Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

Wintertime rates of net primary production and nitrate and ammonium uptake in the southern Benguela upwelling system

The elevated levels of primary productivity associated with eastern boundary currents are driven by nutrient- rich waters upwelled from depth, such that these regions are typically characterised by high rates of nitrate-fuelled phytoplankton growth. Production studies from the southern Benguela upwelling system (SBUS) tend to be biased towards the summer upwelling season, yet winter data are required to compute annual budgets and understand seasonal variability. Net primary production (NPP) and nitrate and ammonium uptake were measured concurrently at six stations in the SBUS in early winter. While euphotic zone NPP was highest at the stations nearest to the coast and declined with distance from the shore, a greater proportion was potentially exportable from open-ocean surface waters, as indicated by the higher specific nitrate uptake rates and f-ratios (ratio of nitrate uptake to total nitrogen consumption) at the stations located off the continental shelf. Near the coast, phytoplankton growth was predominantly supported by ammonium despite the high ambient nitrate concentrations. Along with ammonium concentrations as high as 3.6 µmol l^–1, this strongly suggests that nitrate uptake in the inshore SBUS, and by extension carbon drawdown, is inhibited by ammonium, at least in winter, although this has also been hypothesised for the summer.     

Variation in Coronal Activity from Solar Cycle 24 Minimum to Maximum Using Three-Dimensional Reconstructions of the Coronal Electron Density from STEREO/COR1

Three-dimensional electron density distributions in the solar corona are reconstructed for 100 Carrington rotations (CR 2054?–?2153) during 2007/03?–?2014/08 using the spherically symmetric method from polarized white-light observations with the inner coronagraph (COR1) onboard the twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). These three-dimensional electron density distributions are validated by comparison with similar density models derived using other methods such as tomography and a magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model as well as using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)-C2. Uncertainties in the estimated total mass of the global corona are analyzed based on differences between the density distributions for COR1-A and -B. Long-term variations of coronal activity in terms of the global and hemispheric average electron densities (equivalent to the total coronal mass) reveal a hemispheric asymmetry during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24, with the northern hemisphere leading the southern hemisphere by a phase shift of 7?–?9 months. Using 14 CR (\(\approx13\)-month) running averages, the amplitudes of the variation in average electron density between Cycle 24 maximum and Cycle 23/24 minimum (called the modulation factors) are found to be in the range of 1.6?–?4.3. These modulation factors are latitudinally dependent, being largest in polar regions and smallest in the equatorial region. These modulation factors also show a hemispheric asymmetry: they are somewhat larger in the southern hemisphere. The wavelet analysis shows that the short-term quasi-periodic oscillations during the rising and maximum phases of Cycle 24 have a dominant period of 7?–?8 months. In addition, it is found that the radial distribution of the mean electron density for streamers at Cycle 24 maximum is only slightly larger (by \(\approx30\%\)) than at cycle minimum.     

Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161 km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes).     

Sea‐ice dynamics and CO2 sensitivity in a global climate model

Abstract

Present‐day results and CO₂ sensitivity are described for two versions of a global climate model (genesis) with and without sea‐ice dynamics. Sea‐ice dynamics is modelled using the cavitating‐fluid method of Flato and Hibler (1990, 1992). The atmospheric general circulation model originated from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1, but is heavily modified to include new treatments of clouds, penetrative convection, planetary boundary‐layer mixing, solar radiation, the diurnal cycle and the semi‐Lagrangian transport of water vapour. The surface models include an explicit model of vegetation (similar to BATS and SiB), multilayer models of soil, snow and sea ice, and a slab ocean mixed layer.

When sea‐ice dynamics is turned off, the CO₂‐induced warming increases drastically around ～60–80°S in winter and spring. This is due to the much greater (and unrealistic) compactness of the Antarctic ice cover without dynamics, which is reduced considerably when CO₂ is doubled and exposes more open ocean to the atmosphere. With dynamics, the winter ice is already quite dispersed for 1 × CO₂ so that its compactness does not decrease as much when CO₂ is doubled.     

Cumulate gabbros from the Southwest Indian Ridge, 54°S-7° 16′ E: implications for magmatic processes at a slow spreading ridge

A diverse volcanic and plutonic rock suite was recovered from the center of the 80 km long ridge segment of the Southwest Indian Ridge (54°S, 7°16 E) between the Islas Orcadas and Shaka Fracture Zones. The cumulus nature of the gabbroic rocks in the suite is indicated by phase, modal and cryptic layering, igneous lamination, and low incompatible element abundances. We present a mass-balance model for calculating the proportions and compositions of cumulus phases and crystallized intercumulus liquid from bulk-rock major element compositions. The model is based on the ability to define a compositional array of basaltic liquids and on the assumption that cumulus minerals are initially in equilibrium with trapped liquid. Calculated proportions of trapped liquid range from 3%–15%; values that are characteristic of adcumulates to mesocumulates. Models of postcumulus crystallization indicate significant enrichments of incompatible elements and buffering of compatible elements in residual trapped liquids, thus explaining the high TiO₂ contents observed in magnesian clinopyroxenes. Cumulus phase assemblages and compositions suggest solidification in shallow level magma chambers, but disequilibrium plagioclase compositions suggest some crystallization at greater depth. Furthermore, basalt compositions projected onto the olivine-clinopyroxenequartz pseudoternary suggest magma generation over a range of pressures (from less than 10 to greater than 20 kb) as well as polybaric fractional crystallization. We suggest that the Southwest Indian Ridge is characterized by low magma supply with small batches of melt that either ascend directly to the surface having undergone limited polybaric crystallization or are trapped in shallow crustal magma chambers where they evolve and solidify to form cumulate gabbros. The adcumulus nature of the gabbros investigated here suggests slow cooling rates typical of large intrusions implying relatively large, but ephemeral magma chambers below segments of the Southwest Indian Ridge.     

Alkaline hybrid mafic magmas of the Yampa area,NW Colorado,and their relationship to the Yellowstone mantle plume and lithospheric mantle domains

The Yampa volcanic field (late Miocene) consists of about 70 outcrops of monogenetic cinder cones, lavas, dykes, volcanic necks and hydrovolcanic pyroclastic deposits and is situated in the most northerly part of the Rio Grande rift. Contemporaneous extension in this part of the rift was small, but there is geological and geophysical evidence that, by the late Miocene, the area was underlain by hot asthenosphere convected by the Yellowstone mantle plume. The Yampa rocks are mafic and chemically diverse, including basanites, alkali basalts, potassic trachybasalts, hawaiites and shoshonites. About half the rocks bear the xenocryst suite feldspar, pyroxene, Fe–Ti oxide, amphibole, biotite. There is a tendency for xenocryst-free rocks to be the most mafic, interpreted to indicate that the xenocrysts are cognate, and represent cumulate material from fractional crystallization of the magmas in deep crustal magma chambers. The elemental and isotopic (Nd and Sr) variations can be modelled by mixing variable proportions of partial melts of local lithospheric mantle with an OIB end-member formed by partial melting of asthenosphere. The OIB end-member appears to have the elemental and isotopic composition of typical Northern Hemisphere OIB, in particular the plume-derived basanites of Loihi seamount, Hawaii. The OIB end-member at Yampa is interpreted to have been derived from mantle convected in the Yellowstone mantle plume.     

Triton: stratospheric molecules and organic sediments

Hydrocarbons and nitriles are produced in Triton's stratosphere by energetic electrons from Neptune's magnetosphere and other charged particle sources. Laboratory plasma experiments reported here show a substantial yield of molecules from low pressure flows of 10(-3) CH4 in N2 appropriate to Triton if both CH4 and N2 are saturated at the surface. An active magnetosphere similar to that of Uranus would result in a flux approximately 0.3 erg cm-2 s-1 of 0.1-1 MeV electrons in Triton's stratosphere; molecular production rates are then 10(6)-10(8) cm-2 s-1 for NH3, C2H2, HCN, and NCCN; tens of hundreds of gm cm-2 of these compounds per 10(9) yr (and lesser quantities of at least eight other molecules experimentally detected) would freeze to fine-grained white condensates in the lower stratosphere and sediment to the surface. Along with dark/colored organic haze produced in the stratosphere and other heteropolymers produced at the surface, these condensates are subjects to redistribution by aeolian processes and may appear as lag deposits and/or sediment layers. A simple eddy diffusion model indicates abundances approximately 10(19) molec cm-2 for HCN and C2H2, and > 10(17) molec cm-2 for NCCN, CH3CCH, CH2CCH2, and CH3CN in the stratosphere; these and other organic molecules will be detectable by IRIS if the stratosphere is (as expected) heated through ultraviolet and visible light absorption by the haze.     

Geomagnetic evolution: 400 years of change on planet Earth

Spherical harmonic coefficients of the geomagnetic field, calculated from historical observations of declination, inclination and intensity, and from archaeomagnetic inclination results, have been used to produce a film of geomagnetic change since 1600 A.D. The non-dipole geomagnetic field is found to be constantly changing: no fixed or standing non-dipole features are observed. Non-dipole foci are seen to have lifetimes of a few hundred years. The westward drift, which was an important feature of the 18th and early 19th century geomagnetic field, was less pronounced in the 17th century. The growth, evolution, decay and replacement of non-dipole foci, but not their movement are found to have been the major features producing century-long secular directional magnetic variation. Most of the low degree and order spherical harmonic coefficients have changed significantly over the last few hundred years. In particular the change in sign of the axisymmetric quadrupole around 1837 A.D. is noted. Sustained, century-long, intensity changes, however, appear to have been dominated by variations in the intensity of the centred dipole, rather than by non-dipole field fluctuations.