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51.
52.
J. Elizabeth Jackson Michael G. Yost Catherine Karr Cole Fitzpatrick Brian K. Lamb Serena H. Chung Jack Chen Jeremy Avise Roger A. Rosenblatt Richard A. Fenske 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):159-186
Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures. 相似文献
53.
Indigenous Australians’ knowledge of weather and climate 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands
of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still
rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living ‘on country’, many of these communities
have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes
in them. Some of this knowledge is recorded in their oral history passed down through generations, documented in seasonal
weather calendars in local languages and, to a limited degree, transcribed and translated into English. This knowledge is
still highly valued by these communities today, as it is used to direct hunting, fishing and planting as well as to inform
many seasonally dependant cultural events. In recent years, local observations have been recognised by non-Indigenous scientists
as a vital source of environmental data where few historic records exist. Similar to the way that phenological observations
in the UK and US provide baseline information on past climates, this paper suggests that Indigenous observations of seasonal
change have the potential to fill gaps in climate data for tropical northern Australia, and could also serve to inform culturally
appropriate adaptation strategies. One method of recording recent direct and indirect climate and weather observations for
the Torres Strait Islands is documented in this paper to demonstrate the currency of local observations of climate and its
variability. The paper concludes that a comprehensive, participatory programme to record Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
knowledge of past climate patterns, and recent observations of change, would be timely and valuable for the communities themselves,
as well as contributing to a greater understanding of regional climate change that would be useful for the wider Australian
population. 相似文献
54.
This article discusses how people often neglect the financial costs associated with driving. As a consequence they take trips that are contrary to their own self-interest and cause unnecessary harm to the environment through carbon emissions. Two empirical studies demonstrate that when people do explicitly consider financial costs they are inclined to drive less. The article concludes by offering several solutions to help people learn and account for their driving costs. 相似文献
55.
Gunther KLETETSCHKA Robert J. LILLIS Norman F. NESS Mario H. ACUÑA Jack E. P. CONNERNEY Peter J. WASILEWSKI 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(1):131-140
Abstract— Intense magnetic anomalies over Martian surface suggest preservation of large volumes of very old crust (>3 Gyr) that formed in the presence of a global magnetic field. The global distribution of the magnetic intensities observed above the Martian crust suggests a division into three zones. Zone 1 is where the magnetic signature is negligible or of relatively low intensity at Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) satellite mapping altitude (400 km). Zone 2 is the region of intermediate crustal magnetic amplitudes and zone 3 is where the highest magnetic intensities are measured. Crater demagnetization near zone 3 reveals the presence of rocks with both high magnetic intensity and coercivity. Magnetic analyses of terrestrial rocks show that compositional banding in orogenic zones significantly enhances both magnetic coercivity and thermal remanent magnetization (TRM) efficiency. Such enhancement offers a novel explanation for the anomalously large intensities inferred of magnetic sources on Mars. We propose that both large magnetic coercivity and intensity near the South Pole is indicative of the presence of a large degree of deformation. Associated compositional zoning creates conditions for large scale magnetic anisotropy allowing magnetic minerals to acquire magnetization more efficiently, thereby causing the distinct magnetic signatures in zone 3, expressed by intense magnetic anomalies. We use a simple model to verify the magnetic enhancement. We hypothesize that magnetically enhanced zone would reside over the down welling plume at the time of magnetization acquisition. 相似文献
56.
Structural controls on fractured coal reservoirs in the southern Appalachian Black Warrior foreland basin 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Richard H. Groshong Jr. Jack C. Pashin Marcella R. McIntyre 《Journal of Structural Geology》2009,31(9):874
Coal is a nearly impermeable rock type for which the production of fluids requires the presence of open fractures. Basin-wide controls on the fractured coal reservoirs of the Black Warrior foreland basin are demonstrated by the variability of maximum production rates from coalbed methane wells. Reservoir behavior depends on distance from the thrust front. Far from the thrust front, normal faults are barriers to fluid migration and compartmentalize the reservoirs. Close to the thrust front, rates are enhanced along some normal faults, and a new trend is developed. The two trends have the geometry of conjugate strike-slip faults with the same σ1 direction as the Appalachian fold-thrust belt and are inferred to be the result of late pure-shear deformation of the foreland. Face cleat causes significant permeability anisotropy in some shallow coal seams but does not produce a map-scale production trend. 相似文献
57.
Stable isotope ratios obtained from pronghorn teeth recovered from archaeological sites in southwestern Wyoming may provide information on past climate and hunter behavior. However, the interpretation of archaeological isotope values depends on pronghorn isotopic correlations with the environment and geography. To investigate these correlations, a series of modern Wyoming carbon, oxygen and strontium isoscapes are compared with recent temperature, humidity and geological variation. Results indicate that both pronghorn and sagebrush carbon, and to a lesser degree oxygen, isotope ratios are tied to relative humidity. Temperature is correlated with oxygen isotope ratios in sagebrush, but not pronghorn. Strontium isotope ratios in both sagebrush and pronghorn vary with geography, which in turn reflects variation in geology. 相似文献
58.
We review past work using broad emission lines as virial estimators of black hole masses in quasars. Basically one requires estimates of the emitting region radius and virial velocity dispersion to obtain black hole masses. The three major ways to estimate the broad-line emitting region (BLR) radius involve: (1) direct reverberation mapping, (2) derivation of BLR radius for larger samples using the radius-luminosity correlation derived from reverberation measures, and (3) estimates of BLR radius using the definition of the ionization parameter solved for BLR radius (photoionization method). At low redshift (z ? 0.7) FWHM Hβ serves as the most widely used estimator of virial velocity dispersion. FWHM Hβ can provide estimates for tens of thousands of quasars out to z ≈ 3.8 (IR spectroscopy beyond z ≈ 1). A new photoionization method also shows promise for providing many reasonable estimates of BLR radius via high S/N IR spectroscopy of the UV region 1300–2000 Å. FWHM Mgiiλ2800 can serve as a surrogate for FWHM Hβ in the range 0.4 ? z ? 6.5 while civλ1549 is affected by broadening due to non-virial motions and best avoided (i.e. there is no clear conversion factor between FWHM Hβ and FWHM Civλ1549). Most quasars yield mass estimates in the range 7 ? log MBH ? 9.7. There is no strong evidence for values above 10.0 and there may be evidence for a turnover in the maximum black hole mass near z ≈ 5. 相似文献
59.
60.
Muddy sediments with their potential for containing contaminants are commonly deposited and remobilized by tidal currents in estuarine environments. We examined the mobilization and subsequent redeposition of mud in a coastal plain estuary located in the southeastern United States. Time-series data for salinity, suspended sediment concentrations and quality (percent organic matter and pigment concentrations) were obtained over a 13-hour tidal cycle. We found that fast-settling mud particles are found during the highest tidal current speeds. Particle quality analyses suggest that all the material is of similar origin, and that phaeopigment can be used as a tracer of particles in this system. These particles settle onto the bed when current speeds approach slack conditions. We speculate that the quantity of mud mobilized during neap tide is less than during spring tide resulting in an opportunity for the mud to partially consolidate on the bottom and be removed from resuspension. We further speculate that the muddy sediments are mainly derived from fringing marshes in this estuary. 相似文献