Assessing Winter Wheat Responses to Climate Change Scenarios: A Simulation Study in the U.S. Great Plains

Hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a major crop in the Great Plains region of the U.S. The goal of this assessment effort was to investigate the influence of two contrasting global climate change projections (U.K. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) on the yield and percent kernel nitrogen content of winter wheat at three locations in Nebraska. These three locations represent sub-humid and semi arid areas and the transition between these areas and are also representative of major portions of the winter wheat growing areas of the central Great Plains. Climate scenarios based on each of the projections for each location were developed using the LARS-WG weather generator along with data from automated weather stations. CERES-Wheat was used to simulate the responses for two contrasting cultivars of wheat using two sowing dates. The first sowing date represented current sowing dates appropriate for each location. The second sowing date was later and represents the approximate date when the mean air temperature from the climate scenarios is the same as the mean air temperature from the actual climate data at the current sowing dates. The yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios generally decrease going from the sub-humid eastern to the semi arid western parts of Nebraska. Results from these simulations indicate that yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios could not both be maintained at levels currently simulated. Protein content (directly related to kernel nitrogen content) and end-use quality are the primary determinants for the use of hard red winter wheat in baked goods. Nitrogen management and new cultivars, which can enhance the uptake and translocation of nitrogen, will be proactive steps to meet the challenges of global climate change as represented by these climate scenarios.     

Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience

On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances.     

An Intercomparison of Large-Eddy Simulations of the Stable Boundary Layer

Results are presented from the first intercomparison of large-eddy simulation (LES) models for the stable boundary layer (SBL), as part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study initiative. A moderately stable case is used, based on Arctic observations. All models produce successful simulations, in as much as they generate resolved turbulence and reflect many of the results from local scaling theory and observations. Simulations performed at 1-m and 2-m resolution show only small changes in the mean profiles compared to coarser resolutions. Also, sensitivity to subgrid models for individual models highlights their importance in SBL simulation at moderate resolution (6.25 m). Stability functions are derived from the LES using typical mixing lengths used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. The functions have smaller values than those used in NWP. There is also support for the use of K-profile similarity in parametrizations. Thus, the results provide improved understanding and motivate future developments of the parametrization of the SBL.     

A preliminary study of the effects of some flow parameters in the generation of poloidal and toroidal energies within a 3-D spherical thermal-convective system with variable viscosity

The effects of variable viscosity on flow dynamics within spherical shells are investigated using a finite-element thermal convection model, and preliminary result for cases with relatively low Rayleigh numbers and small viscosity contrasts are reported. These results demonstrate some general effects of viscosity variation on mantle dynamics, and, in particular, the generation of toroidal energy. Since lateral viscosity variations are necessary in the generation of toroidal motion in a thermally driven convective system, it is not surprising our results show that flows with greater viscosity contrasts produce greater amounts of toroidal energy. Our preliminary study further shows that solutions become more time-dependent as viscosity contrasts increase. Increasing the Rayleigh number is also found to increase the magnitude of toroidal energy. Internal heating, on the other hand, appears to lead to less toroidal energy compared wth bottom heating because it tends to produce a thermally more uniform interior and thus smaller viscosity variations.     

Use of Machine Learning Methods to Reduce Predictive Error of Groundwater Models

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically‐based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data‐driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically‐based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance‐based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real‐world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley‐Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically‐based model.     

西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳电性结构研究

为了探测西藏高原南部雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区地壳浅部和深部构造沿东西和南北方向的变化特征,在雅鲁藏布江缝合带地区布设了三条南北向剖面(错那—墨竹工卡、亚东—雪古拉、吉隆—措勤),采用超宽频带大地电磁测深方法进行了地壳、上地幔电性结构探测研究,发现该区主要电性结构特征为：1. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近表层发育大规模的高阻体,岩体延伸最深达30km以上,是冈底斯花岗岩体的反映. 2. 雅鲁藏布江缝合带的南部有小规模的良导体,在其下方和北侧发育有大规模良导体. 3. 沿剖面从南往北壳内普遍发育良导体,各良导体主体间是不连续的,规模逐渐增大,总体北倾,在缝合带附近产状较陡. 4. 在雅鲁藏布江缝合带附近良导体由西往东规模逐渐增大,导电性逐渐变好,相对雅鲁藏布江在剖面上的位置逐渐南移. 这些重要的电性特征可能是印度板块向北俯冲所形成的,深部大规模的良导体特征沿东西向的差异可能是板块碰撞引起物质沿东西向运移作用的结果.     

Transport of moderately sorted gravel at low bed shear stresses: The role of fine sediment infiltration

A reliable estimation of sediment transport in gravel‐bed streams is important for various practical engineering and biological studies (e.g., channel stability design, bed degradation/aggradation, restoration of spawning habitat). In the present work, we report original laboratory experiments investigating the transport of gravel particles at low bed shear stresses. The laboratory tests were conducted under unsteady flow conditions inducing low bed shear stresses, with detailed monitoring of the bed topography using a laser scanner. Effects of bed surface arrangements were documented by testing loose and packed bed configurations. Effects of fine sediments were examined by testing beds with sand, artificial fine sand or cohesive silt infiltrated in the gravel matrix. Analysis of the experimental data revealed that the transport of gravel particles depends upon the bed arrangement, the bed material properties (e.g., size and shape, consolidation index, permeability) and the concentration of fine sediments within the surface layer of moving grains. This concentration is directly related to the distribution of fine particles within the gravel matrix (i.e., bottom‐up infiltration or bridging) and their transport mode (i.e., bedload or suspended load). Compared to loose beds, the mobility of gravel is reduced for packed beds and for beds clogged from the bottom up with cohesive fine sediments; in both cases, the bed shear stress for gravel entrainment increases by about 12%. On the other hand, the mobility of gravel increases significantly (bed shear stress for particle motion decreasing up to 40%) for beds clogged at the surface by non‐cohesive sand particles. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula in coastal Queensland, Australia: disparate sites, common factors

During the last decade there has been a significant rise in observations of blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the east coast of Queensland, Australia. Whether the increase in cyanobacterial abundance is a biological indicator of widespread water quality degradation or also a function of other environmental change is unknown. A bioassay approach was used to assesses the potential for runoff from various land uses to stimulate productivity of L. majuscula. In Moreton Bay, L. majuscula productivity was significantly (p<0.05) stimulated by soil extracts, which were high in phosphorus, iron and organic carbon. Productivity of L. majuscula from the Great Barrier Reef was also significantly (p<0.05) elevated by iron and phosphorus rich extracts, in this case seabird guano adjacent to the bloom site. Hence, it is possible that other L. majuscula blooms are a result of similar stimulating factors (iron, phosphorus and organic carbon), delivered through different mechanisms.     

Structures caused by repeated freezing and thawing in various loamy sediments: A comparison of active,fossil and experimental data

In this paper, the authors present the results of both macroscopic and microscopic investigations on structure development created by repeated ice lensing in various loamy experiments. Experimental data are compared with observations performed on active forms in High Arctic and Alpine Mountain environments. Those observations are also compared with phenomena observed in fossil periglacial formations of Western Europe. Platy and short prismatic structure formation is bonded to the hydraulic and thermal conditions during ice segregation. When a long series of alternating freezing and thawing affects platy structures, the fabric evolves, also being influenced by slope and drainage conditions: cryoturbations, frostcreep, and gelifluction can appear. They are characterized by specific microfabrics which are better developed with an increasing number of cycles: this is clear in experiments where hydraulic and thermal parameters are better controlled. Vesicles are also a prominent characteristic of the surface horizon in experiments and arctic soils. The genesis of vesicles is discussed on the basis of new observations and is related to the mechanical collapse of frost-created aggregates under the mechanical work of soil air escape during soil saturation by water at thaw.     

Assessment of chemical dispersant effectiveness in a wave tank under regular non-breaking and breaking wave conditions

Current chemical dispersant effectiveness tests for product selection are commonly performed with bench-scale testing apparatus. However, for the assessment of oil dispersant effectiveness under real sea state conditions, test protocols are required to have hydrodynamic conditions closer to the natural environment, including transport and dilution effects. To achieve this goal, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed and constructed a wave tank system to study chemical dispersant effectiveness under controlled mixing energy conditions (regular non-breaking, spilling breaking, and plunging breaking waves). Quantification of oil dispersant effectiveness was based on observed changes in dispersed oil concentrations and oil-droplet size distribution. The study results quantitatively demonstrated that total dispersed oil concentration and breakup kinetics of oil droplets in the water column were strongly dependent on the presence of chemical dispersants and the influence of breaking waves. These data on the effectiveness of dispersants as a function of sea state will have significant implications in the drafting of future operational guidelines for dispersant use at sea.