Tree-Ring Analysis And Natural Hazard Chronologies: Minimum Sample Sizes And Index Values*

Tree-ring dating is employed to reconstruct chronologies of occurrence for a variety of natural hazards. The number of trees sampled varies greatly as does the minimum number of tree-ring responses. The number of trees to be sampled and an acceptable tree-ring response index should be dictated by the nature and geographical extent of the specific hazard under study. Repetitive sampling of different numbers of 30 avalanche-damaged trees showed significant differences in number of tree-ring responses over a 55-year-period. More sampling and use of a higher minimum response index allowed greater confidence in the chronology constructed from tree-rings and compared to historical records. Three geographic scales of analysis that can confound tree-ring responses are identified, and three guidelines for choosing sample size, given variations in processes, are suggested.     

The fate of ejecta from Hyperion

Ejecta from Saturn's moon Hyperion are subject to powerful perturbations from nearby Titan, which control their ultimate fate. We have performed numerical integrations to simulate a simplified system consisting of Saturn (including optical flattening as well as dynamical oblateness), its main ring system (treated as a massless flat annulus), the moons Tethys, Dione, Titan, Hyperion, and Iapetus, and the Sun (treated simply as a massive satellite). At several different points in Hyperion's orbit, 1050 massless particles, more or less evenly distributed over latitude and longitude, were ejected radially outward from 1 km above Hyperion's mean radius at speeds 10% faster than escape speed from Hyperion. Most of these particles were removed within the first few thousand years, but ∼3% of them survived the entire 100,000-year duration of the simulations. Ejecta from Hyperion are much more widely scattered than previously thought, and can cross the orbits of all of Saturn's satellites. About 9% of all the particles escaped from the saturnian system, but Titan accreted ∼78% of the total, while Hyperion reaccreted only ∼5%. This low efficiency of reaccretion may help to account for Hyperion's small size and rugged shape. Only ∼1% of all the particles hit other satellites, and another ∼1% impacted Saturn itself, while ∼3% of them struck its main rings. The high proportion of impacts into Saturn's rings is surprising; these collisions show a broad decline in impact speed with time, suggesting that Hyperion ejecta gradually spread inwards. Additional simulations were used to investigate the dependence of ejecta evolution on launch speed, the mass of Hyperion, and the presence of the Sun. In general, the wide distribution of ejecta from Hyperion suggests that it does contribute to “Population II” craters on the inner satellites of Saturn. Ejecta which escape from a satellite into temporary orbit about its planet, but later reimpact into the same moon or another one produce “poltorary” impacts, intermediate in character between primary and secondary impacts. It may be possible to distinguish poltorary craters from primary and secondary craters on the basis of morphology.     

Morphology,sedimentary bedforms and sand transport across a ridge- and- runnel beach under the action of summer waves

As part of a collaborative study between the 3rd Institute of Oceanography, Xiamen, and the U. K. Universities of East Anglia and St. Andrews, a 4-day experiment was conducted on a ridge- and- runnel beach of north Norfolk on the North Sea coast. Detailed surveys were made of every low water of an area 10m by 30m and electromagnetic current meters were used to measure wave-induced currents over the ridge and in the runnel. The locations of bedform fields were noted, fluorescent sand was used to follow the sand movement and, at the end of the experiment, lacquer peels were taken of the top 0.2m of a vertical section through the ridge- and- runnel. During the 4 days 0.75m³ of sand per metre width of beach accreted in the runnel and a similar volume was eroded from the upper foreshore. The dominant shoreward transport, identified qualitatively by the movement of the fluorescent sand, suggests the ridge- and- runnel system migrated shorewards up the general beach slope of 1^o by 2–3m. The wave orbital currents were used to predict the bedforms to be expected over the tidal cycle: an upper phase plane- bed was predicted for most of the period but vortex and rolling- grain ripples were predicted and observed when the water level over the ridge was low. As the tide dropped ripples on the ridge were eliminated by swash action but the ripples in the runnel were protected by the ridge and remained on the beach after the tide dropped. The observed accretion of the beach in the runnel and on the lee slope of the ridge was used to calculate that a net average shoreward transport of 0.11g/cm·s⁻¹ occurred over the ridge crest during the period it was underwater. The current meter measurements of the wave orbital currents and the mean currents over the ridge crest were used with the wave- current interaction model of Grant and Madsen (1982), ripple dimensions defined by Nielsen (1981), and resuspension coefficient of Vincent and Green (1990), to compute bedload sand transport rates from the equations of Madsen and Grant (1976), Sleath (1978), and Vincent et al. (1981), and also the suspended sand transport rates. The results from one of these bedload equations (Madsen and Grant, 1976) compared well with the observed net transport. The calculated suspended load transport rates (due to steady currents alone) were a factor of 5 too great, and were also several orders of magnitude greater than suspended transport rates measured directly under similar or more energetic wave and current conditions.     

Terrestrial planet formation surrounding close binary stars

Most stars reside in binary/multiple star systems; however, previous models of planet formation have studied growth of bodies orbiting an isolated single star. Disk material has been observed around both components of some young close binary star systems. Additionally, it has been shown that if planets form at the right places within such disks, they can remain dynamically stable for very long times. Herein, we numerically simulate the late stages of terrestrial planet growth in circumbinary disks around ‘close’ binary star systems with stellar separations 0.05 AU?aB?0.4 AU and binary eccentricities 0?eB?0.8. In each simulation, the sum of the masses of the two stars is 1 M_⊙, and giant planets are included. The initial disk of planetary embryos is the same as that used for simulating the late stages of terrestrial planet formation within our Solar System by Chambers [Chambers, J.E., 2001. Icarus 152, 205-224], and around each individual component of the α Centauri AB binary star system by Quintana et al. [Quintana, E.V., Lissauer, J.J., Chambers, J.E., Duncan, M.J., 2002. Astrophys. J. 576, 982-996]. Multiple simulations are performed for each binary star system under study, and our results are statistically compared to a set of planet formation simulations in the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system that begin with essentially the same initial disk of protoplanets. The planetary systems formed around binaries with apastron distances QB≡aB(1+eB)?0.2 AU are very similar to those around single stars, whereas those with larger maximum separations tend to be sparcer, with fewer planets, especially interior to 1 AU. We also provide formulae that can be used to scale results of planetary accretion simulations to various systems with different total stellar mass, disk sizes, and planetesimal masses and densities.     

Radiocaesium and 210Pb in Clyde sea loch sediments

Analysis of ²¹⁰Pb, ²²⁶Ra, ¹³⁷Cs and ¹³⁴Cs in short sediment cores provide first estimates of deposition rates in some Clyde sea lochs. The radio-caesium nuclides originate mainly in the liquid effluent released at distance from the Clyde by the Windscale nuclear fuel reprocessing plant and their concentrations in Clyde sediments provide information on (a) enrichment factors onto particulate matter, (b) surficial mixing coefficients and (c) sedimentation rates. A radiocaesium residence time in coastal waters of ca. 10³ years reflects the importance of scavenging by the high nearshore particulate flux. ²¹⁰Pb levels in sediments are controlled, in the unsupported fraction, by a major input sorbed on catchment particulates and, in the supported component, by ²²⁶Ra activities occasionally perturbed by unusually high surface values probably of planktonic origin. In one loch, detectable levels of ¹³⁴Cs and ⁶⁰Co are attributed to their discharge by nuclear submarines.     

Formation and photochemistry of Methylamine in Jupiter's atmosphere

The formation of methylamine (CH₃NH₂) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere of Jupiter is investigated. Translationally hot hydrogen atoms are produced in the photolysis of ammonia, phosphine, and acetylene which react with methane to produce methyl (CH₃) radicals; the latter recombine with NH₂ to form CH₃NH₂. Also, methane is catalytically dissociated to CH₃ + H by the species C₂ and C₂H produced in the photolysis of acetylene. It is shown that the combined production of CH₃NH₂ and subsequent photolysis to HCN is unlikely to account for the HCN observed near Jupiter's tropopause. Recombination of NH₂ and C₂H₅N followed by photolysis to HCN is the preferred path. Production of C₂H₆ by these two processes is negligible in comparison to the downward flux of C₂H₆ from the Lyman α photolysis region of CH₄. An upper limit column density on CH₃PH₂ is estimated to be ～10¹³ cm^?2 as compared to 10¹⁵ cm^?2 for CH₃NH₂. Hot H atoms account for a negligible fraction of the total ortho-para conversion by the reaction H + H₂     

A distant planetary-mass solar companion may have produced distant detached objects

Most known trans-neptunian objects (TNO's) are either on low eccentricity orbits or could have been perturbed to their current trajectories via gravitational interactions with known bodies. However, one or two recently-discovered TNO's are distant detached objects (DDO's) (perihelion, q>40 AU and semimajor axis, a>50 AU) whose origins are not as easily understood. We investigate the parameter space of a hypothetical distant planetary-mass solar companion which could detach the perihelion of a Neptune-dominated TNO into a DDO orbit. Perturbations of the giant planets are also included. The problem is analyzed using two models. In the first model, we start with a distribution of undetached, low-inclination TNO's having a wide range of semimajor axes. The planetary perturbations and the companion perturbation are treated in the adiabatic, secularly averaged tidal approximation. This provides a starting point for a more detailed analysis by providing insights as to the companion parameter space likely to create DDO's. The second model includes the companion and the planets and numerically integrates perturbations on a sampling that is based on the real population of scattered disk objects (SDO's). A single calculation is performed including the mutual interactions and migration of the planets. By comparing these models, we distinguish the distant detached population that can be attributable to the secular interaction from those that require additional planetary perturbations. We find that a DDO can be produced by a hypothetical Neptune-mass companion having semiminor axis, bc?2000 AU or a Jupiter-mass companion with bc?5000 AU. DDO's produced by such a companion are likely to have small inclinations to the ecliptic only if the companion's orbit is significantly inclined. We also discuss the possibility that the tilt of the planets' invariable plane relative to the solar equatorial plane has been produced by such a hypothetical distant planetary-mass companion. Perturbations of a companion on Oort cloud comets are also considered.