Thermal regimes and degradation modes of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway

Permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is widespread, thin, and thermally unstable. Under a warming climate during the past few decades, it has been degrading extensively with generally rising ground temperatures, the deepening of the maximum summer thaw, and with lessening of the winter frost penetration. The permafrost has degraded downward, upward and laterally. Permafrost has thinned or, in some areas, has totally disappeared. The modes of permafrost degradation have great significance in geocryology, in cold regions engineering and in cold regions environmental management. Permafrost in the interior of the QTP is well represented along the Qing-hai-Tibet Highway (QTH), which crosses the Plateau through north to south and traverses 560 km of permafrost-impacted ground. Horizontally, the degradation of permafrost occurs more visibly in the sporadic permafrost zone in the vicinity of the lower limit of permafrost (LLP), along the margins of taliks, and around permafrost islands. Downward degradation develops when the maximum depth of seasonal thaw exceeds the maximum depth of seasonal frost, and it generally results in the formation of a layered talik disconnecting the permafrost from the seasonal frost layer. The downward degrada- tion is divided into four stages: 1) initial degradation, 2) accelerated degradation, 3) layered talik and 4) finally the conversion of permafrost to seasonally frozen ground (SFG). The upward degradation occurs when the geothermal gradient in permafrost drops to less than the geothermal gradients in the underlying thawed soil layers. Three types of permafrost temperature curves (stable, degrading, and phase-changing transitory permafrost) illustrate these modes. Although strong differentiations in local conditions and permafrost types exist, the various combinations of the three degradation modes will ultimately transform permafrost into SFG. Along the QTH, the downward degradation has been proceeding at annual rates of 6 to 25 cm, upward degradation at 12 to 30 cm, and lateral degradation in the sporadic permafrost zone at 62 to 94 cm during the last quarter century. These rates exceed the 4 cm per year for the past 20 years reported for the discontinuous permafrost zone in subarctic Alaska, the 3 to 7 cm per year reported in Mongolia, and that of the thaw-stable permafrost in subarctic Yakutia and Arctic Alaska.     

数字地震台电源管理的特点和维护要点

通过对数字地震台供电系统的需求进行分析,提出了适合于野外观测台站的电源管理模式,指出了供电系统的日常维护要点和具体方法。     

松辽盆地地浸砂岩型铀矿勘查及其找矿方向

20世纪90年代开始,在松辽盆地开展了地浸砂岩型铀矿区域评价工作.盆地的西南部投入数万米钻探工作量开展以第三系和上白垩统嫩江组、姚家组为目的层的找矿工作,取得了较大突破,发现并提交了我国第一个板状砂岩型铀矿床,所建立的双混合叠造铀成矿模式丰富了地浸砂岩型铀成矿理论.在此基础上总结出白垩系砂岩型铀成矿控矿因素和找矿标志.盆地东部构造反转有利于形成砂岩型铀矿床.第三系以潜水氧化为主,还原物质缺乏,而且新构造运动对其改造微弱,总的成矿条件不理想,不宜作为主攻目的层.盆地坳陷阶段沉积的泉头组、青山口组、姚家组为主要找矿目的层,找矿重点在盆地东南部通辽-双辽-德惠地区.下一步科研工作重点为:完善QJD砂岩型铀矿模式、盆地油气与铀成矿关系、白垩纪古水文地质条件的研究.     

DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.     

四川“金土地工程”区农业地质调查评价的方法

简要介绍了四川省地质调查院在"金土地工程"区开展农业地质调查评价试点研究项目的背景、目标任务、方法技术和提交的主要成果。通过试点研究,确定了该项工作的内容以土壤地球化学测量为主,地质、遥感等多种综合调查手段为辅的综合调查,其核心是土地质量的地球化学综合评估。     

基于ArcIMS构建WebGIS-T信息化服务理论研究

由于交通信息系统具有动态化、离散化等特点,原有的信息技术已经不能完全满足交通应用的实际需求;借助于WebGIS可以满足交通信息化的现代要求,为出行者提供方便、快捷的公交信息。但ArcIMS自带SQL查询是隐含式的,对于专题应用的查询,尤其是给公共信息服务带来了极大的不便。在分析WebGIS-T的大众化信息服务趋势的基础上,提出了一种基于ArcIMS构建的沈阳市公交换乘的自定义界面化查询方案,克服了ArcIMS的缺点。     

关于公皋井地下流体数字化观测资料应用的思考与探讨

本文对朝阳地震台公皋井地下流体数字化资料进行了详细的分析,对如何将这些观测资料应用于地震预报进行了探讨。     

城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究

风险管理研究已成为防灾减灾工作从“被动救灾”到“主动预防”转化的热门课题。本文回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足。提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法。最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法。     

成都经济区农业生态系统土壤镉通量研究

以四川成都经济区农业生态系统中的重金属Cd为对象,对其在土壤中的输入输出通量进行初步探索。综合各方面的因素,确定以大气干湿沉降、灌溉水、化肥为输入途径和农作物为输出途径进行研究。经过计算,经济区大气干湿沉降通量平均值为17.76g/hm2·a,灌溉水和化肥通量明显较低,三者对土壤Cd污染的贡献率分别为86%、10%和4%。对于6个不同的地区,三者比例略有差别,大气干湿沉降所占比例最高达94%,最低也达到了77%。Cd通过农作物收割输出的量相对较小。土壤Cd年净增量主要受大气干湿沉降的制约,因此大气环境质量应是重点监控的对象。以耕作土体为研究介质,经估算,当前的Cd年平均通量可引起土壤Cd的质量分数升高0.006mg/kg。     

宜万铁路马鹿箐隧道岩溶突水来源分析

马鹿箐隧道是宜万铁路22座长、特长隧道之一,全长7 879m,最大埋深600m。2006年1月21日发生特大突水事故,最大突水量达30×104m3/h,造成重大损失。为查明突水来源,在突水区附近约5km2范围内采集不同类型的水样21个,淤泥样2个,采用水文地球化学方法对这些水样进行水化学分析和同位素分析,还对淤泥和部分水样做了14C测年。通过对比样品分析结果,运用水文地球化学理论和同位素水文地质方法,认为突水来源为年代较老的溶洞封存水。