Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)

The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.     

Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks

Multi-risk approaches have been recently proposed to assess and compare different risks in the same target area. The key points of multi-risk assessment are the development of homogeneous risk definitions and the treatment of risk interaction. The lack of treatment of interaction may lead to significant biases and thus to erroneous risk hierarchization, which is one of primary output of risk assessments for decision makers. In this paper, a formal statistical model is developed to treat interaction between two different hazardous phenomena in long-term multi-risk assessments, accounting for possible effects of interaction at hazard, vulnerability and exposure levels. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through two illustrative examples, dealing with the influence of (1) volcanic ash in seismic risk and (2) local earthquakes in tsunami risk. In these applications, the bias in single-risk estimation induced by the assumption of independence among risks is explicitly assessed. An extensive application of this methodology at regional and sub-regional scale would allow to identify when and where a given interaction has significant effects in long-term risk assessments, and thus, it should be considered in multi-risk analyses and risks hierarchization.     

Horizontal rotation signals detected by “G-Pisa” ring laser for the M w = 9.0, March 2011, Japan earthquake

We report the observation of the ground rotation induced by the M _w = 9.0, 11th of March 2011, Japan earthquake. The rotation measurements have been conducted with a ring laser gyroscope operating in a vertical plane, thus detecting rotations around the horizontal axis. Comparison of ground rotations with vertical accelerations from a co-located force balance accelerometer shows excellent ring laser coupling at periods longer than 100?s. Under the plane wave assumption, we derive a theoretical relationship between horizontal rotation and vertical acceleration for Rayleigh waves. Due to the oblique mounting of the gyroscope with respect to the wave direction of arrival, apparent velocities derived from the acceleration/rotation rate ratio are expected to be always larger than or equal to the true wave propagation velocity. This hypothesis is confirmed through comparison with fundamental mode, Rayleigh-wave phase velocities predicted for a standard Earth model.     

Wavefield tomography based on local image correlations

The estimation of a velocity model from seismic data is a crucial step for obtaining a high‐quality image of the subsurface. Velocity estimation is usually formulated as an optimization problem where an objective function measures the mismatch between synthetic and recorded wavefields and its gradient is used to update the model. The objective function can be defined in the data‐space (as in full‐waveform inversion) or in the image space (as in migration velocity analysis). In general, the latter leads to smooth objective functions, which are monomodal in a wider basin about the global minimum compared to the objective functions defined in the data‐space. Nonetheless, migration velocity analysis requires construction of common‐image gathers at fixed spatial locations and subsampling of the image in order to assess the consistency between the trial velocity model and the observed data. We present an objective function that extracts the velocity error information directly in the image domain without analysing the information in common‐image gathers. In order to include the full complexity of the wavefield in the velocity estimation algorithm, we consider a two‐way (as opposed to one‐way) wave operator, we do not linearize the imaging operator with respect to the model parameters (as in linearized wave‐equation migration velocity analysis) and compute the gradient of the objective function using the adjoint‐state method. We illustrate our methodology with a few synthetic examples and test it on a real 2D marine streamer data set.     

HVSR technique as tool for thermal-basin characterization: a field example in N-E Italy

The Euganean thermal basin, located in the Eastern Po plain (Italy), is one of the most important thermal districts of Italy (Euganean–Berician Thermal District). The presence of hot water in the basin has brought about its exploitation over time. The thermal area has been known since the Roman Empire and is still of crucial interest for the profitable use of its hydro-geological resources. For these reasons the water cycle of the thermal area has been thoroughly studied, in particular with regard to its chemical and hydrogeological properties. The effects of well pumping, such as subsidence and water temperature steadiness, have been monitored over time. In the present work, the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) single station microtremor technique was applied as a non-invasive geophysical tool for the characterization of a part of the Euganean–Berician thermal district involving the municipalities of Abano and Montegrotto towns. This study represents the first correlation between the results from microtremor geophysical surveys and the thermal basin geological structure, including remote sensing data and thermal well information. More than 50 HVSR measurements from single stations were collected and analysed, in close correlation with the vast amount of available borehole logs, well exploitation data and SAR interferometry measurements collected for the monitoring of land subsidence induced by thermal water pumping. The aim of the work was to evaluate the suitability of the microtremor technique for the preliminary characterization of a thermal basin, in terms of resonance properties of the alluvial deposits covering the rocky bedrock, evaluated by means of HVSR methods. HVSR results were interpreted in terms of regional geological setting and hydrogeological properties of the subsoil. Our field results confirmed the existence of significant correlations between the resonance behaviour of the basin determined by the HVSR technique and the geological structures, suggesting that single station measurements are a promising tool for creating a rapid and preliminary non-invasive contribution to the characterization of the geothermal basin.     

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.