Analysis of nonlinear associations between prenatal methylmercury exposure from fish consumption and neurodevelopmental outcomes in the Seychelles Main Cohort at 17 years

The Seychelles Child Development Study has been examining the relationship between prenatal methylmercury (MeHg) exposure from consuming fish during pregnancy and child development. This study re-analyzes seven outcomes in the 17 year Main Cohort data to determine if there are nonlinear or non-homogeneous (subgroup) associations that were not identified in the linear analysis. We adopted two statistical approaches. First, we carried out an additive nonlinear analysis assuming homogeneous prenatal MeHg-outcome relationships to explore overall associations. Second, we applied the regression tree to the Woodcock–Johnson Calculation subtest (it was significantly associated in earlier analyses) and identified 4 clusters based on covariates. Then we used additive models to assess the prenatal MeHg association in each of the four clusters for all seven outcomes. This approach assumes nonlinear associations in each cluster and non-homogeneous associations between clusters. The additive nonlinear analysis yielded prenatal MeHg curves similar to the linear analysis. For the regression tree analysis, the curves relating prenatal MeHg to outcomes between the 4 clusters differed and some crossed at higher prenatal MeHg levels, suggesting non-homogeneity in the upper range of exposure. Additionally, some of the curves suggested a possible non-linear relationship within the range of exposure we studied. This non-linear analysis supports the findings from the linear analysis. It shows little evidence to support an adverse association of prenatal MeHg exposure through maternal consumption of fish contaminated with natural background levels. However, the tree analysis suggests that the prenatal exposure/outcome relationship may not be homogeneous across all individuals and that some subpopulations may have an adverse association in the upper range of the exposures studied. More robust data in the higher levels of exposure in this cohort are needed to confirm this finding.     

Crystal recycling in the steady-state system of the active Stromboli volcano: a 2.5-ka story inferred from in situ Sr-isotope and trace element data

In situ Sr-isotope data by microdrilling, coupled with major and trace element analyses, have been performed on plagioclase and clinopyroxene from seven samples collected during the 2002–2003 eruptive crisis at Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy). On 28 December 2002, the persistent moderate explosive activity was broken by an effusive event lasting about 7 months. A more violent explosion (paroxysm) occurred on 5 April 2003. Two magma types were erupted, namely a volatile-poor and highly porphyritic magma (HP-magma) poured out as scoria or lava and a volatile-rich, phenocryst-poor magma (LP-magma) found as pumice. LP-magma differs from the HP-magma also for its slightly less-evolved chemistry, the groundmass composition and the lower Sr-isotope ratios. Micro-Sr-isotope data show the presence of zoned minerals in strong isotope disequilibrium, as previously found in products erupted in 1984, 1985 and 1996 AD, with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values generally decreasing from cores to rims of minerals. Only some outer rims testify for equilibrium with the host groundmass. The internal mineral zones with high Sr-isotope ratios (0.70665–0.70618) are interpreted as ‘antecrysts’, crystallised during the previous activity and recycled in the present-day system since the opening shoshonitic activity of the Recent Period, which occurred at about 2.5 ka ago. This result has implications for the dynamics of the present-day plumbing system of Stromboli at intermediate pressure (about 2–3 km depth) and allows us to propose a model whereby an HP-magma reservoir is directly interconnected at the bottom with a cumulate crystal much reservoir. Efficient mixing between residing HP- and input LP-magmas can occur in this reservoir, due to more similar rheological characteristics of the two magmas than in the conduit, where crystallisation is enhanced by degassing. Antecrysts (and possibly melts) re-enter in the HP-magma reservoir both from the bottom, recycled by ascending LP-magmas crossing the crystal mush, and from the top, recycled by descending degassed and dense HP-magma, residual of the periodic Strombolian explosions at the surface. The isotope variation measured in the groundmasses allows calculating the proportion of the LP-magma entering the shallow HP-magma reservoir at ~20%. From this proportion, we estimate that the total volume of LP-magma input during 2002–2003 closely matches the magma volume erupted in the effusive event, suggesting a steady-state system at broadly constant volume. The comparison with estimates of the LP-magma volume ejected by the paroxysm indicates that the LP-magma amount directly reaching the surface during the 5 April paroxysm is minimal with respect to that entering the system.     

The temperature dependent,infrared absorption cross-sections for the chlorofluorocarbons: CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-13, CFC-14, CFC-22, CFC-113, CFC-114, and CFC-115

The infrared absorption cross-sections for eight commonly used halogenated methanes and ethanes have been measured as a function of temperature from 203 to 293 K. High resolution spectra (0.03 cm^-1) have been used to derive integrated band strengths and peak cross-sections associated with the spectral features in the infrared region from 600 to 1500 cm^-2. The values obtained in this study are compared to those from previous reports, and recommendations are made for uses in atmospheric sensing and radiative energy transfer models. The observed temperature dependence in the spectral features is also discussed.     

Paleomagnetism of gabbros of the Early Proterozoic Blachford Lake Intrusive Suite and the Easter Island dyke,Great Slave Lake,NWT: Possible evidence for the earliest continental drift

The Caribou Lake gabbro, part of the Blachford Lake Intrusive Suite accurately dated at –2186±10 mA, has a predominantNW–/SE+ magnetization with a mean, irrespective of sign, ofD=119°,I=50°, ₉₅=5° and a palaeopole 14°N, 064°W,A ₉₅=5°; it has not proved possible to determine if the magnetization is primary. The Easter Island dyke, less well-dated in the range –2200 to –2500 Ma, has a predominantWNW+ magnetization, whose mean, when corrected for an 8° tilt, isD=288°,I=46°, ₉₅=5 and palaeopole is 32°S, 2°W,A ₉₅=5°; the magnetization is probably primary. A vertical magnetization (D), not significantly different from the present field, occurs sporadically in both units and is considered to be Late Phanerozoic in age. Palaeopoles from the Caribou Lake gabbro and the Easter Island dyke, together with those already known from Early Proterozoic intrusives of the Archaean Slave Structural Province, roughly define a swath (the Slave Track) which maps the motion of the Slave Province relative to the geomagnetic axis during this interval. The corresponding array of palaeopoles (the Superior Track) from the Superior Structural Province does not fall in the same place. Hence it would appear that Slave and Superior were not in their present relative positions in the Early Proterozoic in disagreement with arguments that have been made for a fixed supercontinent during much of the Proterozoic. Mid-Proterozoic paleomagnetic signatures indicate that Slave and Superior had assumed their present relative position by about –1750 mA. These Early Proterozoic relative motions are the earliest for which there is palaeomagnetic evidence.Earth Physics Branch Contribution No. 1111.     

Ca-Fe-Mg olivines: phase relations and a solution model

Reversed phase equilibrium experiments in the system (Ca, Mg, Fe)₂SiO₄ provide four tielines at P?1 bar and 1 kbar and 800° C–1,100° C. These tielines have been used to model the solution properties of the olivine quadrilateral following the methods described by Davidson et al. (1981) for quadrilateral clinopyroxenes. The discrepancy between the calculated phase relations and the experimentally determined tielines is within the uncertainty of the experiments. The solution properties of quadrilateral olivines can be described by a non-convergent site-disorder model that allows for complete partitioning of Ca on the M2 site, highly disordered Fe-Mg cation distributions and limited miscibility between high-Ca and low-Ca olivines. The ternary data presented in this paper together with binary solution models for the joins Fo-Mo and Fa-Kst have been used to evaluate two solution parameters: $$\begin{gathered} F^0 \equiv 2(\mu _{{\rm M}o}^0 - \mu _{{\rm K}st}^0 ) + \mu _{Fa}^0 - \mu _{Fo}^0 = 12.660 (1.6) kJ, \hfill \\ \Delta G_*^0 \equiv \mu _{{\rm M}gFe}^0 + \mu _{FeMg}^0 - \mu _{Fo}^0 - \mu _{Fa}^0 = 7.030 (3.9) kJ. \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ . Ternary phase quilibrium data for olivines tightly constrain the value of F⁰, but not that for ΔG _* ⁰ which describes nonideality in Fe-Mg mixing. From this analysis, we infer a function for the apparent standard state energy of Kst: $$\begin{gathered} \mu _{{\rm K}st}^0 = - 102.79 \pm 0.8 - (T - 298)(0.137026) \hfill \\ + (T - 298 - T1n(T/298))(0.155519) \hfill \\ + (T - 298)^2 (2.8242E - 05)/2 \hfill \\ + (T - 298)^2 (2.9665E + 03)/(2T(298)^2 ) kJ \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ where T is in Kelvins and the 298 K value is relative to oxides.     

Biotic Feedbacks in the Warming of the Earth

A positive correlation exists between temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane over the last 220,000 years of glacial history, including two glacial and three interglacial periods. A similar correlation exists for the Little Ice Age and for contemporary data. Although the dominant processes responsible may be different over the three time periods, a warming trend, once established, appears to be consistently reinforced through the further accumulation of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere; a cooling trend is reinforced by a reduction in the release of heat-trapping gases. Over relatively short periods of years to decades, the correspondence between temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations may be due largely to changes in the metabolism of terrestrial ecosystems, whose respiration, including microbial respiration in soils, responds more sensitively, and with a greater total effect, to changes in temperature than does gross photosynthesis. Despite the importance of positive feedbacks and the recent rise in surface temperatures, terrestrial ecosystems seem to have been accumulating carbon over the last decades. The mechanisms responsible are thought to include increased nitrogen mobilization as a result of human activities, and two negative feedbacks: CO₂ fertilization and the warming of the earth, itself, which is thought to lead to an accumulation of carbon on land through increased mineralization of nutrients and, as a result, increased plant growth. The relative importance of these mechanisms is unknown, but collectively they appear to have been more important over the last century than a positive feedback through warming-enhanced respiration. The recent rate of increase in temperature, however, leads to concern that we are entering a new phase in climate, one in which the enhanced greenhouse effect is emerging as the dominant influence on the temperature of the earth. Two observations support this concern. One is the negative correlation between temperature and global uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems. The second is the positive correlation between temperature and the heat-trapping gas content of the atmosphere. While CO₂ fertilization or nitrogen mobilization (either directly or through a warming-enhanced mineralization) may partially counter the effects of a warming-enhanced respiration, the effect of temperature on the metabolism of terrestrial ecosystems suggests that these processes will not entirely compensate for emissions of carbon resulting directly from industrial and land-use practices and indirectly from the warming itself. The magnitude of the positive feedback, releasing additional CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O, is potentially large enough to affect the rate of warming significantly.     

Production of bioavailable and refractory dissolved organic matter by coastal heterotrophic microbial populations

Production of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by heterotrophic microbial communities isolated from Loch Creran (Scotland) was studied in time course incubations in which cells were re-suspended in artificial seawater amended with variable proportions of glucose, ammonium and phosphate. The incubation experiments demonstrated that microheterotrophs released part of the substrate as new DOM, with a production efficiency of 11 ± 1% for DOC, 18 ± 2% for DON and 17 ± 2% for DOP. Estimating the impact of this production in Loch Creran, showed that from 3 ± 1% (DOC) to 72 ± 16% (DOP) of DOM could originate from the heterotrophic microbial community. The produced DOM (PDOM) was both bioavailable (BDOM) and refractory (RDOM). Bioavailability as assessed by the difference between the maximum and the end DOM concentration, was generally higher than found in natural systems, with DOP (73 ± 15%, average ± SD) more bioavailable than DON (70 ± 15%), and DON than DOC (34 ± 13%).The stoichiometry of PDOM was linked to both nutrient uptake and BDOM ratios. Absorption and fluorescence of DOM increased significantly during the incubation time, indicating that microheterotrophs were also a source of coloured DOM (CDOM) and that they produce both bioavailable protein-like and refractory humic-like fluorophores.     

Forecasting seasonal to multi-year shoreline change

This contribution details a simple empirical model for forecasting shoreline positions at seasonal to interannual time-scales. The one-dimensional (1-D) model is a simplification of a 2-D behavioural-template model proposed by Davidson and Turner (2009). The new model is calibrated and tested using five-years of weekly video-derived shoreline data from the Gold Coast, Australia. The modelling approach first utilises a least-squares methodology to calibrate the empirical model coefficients using the first half of the dataset of observed shoreline movement in response to known forcing by waves. The model is then verified by comparison of hindcast shoreline positions to the second half of the observed shoreline dataset. One thousand synthetic time-series of wave height and period are generated that encapsulate the statistical characteristics of the modelled wave field, retaining the observed seasonal variability and sequencing characteristics. The calibrated model is used in conjunction with the simulated wave time-series to perform Monte Carlo forecasting of the resulting shoreline positions. The ensemble-mean of the 1000 individual five-year shoreline simulations is compared to the unseen shoreline time-series. A simple linear trend forecast of the shoreline position was used as a baseline for assessing the performance of the model. The model performance relative to this baseline prediction was quantified by several objective methods, including cross-correlation (r), root mean square (RMS) error analysis and Brier Skill tests. Importantly, these tests involved no prior knowledge of either the wave forcing or shoreline response. The new forecast model was found to significantly improve shoreline predictions relative to the simple linear trend model, capturing well both the trend and seasonal shoreline variabilities observed at this site. Brier Skill Scores (BSS) indicate that the model forecasts based on unseen data were rated as ‘excellent’ (BSS = 0.83), and root mean square errors were less than 7 m (≈ 14% of the observed variability). The standard deviations of the 1000 individual simulations from ensemble-averaged ‘mean’ forecast were found to provide a useful means of predicting the higher-frequency (individual storm) shoreline variability, with 98% of the observed shoreline data falling within two standard deviations of the forecast position.     

Extreme alkali bicarbonate- and carbonate-rich fluid inclusions in granite pegmatite from the Precambrian Rønne granite,Bornholm Island,Denmark

Our study of fluid and melt inclusions in quartz and feldspar from granite pegmatite from the Precambrian Rønne granite, Bornholm Island, Denmark revealed extremely alkali bicarbonate- and carbonate-rich inclusions. The solid phases (daughter crystals) are mainly nahcolite [NaHCO₃], zabuyelite [Li₂CO₃], and in rare cases potash [K₂CO₃] in addition to the volatile phases CO₂ and aqueous carbonate/bicarbonate solution. Rare melt inclusions contain nahcolite, dawsonite [NaAl(CO₃)(OH)₂], and muscovite. In addition to fluid and melt inclusions, there are primary CO₂-rich vapor inclusions, which mostly contain small nahcolite crystals. The identification of potash as a naturally occurring mineral would appear to be the first recorded instance. From the appearance of high concentrations of these carbonates and bicarbonates, we suggest that the mineral-forming media were water- and alkali carbonate-rich silicate melts or highly concentrated fluids. The coexistence of silicate melt inclusions with carbonate-rich fluid and nahcolite-rich vapor inclusions indicates a melt-melt-vapor equilibrium during the crystallization of the pegmatite. These results are supported by the results of hydrothermal diamond anvil cell experiments in the pseudoternary system H₂O–NaHCO₃–SiO₂. Additionally, we show that boundary layer effects were insignificant in the Bornholm pegmatites and are not required for the origin of primary textures in compositionally simple pegmatites at least.