The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.     

Submarine channel initiation,filling and maintenance from sea‐floor geomorphology and morphodynamic modelling of cyclic steps

Advances in acoustic imaging of submarine canyons and channels have provided accurate renderings of sea‐floor geomorphology. Still, a fundamental understanding of channel inception, evolution, sediment transport and the nature of the currents traversing these channels remains elusive. Herein, Autonomous Underwater Vehicle technology developed by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute provides high‐resolution perspectives of the geomorphology and shallow stratigraphy of the San Mateo canyon‐channel system, which is located on a tectonically active slope offshore of southern California. The channel comprises a series of crescent‐shaped bedforms in its thalweg. Numerical modelling is combined with interpretations of sea‐floor and shallow subsurface stratigraphic imagery to demonstrate that these bedforms are likely to be cyclic steps. Submarine cyclic steps compose a morphodynamic feature characterized by a cyclic series of long‐wave, upstream‐migrating bedforms. The bedforms are cyclic steps if each bedform in the series is bounded by a hydraulic jump in an overriding turbidity current, which is Froude‐supercritical over the lee side of the bedform and Froude‐subcritical over the stoss side. Numerical modelling and seismic‐reflection imagery support an interpretation of weakly asymmetrical to near‐symmetrical aggradation of predominantly fine‐grained net‐depositional cyclic steps. The dominant mode of San Mateo channel maintenance during the Holocene is interpreted to be thalweg reworking into aggrading cyclic steps by dilute turbidity currents. Numerical modelling also suggests that an incipient, proto‐San Mateo channel comprises a series of relatively coarse‐grained net‐erosional cyclic steps, which nucleated out of sea‐floor perturbations across the tectonically active lower slope. Thus, the interaction between turbidity‐current processes and sea‐floor perturbations appears to be fundamentally important to channel initiation, particularly in high‐gradient systems. Offshore of southern California, and in analogous deep‐water basins, channel inception, filling and maintenance are hypothesized to be strongly linked to the development of morphodynamic instability manifested as cyclic steps.     

Morphology and geology of the continental shelf and upper slope of southern Central Chile (33°S–43°S)

The continental shelf and slope of southern Central Chile have been subject to a number of international as well as Chilean research campaigns over the last 30 years. This work summarizes the geologic setting of the southern Central Chilean Continental shelf (33°S–43°S) using recently published geophysical, seismological, sedimentological and bio-geochemical data. Additionally, unpublished data such as reflection seismic profiles, swath bathymetry and observations on biota that allow further insights into the evolution of this continental platform are integrated. The outcome is an overview of the current knowledge about the geology of the southern Central Chilean shelf and upper slope. We observe both patches of reduced as well as high recent sedimentation on the shelf and upper slope, due to local redistribution of fluvial input, mainly governed by bottom currents and submarine canyons and highly productive upwelling zones. Shelf basins show highly variable thickness of Oligocene-Quaternary sedimentary units that are dissected by the marine continuations of upper plate faults known from land. Seismic velocity studies indicate that a paleo-accretionary complex that is sandwiched between the present, relatively small active accretionary prism and the continental crust forms the bulk of the continental margin of southern Central Chile.     

Constraining input and output fluxes of the southern-central Chile subduction zone: water,chlorine and sulfur

In this paper, we constrain the input and output fluxes of H₂O, Cl and S into the southern-central Chilean subduction zone (31°S–46°S). We determine the input flux by calculating the amounts of water, chlorine and sulfur that are carried into the subduction zone in subducted sediments, igneous crust and hydrated lithospheric mantle. The applied models take into account that latitudinal variations in the subducting Nazca plate impact the crustal porosity and the degree of upper mantle serpentinization and thus water storage in the crust and mantle. In another step, we constrain the output fluxes of the subduction zone both to the subcontinental lithospheric mantle and to the atmosphere–geosphere–ocean by the combined use of gas flux determinations at the volcanic arc, volume calculations of volcanic rocks and the combination of mineralogical and geothermal models of the subduction zone. The calculations indicate that about 68 Tg/m/Ma of water enters the subduction zone, as averaged over its total length of 1,480 km. The volcanic output on the other hand accounts for 2 Tg/m/Ma or 3 % of that input. We presume that a large fraction of the volatiles that are captured within the subducting sediments (which accounts for roughly one-third of the input) are cycled back into the ocean through the forearc. This assumption is however questioned by the present lack of evidence for major venting systems of the submarine forearc. The largest part of the water that is carried into the subduction zone in the crust and hydrated mantle (accounting for two-thirds of the input) appears to be transported beyond the volcanic arc.     

Application of a hydrometeorological model chain to investigate the effect of global boundaries and downscaling on simulated river discharge

In the current study, two regional climate models (MM5 and REMO) driven by different global boundary conditions (the ERA40 reanalysis and the ECHAM5 model) are one-way coupled to the uncalibrated hydrological process model PROMET to analyze the impact of global boundary conditions, dynamical regionalization and subsequent statistical downscaling (bilinear interpolation, correction of subgrid-scale variability and combined correction of subgrid-scale variability and bias) on river discharge simulation. The results of 12 one-way coupled model runs, set up for the catchment of the Upper Danube (Central Europe) over the historical period 1971–2000, prove the expectation that the global boundaries applied to force the RCMs strongly influence the accuracy of simulated river discharge. It is, however, noteworthy that all efficiency criteria in case of bias corrected MM5 simulations indicate better performance under ERA40 boundaries, whereas REMO-driven hydrological simulations better correspond to measured discharge under ECHAM5 boundaries. Comparing the hydrological results achievable with MM5 and REMO, the application of bias-corrected MM5 simulations turned out to allow for a more accurate simulation of discharge, while the variance in simulated discharge in most cases was better reflected in case of REMO forcings. The correction of subgrid-scale variability within the downscaling of RCM simulations compared to a bilinear interpolation allows for a more accurate simulation of discharge for all model configurations and all discharge criteria considered (mean monthly discharge, mean monthly low-flow and peak-flow discharge). Further improvements in the hydrological simulations could be achieved by eliminating the biases (in terms of deviations from observed meteorological conditions) inherent in the driving RCM simulations, regardless of the global boundary conditions or the RCM applied. In spite of all downscaling and bias correction efforts described, the RCM-driven hydrological simulations remain less accurate than those achievable with spatially distributed meteorological observations.     

Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,Ghana

Coastal towns along the coast of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding and sea level rise. Yet, because coastal conditions in many parts of the region are poorly understood, knowledge on which population groups are at the most risk is less known, particularly in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana, where the capital city Accra is located. Without adequate information about the risk levels and why, the implementation of locally appropriate adaptation plans may be less effective. This study enriches our understanding of the levels of flood risks along the coast of GAMA and contributes knowledge to improve understanding of place-specific adaptation plans. The study uses data from a 300-household survey, stakeholder meetings, and interviews with local community leaders to construct an integrated vulnerability index. The index includes seven components made up of: dwelling type; house and house environment; household socioeconomic characteristics; experience and perception of flood risk; household and community flood adaptation strategies; house location, and physical characteristics. Our findings show that exposure to floods, particularly from local flash floods is relatively high in all communities. However, significant differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the communities were observed due to differences in location, socioeconomic characteristics, and perception of risks to flooding and sea level rise. The complexity of factors involved in the determination of local-level vulnerability requires that the implementation of adaptation strategies needs to involve cross-sectorial partnerships, involving local communities, in building a comprehensive multi-risk adaptation strategy.     

Low-cost water-lifting from groundwater sources: a comparison of the EMAS Pump with the Rope Pump

In sub-Saharan Africa, low-cost groundwater supply systems offer great opportunities for the current unserved population of >300 million to access drinking water. A comparative study was performed in Uganda of the EMAS Pump (designed by Escuela Móvil Aguas y Saneamiento Básico) with the trade-named Rope Pump, two low-cost manual water-lifting devices appropriate to pumping from shallow groundwater sources. Pumping rates, energy expended, material costs, and construction requirements were analyzed. Focus was on low-cost application for use in shallow groundwater systems at the household level in developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The study site was northern Uganda, with testing performed at several drilled boreholes. Two variants of each pump were tested by a male and female user, pumping from multiple static water-level depths ranging from 5 to 28 m. Results demonstrated the most common version of the EMAS Pump to perform similarly to the comparable version of the Rope Pump in terms of average pumping rate at depth range 5 to 18 m (93–111%), but less so at deeper depths (63–85%). Normalized pumping rates (considering energy expended) accentuated differences between these versions of the EMAS Pump and Rope Pump (47–97%). Cost of materials to construct the EMAS Pump were 21–60% those of the Rope Pump, and EMAS Pump construction requirements were also less. Based on the assessed factors, it is concluded that the EMAS Pump has potential for success in “self-supply” groundwater systems in sub-Saharan Africa and is particularly appropriate to link with low-cost shallow groundwater sources.     

A New LA‐ICP‐MS Method for Ti in Quartz: Implications and Application to High Pressure Rutile‐Quartz Veins from the Czech Erzgebirge

Experimental determination of the pressure and temperature controls on Ti solubility in quartz provides a calibration of the Ti‐in‐quartz (TitaniQ) geothermometer applicable to geological conditions up to ~ 20 kbar. We present a new method for determining ⁴⁸Ti mass fractions in quartz by LA‐ICP‐MS at the 1 μg g^?1 level, relevant to quartz in HP‐LT terranes. We suggest that natural quartz such as the low‐CL rims of the Bishop Tuff quartz (determined by EPMA; 41 ± 2 μg g^?1 Ti, 2s) is more suitable than NIST reference glasses as a reference material for low Ti mass fractions because matrix effects are limited, Ca isobaric interferences are avoided, and polyatomic interferences at mass 48 are insignificant, thus allowing for the use of ⁴⁸Ti as a normalising mass. Average titanium mass fraction from thirty‐three analyses of low temperature quartz from the Czech Erzgebirge is 0.9 ± 0.2 μg g^?1 (2s) using ⁴⁸Ti as a normalising mass and Bishop Tuff quartz rims as a reference material. The 2s average analytical uncertainty for individual analyses of ⁴⁸Ti is 8% for 50 μm spots and 7% for 100 μm spots, which offers much greater accuracy than the 21–41% uncertainty (2s) incurred from using ⁴⁹Ti as an analyte.     

New Reference Materials,Analytical Procedures and Data Reduction Strategies for Sr Isotope Measurements in Geological Materials by LA-MC-ICP-MS

Laser ablation multi-collector mass spectrometry (LA-MC-ICP-MS) has emerged as the technique of choice for in situ measurements of Sr isotopes in geological minerals. However, the method poses analytical challenges and there is no widely adopted standardised approach to collecting these data or correcting the numerous potential isobaric inferences. Here, we outline practical analytical procedures and data reduction strategies to help establish a consistent framework for collecting and correcting Sr isotope measurements in geological materials by LA-MC-ICP-MS. We characterise a new set of plagioclase reference materials, which are available for distribution to the community, and present a new data reduction scheme for the Iolite software package to correct isobaric interferences for different materials and analytical conditions. Our tests show that a combination of Kr-baseline subtraction, Rb-peak-stripping using βRb derived from a bracketing glass reference material, and a CaCa or CaAr correction for plagioclase and CaCa or CaAr + REE²⁺ correction for rock glasses, yields the most accurate and precise ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr measurements for these materials. Using the analytical and correction procedures outlined herein, spot analyses using a beam diameter of 100 μm or rastering with a 50–65 μm diameter beam can readily achieve < 100 ppm 2SE repeatability ("internal") precision for ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr measurements for materials with < 1000 μg g^-1 Sr.