Investigating model performance and parameter sensitivity for runoff simulation across multiple events for a large green roof

Green roofs are a form of green infrastructure aimed at retaining or slowing the movement of precipitation as stormwater runoff to sewer systems. To determine total runoff versus retention from green roofs, researchers and practitioners alike employ hydrologic models that are calibrated to one or more observed events. However, questions still remain regarding how event size may impact parameter sensitivity, how best to constrain initial soil moisture (ISM), and whether limited observations (i.e., a single event) can be used within a calibration-validation framework. We explored these questions by applying the storm water management model to simulate a large green roof located in Syracuse, NY. We found that model performance was very high (e.g., Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index > 0.8 and Kling-Gupta efficiency index > 0.8) for many events. We initially compared model performance across two parameterizations of ISM. For some events, we found similar performance when ISM was varied versus set to zero; for others, varying ISM yielded higher performance as well as greater water balance closure. Within a calibration-validation framework, we found that calibrating to larger events tended to produce moderate to high performance for other non-calibration events. However, very small storms were notoriously difficult to simulate, regardless of calibration event size, as these events are likely fully retained on the roof. Using regional sensitivity analysis, we confirmed that only a subset of model parameters was sensitive across 16 events. Interestingly, many parameters were sensitive regardless of event size, though some parameters were more sensitive when simulating smaller events. This emphasizes that storm size likely influences parameter sensitivity. Overall, we show that while calibrating to a single event can achieve high performance, exploring simulations across multiple events can yield important insight regarding the hydrologic performance of green roofs that can be used to guide the gathering of in situ properties and observations for refining model frameworks.     

Extreme alkali bicarbonate- and carbonate-rich fluid inclusions in granite pegmatite from the Precambrian Rønne granite,Bornholm Island,Denmark

Our study of fluid and melt inclusions in quartz and feldspar from granite pegmatite from the Precambrian Rønne granite, Bornholm Island, Denmark revealed extremely alkali bicarbonate- and carbonate-rich inclusions. The solid phases (daughter crystals) are mainly nahcolite [NaHCO₃], zabuyelite [Li₂CO₃], and in rare cases potash [K₂CO₃] in addition to the volatile phases CO₂ and aqueous carbonate/bicarbonate solution. Rare melt inclusions contain nahcolite, dawsonite [NaAl(CO₃)(OH)₂], and muscovite. In addition to fluid and melt inclusions, there are primary CO₂-rich vapor inclusions, which mostly contain small nahcolite crystals. The identification of potash as a naturally occurring mineral would appear to be the first recorded instance. From the appearance of high concentrations of these carbonates and bicarbonates, we suggest that the mineral-forming media were water- and alkali carbonate-rich silicate melts or highly concentrated fluids. The coexistence of silicate melt inclusions with carbonate-rich fluid and nahcolite-rich vapor inclusions indicates a melt-melt-vapor equilibrium during the crystallization of the pegmatite. These results are supported by the results of hydrothermal diamond anvil cell experiments in the pseudoternary system H₂O–NaHCO₃–SiO₂. Additionally, we show that boundary layer effects were insignificant in the Bornholm pegmatites and are not required for the origin of primary textures in compositionally simple pegmatites at least.     

Ferruginous thermal spring complexes, northwest Tasmania: evidence that far-field stresses acting on a fracture mesh can open and maintain vertical flow in carbonate terrains

Far-field stress changes in the southern Australian plate since 5 Ma have produced significant areas of uplift and seismicity. In northwest Tasmania, there is evidence that this stress reorientation to maximum horizontal NW?CSE stress has influenced meteoric-derived thermal (15?C20°C) discharge patterns of confined karstic aquifers, by placing pre-existing NW-trending faults/fractures into a dilated state or a critically stressed state. Previous studies have shown that spring discharge has operated continuously for at least 65,000 years, and has transported large volumes of solutes to the surface to be deposited as mounds of calcite-goethite-silica up to 7 m high. The thermal spring chemistry at one site, Mella, is consistent with descent to at least 1.2?C1.5 km, although the hinterland within 50 km is less than 500 m elevation. Thermal spring chemistry is consistent with most of the deep water?Crock interaction occurring in low-strontium Smithton Dolomite. While some of this water is discharged at springs, some instead intersects shallow zones of NE-fracture-controlled rock (2?×?4 km in area) with karstic permeability where, although confined and subject to a NE-directed hydraulic gradient, it circulates and cools to ambient temperature, with only minor mixing with other groundwaters.     

Long-term regional hurricane hazard analysis for wind and storm surge

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the long-term regional hurricane wind and storm surge hazard. The output is a relatively small set of hurricane scenarios that together represent the regional hazard. For each scenario, the method produces a hazard-consistent annual occurrence probability, and wind speeds and surge levels throughout the study area. These scenarios can be used for subsequent evacuation or loss estimation modeling. This optimization-based probabilistic scenario (OPS) method involves first simulating tens of thousands of candidate hurricane scenarios with wind speeds and approximate surge depths. A mixed-integer linear optimization is then used to select a subset of scenarios and assign hazard-consistent annual occurrence probabilities to each. Finally, a surge model is used to estimate accurate surge depths for the reduced set of events. The method considers the correlation between winds and surge depths and the spatial correlations of each; it is computationally efficient; and it makes explicit the tradeoff between the number of scenarios selected and the errors introduced by using a reduced set of events. A case study for Eastern North Carolina is presented in which a final set of 97 hurricanes provides unbiased results with errors small enough for many practical uses.     

Petrography,stable isotope compositions,microRaman spectroscopy,and presolar components of Roberts Massif 04133: A reduced CV3 carbonaceous chondrite

Here, we report the mineralogy, petrography, C‐N‐O‐stable isotope compositions, degree of disorder of organic matter, and abundances of presolar components of the chondrite Roberts Massif (RBT) 04133 using a coordinated, multitechnique approach. The results of this study are inconsistent with its initial classification as a Renazzo‐like carbonaceous chondrite, and strongly support RBT 04133 being a brecciated, reduced petrologic type >3.3 Vigarano‐like carbonaceous (CV) chondrite. RBT 04133 shows no evidence for aqueous alteration. However, it is mildly thermally altered (up to approximately 440 °C); which is apparent in its whole‐rock C and N isotopic compositions, the degree of disorder of C in insoluble organic matter, low presolar grain abundances, minor element compositions of Fe,Ni metal, chromite compositions and morphologies, and the presence of unequilibrated silicates. Sulfides within type I chondrules from RBT 04133 appear to be pre‐accretionary (i.e., did not form via aqueous alteration), providing further evidence that some sulfide minerals formed prior to accretion of the CV chondrite parent body. The thin section studied contains two reduced CV3 lithologies, one of which appears to be more thermally metamorphosed, indicating that RBT 04133, like several other CV chondrites, is a breccia and thus experienced impact processing. Linear foliation of chondrules was not observed implying that RBT 04133 did not experience high velocity impacts that could lead to extensive thermal metamorphism. Presolar silicates are still present in RBT 04133, although presolar SiC grain abundances are very low, indicating that the progressive destruction or modification of presolar SiC grains begins before presolar silicate grains are completely unidentifiable.     

Temporal Changes in Seawater Carbonate Chemistry and Carbon Export from a Southern California Estuary

Estuaries are important subcomponents of the coastal ocean, but knowledge about the temporal and spatial variability of their carbonate chemistry, as well as their contribution to coastal and global carbon fluxes, are limited. In the present study, we measured the temporal and spatial variability of biogeochemical parameters in a saltmarsh estuary in Southern California, the San Dieguito Lagoon (SDL). We also estimated the flux of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total organic carbon (TOC) to the adjacent coastal ocean over diel and seasonal timescales. The combined net flux of DIC and TOC (F_DIC?+?TOC) to the ocean during outgoing tides ranged from ??1.8±0.5?×?10³ to 9.5±0.7?×?10³?mol C h^?1 during baseline conditions. Based on these fluxes, a rough estimate of the net annual export of DIC and TOC totaled 10±4?×?10⁶?mol C year^?1. Following a major rain event (36 mm rain in 3 days), F_DIC?+?TOC increased and reached values as high as 29.0 ±?0.7?×?10³?mol C h^?1. Assuming a hypothetical scenario of three similar storm events in a year, our annual net flux estimate more than doubled to 25 ±?4?×?10⁶?mol C year^?1. These findings highlight the importance of assessing coastal carbon fluxes on different timescales and incorporating event scale variations in these assessments. Furthermore, for most of the observations elevated levels of total alkalinity (TA) and pH were observed at the estuary mouth relative to the coastal ocean. This suggests that SDL partly buffers against acidification of adjacent coastal surface waters, although the spatial extent of this buffering is likely small.     

High-resolution monitoring of complex coastal morphology changes: cross-efficiency of SfM and TLS-based survey (Vaches-Noires cliffs,Normandy, France)

High-resolution digital elevation models (HRDEMs) on coastal areas, particularly cliffs, are an important asset for analyzing and quantifying the processes affecting their morphology. The Vaches-Noires coastal cliffs, located at the north-western part of the Pays-d’Auge region (Normandy, France), are an ideal site for the study of subaerial and marine erosion processes. Indeed, the coastline evolves through the accumulation of deposits resulting from rotational landslides and/or mudflows at the base of the cliff which are then undermined by the sea. The 3D modeling of a representative sector of the cliffs appears a suitable solution to monitor and quantify this evolution using HRDEMs. This paper presents the whole of a monitoring protocol, with high spatial resolution and high temporal resolution, on an original location characterized by reliefs of Badlands in coastal environments. The first results of these investigations are described with an evaluation of two methods for the creation of 3D models: a “heavy” method by Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) monitoring, and a “light” method using “Structure from Motion” (SfM) terrestrial photogrammetry. The small investment of time in the field and money is an important asset of the SfM method. The textured rendering quality of the SfM model makes it a powerful tool for geomorphological analysis. According to a recurrent monitoring protocol involving both measurements, it was possible to compare the accuracy of the SfM and TLS models. The results show a high accuracy of the SfM models with an overall average error of 0.05 m. The representations of the zones of accumulation and erosion as well as their spatial succession allow to investigate the dynamics of the involved processes with both methods. Preliminary volume calculation results are conclusive for TLS models.     

Diversity of primary CL textures in quartz from porphyry environments: implication for origin of quartz eyes

Porphyry-style mineralization is related to the intrusion and crystallization of small stocks, which can be of different compositions (from intermediate to felsic) and can intrude into different host rocks (from magmatic to sedimentary). We used cathodoluminescence and electron probe microanalysis to study the internal textures of more than 300 quartz eyes from six porphyry deposits, Panguna (Papua New Guinea), Far Southeast porphyry (Philippines), Batu Hijau (Indonesia), Antapaccay (Peru), Rio Blanco (Chile) and Climax (USA). Significant diversity of the internal textures in quartz eyes was revealed, sometimes even within a single sample. Quartz grains with Ti-rich cores surrounded by Ti-poor mantles were found next to the grains showing the opposite Ti distribution or only slight Ti fluctuations.We propose that diversity of the internal patterns in quartz eyes can actually reflect in situ crystallization history, and that prolonged crystallization after magma emplacement under conditions of continuous cooling can account for the observed features of internal textures. Formation of quartz eyes begins at high temperatures with crystallization of high titanium Quartz 1, which as the melt becomes more and more evolved and cooler, is overgrown by low Ti Quartz 2. Subsequent fluid exsolution brings about dramatic change in the melt composition: OH ^? , alkalis and other Cl-complexed elements partition into the fluid phase, whereas Ti stays in the melt, contributing to a rapid increase in Ti activity. Separation of the fluid and its further cooling causes disequilibrium in the system, and the Quartz 2 becomes partially resorbed. Exsolution of the fluid gradually builds up the pressure until it exceeds the yield strength of the host rocks and they then fracture. This pressure release most likely triggers crystallization of Quartz 3, which is higher in Ti than Quartz 2 because Ti activity in the melt is higher and pressure of crystallization is lower. As a result of the reaction between the exsolved fluid and quartz a new phase, a so called ‘heavy fluid’ forms. From this phase Quartz 4 crystallizes. This phase has extremely high metal-carrying capacity, and may give a rise to mineralizing fluids. Finally, on the brink of the subsolidus stage, groundmass quartz crystallizes. Prolonged crystallization under conditions of continuous cooling accounts better for the diversity of CL textures than crystallization in different parts of a deep magma chamber. It is also in a better agreement with the existing model for formation of porphyry-style deposits.     

Transient small boats as a long-distance coastal vector for dispersal of biofouling organisms

Alaska is at the northern end of an apparent latitudinal trend of decreasing coastal marine introductions on the West Coast of North America. Historical propagule supply may have played a role in forming this trend, but few studies have evaluated propagule supply to northern latitudes. Here, we examined the role of small boat traffic as a mechanism of long-distance spread for nonindigenous species (NIS) into coastal Alaska. We used a combination of public records, marina surveys, and boater interviews to characterize vessel traffic patterns and boater behaviors. In-water SCUBA sampling of recently arrived transient boats provided data on extent, richness, composition, and biogeography of biofouling incursions to Alaska from outside of the state. We documented a striking seasonality and directionality of vessel traffic, and most vessels were on voyages of >900 km. Most transient vessels sampled had few organisms, although one third had >100 organisms on submerged surfaces. Several NIS were recorded, including two that are not known to be established in Alaska (Watersipora subtorquata and Amphibalanus improvisus). The seasonal northward pulse of vessels and their cumulative biofouling species represent an important incursion mechanism for species yet to establish at the northern edge of a marine bioinvasion front in the northeastern Pacific. The low numbers of NIS sampled in this study coincide with the low number of marine NIS known from Alaska, which suggests that an opportunity remains to promote awareness and management of the vector to limit NIS influx to the region. This may be particularly relevant for future scenarios of increased vessel traffic and ocean warming, which are likely to interact to increase establishment success of invaders from the south.