates quasi-hydrostatic pressures which can result in polymorphic transformations and mineral decomposition. Here we demonstrate the solid-state transformation of metastable to stable polymorphs (aragonite → calcite, anatase → rutile); the transformation of low-pressure to high-pressure phases (calcite → aragonite); and the lowering of the dehydration and decarbonation temperatures of minerals (siderite → magnetite or hematite, diaspore → corundum).In the presence of a fluid phase, stored energy from grinding can be released, resulting in accelerated reaction rates and, more importantly, phase transformations. In this paper we demonstrate the following transformations: ground calcite → magnesian calcite (at low Mg²⁺ concentration in solution), ground calcite → aragonite (at high Mg²⁺ concentration), ground magnesite → hydromagnesite, and ground dolomite → aragonite + Mg²⁺.Assuming an analogy between laboratory and natural grinding, tectonic activity may have important consequences on the release of hydrothermal fluids, the solubilization of minerals and on solid-state transformations. As examples the possible role of deformation on the formation of metamorphic aragonite and diaspore-bauxites is discussed.     

Prévision des crues éclair

Flash-flood events resulting from paroxystic meteorological events concentrated in time and space are insufficiently documented as they produce destructive effects. They are hardly measurable and present single features that are not transposable to another event. In the South of France, the flash flood of November 1999 gives a perfect illustration of these characteristics. The physical complexity of the process and consequently the volume and the variety of the data to take into account are incompatible with the real time constraint allocated to the forecasters confronted to the occurrence of such phenomena. So, we have to make choices to afford acceptable simplifications to the complete mechanical model. MARINE (‘Modélisation de l'Anticipation du Ruissellement et des Inondations pour des évéNements Extrêmes’) is the operational and robust tool we developed for flash-flood forecasting. This model complies with the criterions of real-time simulation. It is a physically based distributed model composed of two parts: first the flood runoff process simulation in the upstream part of the basin modelled from a rainfall–runoff approach, then the flood propagation in the main rivers described by the Saint-Venant equations. It integrates remote sensed data – Digital Elevation Model, land-use map, hydrographic network for the observations from satellites and the rainfall evolution from meteorological radar. The main goal of MARINE is to supply real time pertinent information to the forecasters. Results obtained on the Orbieu River (Aude, France) show that this model is able to supply pertinent flood hydrograph with a sufficient precision for the forecasting service to take the appropriate safety decisions. Furthermore, MARINE has already been tested in the French National Flood Forecasting Service of Haute-Garonne in real conditions. To cite this article: V. Estupina Borrell et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).